Betting The 2014 Oscars

Tune into the 2014 Oscars on March 2 at 7 p.m. E.T./4 p.m. P.T. on ABC.
William Goldman was a smart man. You might know his name because he wrote “The Princess Bride” as well as “Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid”. That, friends, is what we call range. The real reason we’re talking about him is a quote from his memoirs that said: “In Hollywood, no one really knows anything.”
Remember that as we go forward.
We all know that the Academy Awards is about much more than just movies. It’s about Western culture’s four-hour-long gaze back at itself. Another spin around the sun, Hollywood, and there’s nobody that plays this game without a desire to take home the big money and fabulous prizes. That, in essence, is what the night is all about.
Somebody in this town always has to win. Because of that, Oscar night is about the soul of Hollywood, which is very much still the heart and soul of America. It’s a megaphone to the rest of the world. You judge a nation by its jails and its feature films. ... Isn’t that what de Tocqueville said?
In any instance where there’s uncertainty, you’ll find people willing to gamble on it. That’s where Goldman comes back into the story. On Oscar night, there are always sure things. But there’s always an odd sense that something genuinely preposterous might happen, and it hangs ominously in the air like Drakkar Noir at the entrance to a Sears in a mall nobody goes to anymore.
Because of that, there is a certain type of person who looks forward to the Academy Awards not for the movies, or the competition, or the gowns, or Joan Rivers crapping on everybody’s plastic surgery on VH1 afterward. That certain person is interested in two things - beating their bookies and scooping money off unsuspecting co-workers or family members that they don’t particularly like.
Choose your side. You’re either with us or against us. Most mainstream folk will check out a Yahoo! News article about “betting on the Oscars,” but it takes a different type of animal to actually deposit money to an offshore Internet site and wager a bit of their hard-earned on whether or not someone accepting a major award will shed a visible tear at 3-to-1. I’ve bet it. I’ve won it.
Let’s roll.
The Academy Awards this year might appear to be done and dusted for the major categories, but there is some decent action if you’re willing to look below the surface of the big six. That’s where the real treats are hiding, and we’ll go straight for the good stuff like giraffes ignoring bitter leaves and focusing on sweet, sweet apricots.
Looking at the big six, “12 Years a Slave” has more or less already won best picture so it’s understandably short priced at -500 (1-to-5). “Gravity” is the biggest challenger with a +400 (4-to-1) listing. Expect the Sandra Bullock/George Clooney vehicle to sponge up the technical and directing awards - Alfonso Cuarón is a microscopic -2000 (1-to-20) to win the Best Director statue. Matthew McConaughey (whose last name is not recognized by my spell check) is -500 (1-to-5) for Best Actor while Cate Blanchett is -3000 (1-to-30) to win Best Actress for her role in “Blue Jasmine.”
GRAVITY LOOKS TO CHALLENGE 12 YEARS A SLAVE IN THE BEST PICTURE CATEGORY

Jared Leto continues the trend with a -1000 (1-to-10) price for Best Supporting Actor in “Dallas Buyers Club.” The only real contest is in the Best Supporting Actress category where Lupita Nyong’o is -175 (4-to-7) against Jennifer Lawrence at +125 (5-to-4). America loves itself some Jennifer Lawrence so that one really might be a toss-up at this point.
If you’re a chalk player and want to back the favorites for the big six, William Hill will give you +150 (3-to-2) on the six betting favorites all to win. The shortest price of the entire Academy Awards is “Gravity” for Best Cinematography at -10,000 (1-to-100) with “Gravity” for Best Visual Effects completing that exacta at -5,000 (1-to-50).
There isn’t much fun going on in those categories so let’s get into the more obscure categories - the Charles Towns and Mountaineers of the Academy Awards with the exception being that they broadcast earlier than the big races. That’s where the value is found this year.
I’m really liking “The Great Gatsby” to win Best Production Design at -175 (4-to-7) and I’m going to parlay that with Pharrell Williams to wear a Mountain/Buffalo Hat during his performance at -250 (2-to-5). That is a for-real bet that’s out there and I’m taking it. He wore a version of that hat to pretty much every public appearance in the last month, and I’m assuming he either designed it or has some type of stock in whoever is making them. $100 on that parlay pays out a total of $220 and that’s not a bad bit of business considering I’m betting money on a music producer’s hat. Try explaining that to your parents ...
THE GREAT GATSBY IS A FAVORITE FOR THE BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN AWARD

The over/under on millions of viewers is set at 41 million, and I initially wasn’t too sure which way to go on that one. The Oscars hasn’t topped that since 2010, when it hit 41,699,000, but it did come close last year at 40,376,000 though that was with Seth MacFarlane as the host and that likely drew in a few million more than would normally watch the Oscars. I feel there’s more overlap with Ellen DeGeneres fans and the Oscars (in that many of Ellen’s fans probably watch the Oscars every year) so she may not draw as high a rating. I would opt with the under if you’re not paying much vig.
Horse racing fans might want to check out the Best Animated Short category where a recently-unearthed Walt Disney short called “Get a Horse!” is the -1,000 (1-to-10) betting choice. You can watch it here - it makes absolutely no sense at all and has an ending as abrupt as “The Sopranos” finale. Still, the academy probably won’t get a chance to award an Oscar directly to Walt Disney again, so I expect them to jump at the chance. That’s an absolute lock and worth parlaying with pretty much anything else you like.
THE RECENTLY UNEARTHED WALT DISNEY SHORT IS UP FOR AN AWARD

It should also be noted that the four other films in this category are named “Mr. Hublot,” “Room on the Broom,” “Feral” and “Possessions.” Those don’t sound like cartoons, they sound like they’re running at the Cheltenham Festival.
Banking a little bit on Hollywood’s biggest night is a cherished American tradition amongst film geeks, and anybody who’s ever chased a loss at Los Alamitos. There isn’t much distance between Hollywood and Las Vegas, and on nights like this it seems as though they speak the same language. Just a few mountains, a whole lot of desert highway and a sprinkling of crappy, roadside restaurants.
A thousand for a kiss and fifty cents for the soul wasn’t it, Marilyn? You can’t say both cities don’t know a thing or two about value.