Muhimma Aims for Bounce Back in Ashland Stakes

After seeing her unbeaten streak come to an end in the Honeybee Stakes (G3), last year's Demoiselle Stakes (G2) winner Muhimma  will try to return to her winning ways in the rescheduled Ashland Stakes (G1) April 7 at Keeneland.

The 1 1/16-mile Ashland for 3-year-old fillies, which offers a total of 200 Kentucky Oaks (G1) qualifying points on a 100-50-25-15-10 schedule, was pushed to Monday, April 7—along with the entire card originally scheduled as the spring meet's opening day of April 4—because of heavy rains in the forecast.

READ: Keeneland Postpones First Two Scheduled Days of Racing

As those rains arrived April 3 and the forecast calls for rain through Sunday, an off track seems likely for Monday's test that has drawn eight entries. Should that be the case, it will mark the first time that 5-2 morning-line favorite Muhimma has competed on anything but a fast track.

Campaigned by Shadwell Stable, Muhimma won all three of her starts last year capped by a clear victory in her stakes debut in the Demoiselle Stakes (G2) Dec. 7 at Aqueduct Racetrack. Muhimma opened this season as the 4-5 favorite in the Honeybee, but settled for third after she could not reel in front-running Quietside . The top two finishers from that race both came back to capture big prep races for the Kentucky Oaks March 29 as Quietside won the Fantasy Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park and Five G  captured the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2).

Brad Cox, who also conditions likely Kentucky Oaks favorite Good Cheer , is the trainer of Muhimma, a daughter of Munnings   who will see a jockey change from Florent Geroux to Flavien Prat Monday.

Oddly enough, only one filly in the Ashland field is entered off a win. That filly is Stud TNT's Running Away , who led every step in posting a 2 1/4-length score in the Busanda Stakes Jan. 18 at Aqueduct. The daughter of Gun Runner   is trained by Wesley Ward, who has finished atop the trainer standings in wins for each of the past four Keeneland spring meets.

While Running Away will try to keep her momentum going, two other fillies will try to improve on runner-up finishes in graded stakes in their previous efforts. Tracy Farmer homebred La Cara  followed home The Queens M G  in the one-turn mile Davona Dale Stakes (G2) March 1 at Gulfstream while Supa Speed  just missed in the 1 1/16-mile Santa Ysabel Stakes (G3) March 2 at Santa Anita Park. 

La Cara, a daughter of 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Street Sense  , previously captured the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Supa Speed, a daughter of Justify  , impressed in her dirt debut in the Santa Ysabel after a pair of wins and a pair of stakes placings in five starts on turf.

Take Charge Milady , trained by three-time Ashland winner Ken McPeek, finished off the board in the Honeybee after a troubled trip but previously won the Martha Washington Stakes at Oaklawn. Rounding out the field are stakes winner Look Forward , who also is entered in the April 5 Santa Anita Oaks (G2) but has shipped to Kentucky; Busher runner-up Amarth ; and Admit , who has placed in a pair of stakes this year on the all-weather surface at Turfway Park.

Thoro-Graph Race Analysis

• Look Forward—If she runs here (cross-entered in Santa Anita Oaks) her best (7 1/2) makes her a borderline contender, and she could be ready for a forward move.
• La Cara—ran a big one last summer before tailing off. She came back with a new top (5 1/2) at Tampa, then backed up a little on short rest. This is the kind of short-term pattern that often leads to a subpar effort, especially on an off track.
• Supa Speed—has gradually moved forward, and her first dirt try produced a new top (7 1/2). She would probably need another jump to take this, which is not impossible.
• Muhimma—was the best of these last year (top of 6), but her return was the worst race of her young life. We will find out about this filly today—second time out as a 3-year-old she's supposed to produce a big effort.
• Running Away—jumped to a new top (7 1/2) last time, but she would need another forward move to contend here, or in the Oaks.

Full Thoro-Graph Analysis of Ashland Stakes

• Take Charge Milady—got down to a good one (6) in January, before running a stinker with some excuses last time. We throw that one out, and McPeek runners generally do very well on off tracks.
• Amarth—is very similar to Running Away. Thoro-Graph accounts for ground loss in our figures, and the wide trip last time earned her a big new top (7), but she too would need another forward move, which is unlikely right now.