Betting the Belmont Derby on a $20 Budget

Divisidero enters the Belmont Derby off of two consecutive wins. (Photo by NYRA/Chelsea Durand)
The 2015 edition of the $1.25-million, Grade 1 Belmont Derby is one of the most anticipated races on Belmont Park's holiday "Stars & Stripes" card this Fourth of July. The race brings together a mix of international runners, graded stakes winners, improving horses and several unknown commodities. From a betting perspective, it's a fun race to try to dig into and construct a winning ticket.
In all likelihood, the surging Divisidero will go off as the favorite in the Belmont Derby. He's coming off a late-closing win in the Grade 2 American Turf Stakes at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby day and, perhaps, an even more impressive win in the Pennine Ridge Stakes at Belmont last out. While most saw the latter race as a tuneup for this one, Divisidero still delivered the goods, winning the race despite a poor break, making a wide middle move (rushed up into contention prematurely) and grinding out a score over Takeover Target - a horse who returns in this spot. If Divisidero didn't have his A-game there, it's scary to think how good he might actually be.
Speaking of Takeover Target, he's sure to get a lot of support in the wagering, as well. The neck loss to Divisidero is the only blemish on his career record thus far, and he certainly seems to be headed in the right direction for trainer Chad Brown. My only concern with playing him here is that he appeared to benefit from one of the best trips in Pennine Ridge and still couldn't fend off Divisidero. What's to say he's going to get as sweet a setup in the Belmont Derby? Even if he does, can he take that next necessary step forward to win a race of this caliber? It's hard to say.
I am, however, intrigued and excited about the other Chad Brown trainee in this race, Startup Nation. If you watch the stretch run of the Pennine Ridge, Startup Nation literally had trouble starting up. He couldn't find a clear path to run, had to angle out and then finally started to settle into a smooth stride with about 100 yards to go. By then, it was too late, but he did gain some late ground on the aforementioned top two finishers. Startup Nation was a graded stakes winner at two and has always looked like a horse who wants to run all day, meaning the stretch-out to this longer, 1 1/4-mile distance should be very much to his liking. 
Another major player is West Coast shipper and Grade 1 Kentucky Derby contender Bolo. This horse has done little wrong on the turf and figures to be a loose pacesetter, which is dangerous at any distance, in the Belmont Derby. My only concern with him is class, having not raced against anything as good as these horses on the turf. He is a son of Temple City, like Startup Nation, and also looks like one who won't have any trouble getting the distance.
BOLO

Photo by Benoit Photo
Finally, we've got to give some consideration to the European horses in the race, Postulation and Canndal. Both are backed by powerful owner-trainer connections. Neither horse has been dominant overseas but they've both been consistently competitive; Postulation hasn't finished off the board (worse than third) in his last seven starts, and the same can be said for Canndal in his last four races. It's hard for me to judge their actual chances because it's hard to compare the quality of the competition they've been facing versus what they'll see at Belmont on Saturday. 
That said, here are my selections and wagers on a $20 budget for the Belmont Derby. 
Selections: #8 Startup Nation - #2 Bolo - #3 Divisidero - #4 Canndal
$.50 trifecta: 2,8 with 2,3,8 with ALL ($14)
$1 exacta: 3,4 with 2,3,4,8 ($6)
$1.25-million Belmont Derby Invitational
Saturday, Belmont Park, Race 8, 4:32 p.m. ET
1 1/4 miles on the turf for 3-year-olds

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

ML Odds

1

Takeover Target

Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Chad Brown

Klaravich Stables and William Lawrence

5-1

2

Bolo

Rafael Bejarano

Carla Gaines

Golden Pegasus Racing and El Mack

7-2

3

Divisidero

Rafael Hernandez

Buff Bradley

Gunpowder Farms

4-1

4

Canndal (FR)

Christophe Soumillon

Mikel Delzangles

HH Aga Khan

8-1

5

Force the Pass

Joel Rosario

Alan Goldberg

Richard Santulli

8-1

6

Closing Bell

Jose Lezcano

Bill Mott

WinStar Farm

20-1

7

Postulation

Patrick Smullen

Dermot Weld

Juddmonte Farms

10-1

8

Startup Nation

John Velazquez

Chad Brown

Klaravich Stables and William Lawrence

6-1

9

Granny's Kitten

Julien Leparoux

Mike Maker

Ken and Sarah Ramsey

6-1