Pace Could Be Obstacle for Sierra Leone in Foster

When Sierra Leone  last competed in a seven-figure stakes race, he successfully rallied behind furious early fractions in the $7 million Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) this past November at Del Mar. His victory catapulted the colt to an Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old male of 2024.

Yet if he is to notch another top-level victory June 28 in the $1 million Stephen Foster Stakes (G1) at Churchill Downs, the late finisher will likely have to close from behind a more reasonable tempo. Most of the seven entrants in the 1 1/8-mile Stephen Foster prefer to chase or stalk the pace, suggesting Sierra Leone and another late runner, Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Hit Show , will need to catch those ahead of them without the benefit of fatigue-inducing fast splits.

An absence of pace contributed to Sierra Leone's defeat in his lone outing of 2025, as did a return from a layoff. Racing in the March 22 New Orleans Classic Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, he was kept within range of front-running Touchuponastar , but could not make up any ground. He finished third, beaten 4 1/2 lengths by Touchuponastar.

Besides Sierra Leone facing Mindframe , Skippylongstocking , and Hit Show, the Stephen Foster includes dual grade 2 winner First Mission , and 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Mystik Dan , who outlasted Sierra Leone by a nose in the Run for the Roses 13 months ago in a three-horse thriller that also included third-place Forever Young .

This will mark Mystik Dan and Sierra Leone's first meeting beneath the twin spires since the 2024 Derby, though they also met in the Belmont Stakes (G1) at Saratoga Race Course in June 2024 when Sierra Leone was third behind Dornoch   and Mindframe, and Mystik Dan checked in eighth in his third start in the Triple Crown series.

Brian Hernandez Jr. called a five-furlong workout in :59 June 21 at Churchill Downs from Mystik Dan "phenomenal."

"He did everything just like we wanted him to, and his gallop out was very impressive," he said. "He looks like he's going into this race well and on the right track. The nice thing about him right now is his mind is really good."

Watch: Track Could Be to Mystik Dan's Advantage in Stephen Foster

Sierra Leone, a son of Gun Runner  , races for owners Peter Brant, Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Westerberg, and Brook Smith. Flavien Prat rides.

Brook Smith, speaking this week on the "BloodHorse Monday" podcast, noted trainer Chad Brown and the ownership partners mapped out a limited campaign of the first half of the year, planning a schedule that worked backward from the Breeders' Cup Classic. The Stephen Foster is a Breeders' Cup Challenge Series race, providing its winner with an automatic, paid berth into the 1 1/4-mile Classic.

"We've given him a ton of time off, and he is just full of himself—strong, rested. And I think he has that advantage over some of these horses, even though he may need one to kind of get into the flow. He's hopefully going to be so sound, so fit, so comfortable that as he gets into a few of these races, he'll be fresh going into the Classic, not kinda trying to reach for it."

Mindframe, trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher for Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable, has raced twice in one-turn contests this year, winning both outings. After taking the March 1 Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes (G3) in his 2025 unveiling, he gamely prevailed in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) in a blanket finish on Kentucky Derby Day.

Now the 4-year-old Constitution   colt looks to be as effective in a grade 1 around two turns. 

All but longshot Ashcroft  come off top-three finishes. The field has combined for 40 victories in 103 starts with earnings exceeding $26 million.

The Stephen Foster is the 11th race Saturday with post time at 6:03 p.m. ET.

Insights from Thoro-Graph

• First Mission ran two negative numbers early last year, then tailed off, starting in this race. After a break, he came back to his best in his two starts this year, and with the rail, another that good would probably be good enough. He's had more than two months since then, but the obvious question is, did those big efforts set him back again?
• Mindframe came out with a big effort for an early 3-year-old last year and has run back to that figure four times since. But he hasn't gotten any faster over the last year, and he would need to do so to win here if First Mission or Sierra Leone runs their race.
• Skippylongstocking is very consistent and very similar in ability to Mindframe.
• Sierra Leone was a strong 3-year-old, with every race as good or better than the one before it. Given extra time into the Breeder's Cup, he exploded with a huge figure, and he may still have been feeling the effects of that effort at Fair Grounds, when he went backwards for the first time in his life. On his best, this colt is one of the very best horses in the country, and he's been given extra time again into this, but it's a guess as to when he'll get back to that high level.
• Mystik Dan jumped to a big figure early last year, then won the Derby with the third-best figure, thanks to Brian Hernandez Jr. doing a Calvin Borel on both turns. He finally came back around and ran the best race of his life two back, then won last time despite going back some, because Hernandez was again able to save ground. On his best, this one is a borderline contender, but with a history of tailing off following top efforts, we might not see his best.
• Hit Show is another at the Mindframe/Skippylongstocking level, and when the World Cup collapsed, that was good enough. It probably won't be here.

Thoro-Graph performance figures are calculated based on a race's time with adjustments for beaten lengths, track speed, ground loss, weight carried, and, when necessary, wind. The lower the number, the better the race. Complimentary sheets for the Stephen Foster Handicap can be found online at Thoro-Graph. Learn more about how to analyze Thoro-Graph data at www.thorograph.com/basics.