Hard Not to Like Hard to Beat in Diana
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Description:
Hard Not to Like (gray) won the Gamely in her last start. (Photo by Benoit Photography)
The 77th running of the $500,000 Diana Stakes is part of a magnificent opening weekend race card at historic Saratoga Race Course. Six of the seven fillies and mares are either grade one or two stakes winners, led by Hard Not to Like, winner of the Grade 1 Gamely Stakes at the distance of the Diana in her most recent race. Tepin appears to be a top contender in the race as well, with a perfect three-for-three record in 2015 including a win in the Grade 1 Just a Game Stakes last month. Waltzing Matilda posted the 22.70-to-1 upset last month in the Grade 2 New York Stakes and just needs slight improvement to compete at this level. Stephanie's Kitten was a disappointing fourth in the New York but finished second (beaten a neck) in last year's Diana and could return to top form. Lady Lara won the Grade 2 Honey Fox Stakes in March but finished fourth behind Tepin in her two most recent races. My Miss Sophia won in her first turf try last month and won the Grade 2 Gazelle Stakes on dirt last year as a 3-year-old so may be able to run well here. Kitten's Queen has only a minor stakes win to her credit and faded to third in the New York Stakes after setting a dawdling early pace.
Hard Not to Like is a multiple stakes winning mare with seven victories in 16 career races on turf. She went two-for-two in 2014 including the Jenny Wiley Stakes and she returned after nine months off in January of this year to win the Grade 3 Endeavour Stakes, only to be disqualified to third for veering out in the stretch. After a third place finish in this year's Jenny Wiley, Hard Not to Like returned to top form with a win in the Gamely Stakes, earning a very strong 112 Equibase Speed Figure, just two points off her best effort. Jockey John Velazquez has ridden Hard Not to Like to two of her last four wins and gets aboard for the Diana. With improving to do off a short freshening as well as having been flattered when the runner-up from the Gamely came back to win her next start, Hard Not to Like looks like the one to beat.
Tepin is perfect this year, having won all three starts, the last two in stakes when victorious in the Distaff Turf Mile and the Just a Game Stakes. The best of those efforts earned a sparkling 121 figure and jockey Julien Leparoux has been aboard for all three, riding once again in the Diana. Tepin has shown the ability to win on the lead or to come from just off the pace so with it likely that Kitten's Queen and My Miss Sophia will be the first two runners in the early stages, Tepin may once again be in the perfect spot to capitalize in the stretch and win for the fourth straight time.
TEPIN WINNING THE JUST A GAME
Photo by NYRA/Coglinese Photos
My Miss Sophia had a fantastic 2014 campaign as a 3-year-old, winning the Gazelle Stakes before a runner-up finish in the Kentucky Oaks. She went off form after that with seventh, fifth and fifth place finishes but returned to top form in her most recent start when winning by four lengths. That was her first try on turf, a surface she's bred to adore. With jockey Joel Rosario riding My Miss Sophia back after being aboard for the victory last month, and with a career best 107 to improve upon, this filly might be capable of posting the mild upset against some fillies and mares who to date are more accomplished on the turf.
The rest of the Diana Stakes field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Lady Lara (112), Kitten's Queen (105), Stephanie's Kitten (114) and Waltzing Matlida (98).
My Selections:
Hard Not to Like
Tepin
My Miss Sophia
You can get Ellis' entire detailed analysis and selections for the Saturday Saratoga card, as well as Del Mar, at Equibase.com
$500,000 TVG Diana S. (gr. IT)
Saturday, Saratoga, Race 10 at 6:07 p.m. ET
1 1/8 miles, turf, 3-year-olds and older fillies and mares
PP
Horse
Jockey
Weight
Trainer
Owner
1
Tepin
Julien Leparoux
121
Mark Casse
Robert Masterson
2
Stephanie's Kitten
Irad Ortiz Jr.
121
Chad Brown
Ken and Sarah Ramsey
3
Kitten's Queen
Jose Ortiz
115
Chad Brown
Ken and Sarah Ramsey
4
Hard Not to Like
John Velazquez
123
Christophe Clement
Speedway Stable
5
Waltzing Matilda
Javier Castellano
117
Tom Albertrani
St. Elias Stable
6
My Miss Sophia
Joel Rosario
11
Bill Mott
Alpha Delta Stables
7
Lady Lara
Junior Alvarado
117
Bill Mott
Ben Sangster