Betting the Coaching Club American Oaks on a Budget

Curalina (above) turned in a career-best performance in the Acorn Stakes on the Belmont Stakes undercard. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
Spirits are high for opening weekend at Saratoga Race Course and the Grade 1, $300,000 Coaching Club American Oaks on Sunday will cap off the festivities.
Through the years, this race has been won by legends such as Ruffian and, more recently, by stars like Princess of Sylmar (2013) and Stopchargingmaria (2014).
Trainer Todd Pletcher, who has won the race the last two years and owns the record for CCA Oaks wins (six), sends out the this year’s favorite, Curalina. The 3-year-old filly by Curlin, owned by Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, made a big splash on the Belmont Stakes undercard, winning the Grade 1 Acorn Stakes. In that race, she posted the second highest Beyer Speed Figure (a commonly used rating found in the Daily Racing Form) of any horse in this field. She looks extremely tough.
The horse with the highest last out Beyer Speed Figure in this race is Keen Pauline. She ran a bang-up race in the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes. Unlike Curlina, Keen Pauline’s performance was uncharacteristically good. When a horse “freaks” like Keen Pauline did last time out, it’s fair to expect at least a little bit of regression in their next start, which is this one for Keen Pauline. She also had the benefit of being loose on an easy lead in the Black-Eyed Susan, which she might not get the benefit of in the CCA Oaks.
Speaking of pace, there isn't a clear pacesetter in this race. I have a hard time envisioning them allowing Keen Pauline to steal another one, so I’m looking for one or two of the horses entered to press early. One of those horses might be I'm a Chatterbox. This filly is a multiple graded stakes winner and has run her best races when she’s been on the lead. I would have to believe that she’ll be forwardly placed and rates a very good chance to lead from start to finish - or at the very least, finish in the money (in the top three).
My longshot play in here is going to be Conquest Eclipse. This Malibu Moon filly has shown a clear preference for going long and the added sixteenth of a mile in the 1 1/8-mile CCA Oaks should be to her liking. Additionally, she tends to stay close to the pace (having flashed really good speed in a few of her sprints), and that should benefit her in a race that could place late-closing horses at a disadvantage.
Selections: Curalina - Conquest Eclipse - I'm a Chatterbox - Include Betty - Wonder Gal
Betting Strategy
$1 trifecta: Curalina, Conquest Eclipse with Curalina, Conquest Eclipse with ALL ($12)
$.50 trifecta: Curalina, Conquest Eclipse with ALL with Curalina, Conquest Eclipse ($6)
$300,000 Coaching Club American OaksSaratoga Race Course, Sunday, Race 10, 6:07 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-old fillies

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

ML

1

Danette

Junior Alvarado

Keith Desormeaux

Don't Tell My Wife Stables

20-1

2

Chide

Joel Rosario

Al Stall Jr.

Claiborne Farm and Adele B. Dilschneider

12-1

3

Curalina

John Velazquez

Todd Pletcher

Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners

3-1

4

Conquest Eclipse

Shaun Bridgmohan

Mark Casse

Conquest Stables

15-1

5

Include Betty

Drayden Van Dyke

Tom Proctor

Brereton C. Jones and Timothy C. Thornton

7-2

6

Keen Pauline

Javier Castellano

Dale Romans

Stonestreet Stables

4-1

7

Wonder Gal

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Leah Gyarmati

Treadway Racing Stable

8-1

8

I'm a Chatterbox

Florent Geroux

Larry Jones

Fletcher and Carolyn Gray

5-2