Eclatant Stays at Seven Furlongs for Eight Belles

A competitive field of 12 3-year-old fillies, including eight last-out stakes winners led by Stonestreet Stables' homebred Eclatant , has been entered for the $600,000 Eight Belles Stakes (G2) May 2 at Churchill Downs.

Eclatant, by six-time leading general sire Into Mischief  , is out of the winning Scat Daddy mare Downside Scenario, making her a full sister to 2020 Bourbon Stakes (G2T) winner Mutasaabeq , who also ran third in the 2020 Hopeful Stakes (G1) on the dirt at Saratoga Race Course.

Eclatant won her first two starts sprinting at age 2 then finished third in the 1 1/16-mile Golden Rod Stakes (G2) behind a pair of fillies—Good Cheer  and Quietside —who could go as the top two choices in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) two races after the Eight Belles Friday.

Trainer Brad Cox got Eclatant away from the division leaders and back to one turn in her 3-year-old debut, and she responded with a 1 1/4-length win in the seven-furlong Forward Gal Stakes (G3) Feb. 1 at Gulfstream Park. It took Eclatant a month to work back after that win, but she has been hitting the work tab regularly since March 2, including three published moves at Churchill since shipping north from Florida.

Her main competition appears to be the Godolphin homebred Verity , winner of the seven-furlong Beaumont Stakes (G2) April 6 at Keeneland. A winner of three in a row, the Nyquist   filly is a head away from being undefeated in four starts, though her best surface remains undeclared. The Eoin Harty trainee won twice on the synthetic track at Turfway Park and then took the Beaumont in the slop.

Reddam Racing's Look Forward , who was based at Santa Anita Park before running sixth in the April 7 Ashland Stakes (G1) at Keeneland, is another who could appreciate Friday's one-turn configuration. The Bolt d'Oro   filly is undefeated in two sprint starts, including victory in the Jan. 5 Santa Ynez Stakes at Santa Anita. Look Forward also finished second to Kentucky Oaks contender Tenma  in the 2024 Starlet Stakes (G2) going 1 1/16 miles at Los Alamitos Race Course.

If the favorites don't perform, the Eight Belles boasts an additional six last-out stakes winners moving up in class to test the graded ranks: Unchained Elaine , Princess Aliyah , Kimchi Cat , Bourbon Memory , Impulse Buy , and Louisiana-bred Blue Fire , whom Stonestreet owns in partnership with Peter Leidel.

The field is completed by Keeneland allowance winner Evanescence , who rallied from dead last to win going away by 3 1/2 lengths April 7; 2024 Astoria Stakes winner Whatintheliteral ; and Mendela , who broke her maiden by 6 3/4 lengths March 30 at Oaklawn Park.

Insights From Thoro-Graph

• Unchained Elaine exploded with a big new top last time, and it's likely to take something out of her for a while.
• Verity is another that jumped way forward, and another likely to pay a price.
• Kimchi Cat ran a big one last year at Saratoga, and returned from a six-month break with an effort a few Thoro-Graph points off that one. She should be set for her best now.
• Mendela ran a huge one last time, but it was only her second start, and she might or might not bounce.
• Blue Fire comes out of very tough state-bred races at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, and on her sprint figures is competitive with these graded stakes fillies.
• Bourbon Memory is the X factor, as she tries the dirt for the first time, for a very hot barn.
• Impulse Buy had figures as a 2-year-old that put her right there with these, and should be better now as a 3-year-old.
• Eclatant was precocious and fast, but she hasn't developed, at least so far, and the division has caught up. This filly would need a forward move to have a serious chance in a race where several longshots are as strong or stronger than the two favorites.

Thoro-Graph performance figures are calculated based on a race's time with adjustments for beaten lengths, track speed, ground loss, weight carried, and when necessary, wind. The lower the number, the better the race. Complimentary sheets for the Eight Belles Stakes can be found online at Thoro-Graph. Learn more about how to analyze Thoro-Graph data at www.thorograph.com/basics.