Bram’s Take: Hail the Chosen One in Haskell

Fans will flock to Monmouth Park for Sunday's Haskell Invitational Stakes and Triple Crown winner American Pharoah's first start since the Belmont Stakes (above). American Pharoah is the heavy favorite for the 1 1/8-mile race. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
No one wanted any part of paying to be in American Pharoah's victory lap at Monmouth Park until the pot got splashed with a pile of dough that made coming in second worth it.
As a racing fan (the kind who likes to see strong fields), I applaud the move to get a couple of prime upset candidates to take the bait and run against the newly minted legend in the $1.75-million William Hill Haskell Invitational Stakes. But I will admit as a proponent of merely spreading the word that a day at the races is a day well spent, the fact that American Pharoah might now lose doesn’t seem like a risk worth taking.
Regardless of what happens, the Haskell will get some national media play because Pharoah is in it. But the truth is, the sport has to want him to continue to win. This isn’t Zenyatta where pitting her against the best of the boys was always a good story to tell. Those who rule the narrative should want Pharoah to get to the Breeders’ Cup Classic unscathed. Now, I’m not calling for an upset here, but without that extra cash incentive for coming in second, Upstart would have stayed at Saratoga and had a Jim Dandy ole time.
All that said, the fact that Pharoah is racing at all is nothing to complain about. I'm just saying ... 
The Field
1. Upstart (6-to-1): If the pace is a little slower, then I kind of like him to give Pharoah a good run and if Pharoah is off, maybe even win. But Pharoah would seemingly have to be way off from his Triple Crown pace to give anyone a shot, let alone Upstart. He’s clearly here to take the second-place cash and, to that end, I anticipate he doesn't even try to run with Pharoah, let some other sucker be that rabbit.

Photo by Natalie Fawkes/Gulfstream Park
2. Competitive Edge (8-to-1): Here’s that other sucker who may just be thinking that firing out of the gate and hoping for a slow Pharoah means a wire-to-wire win. I doubt that is a very likely ending, but I can see where they might think that. Now the problem, of course, is if Pharoah is out front and looking like the Belmont Stakes version, then this guy is not going to last and he’s going to get passed and he’s going to wish he stayed at the Spa for the weekend.
3. Nonna’s Boy (30-to-1): So, in races not nearly of this magnitude he threatens to hit the board, but that’s about it. Plus, he likes to run up front, which on this day is the worst possible game plan. No thanks.
4. American Pharoah (1-to-5): All hail the chosen one.
A PHAROAH TALE ENDING

5. Mr. Jordan (15-to-1): This guy likes to hand pick the races he’s in to the point where he figures to dominate the field. And, he has cherry picked well. Now, he's gotten a little big for his britches here. The speed figures are impressive, but he hasn't been tested. So I’m leaning away, but if I were to go with any kind of exotic play — unlikely because Pharoah ruins just about any payout — I'd have him in.
6. Keen Ice (12-to-1): Why is he 12-to-1? He closed extraordinarily well in the Kentucky Derby. He hung with Frosted in the Belmont. Look, no one is American Pharoah, but this idea that he wouldn't have as good a shot to steal it as Upstart or Competitive Edge is foolish. So, if you are going for a dog, this one is barking. Loudly. If he’s still over 10-to-1 come close to post time, I’ll be hitting him hard for place and show.
7. Top Clearance (30-to-1): I don't know why he is here. His last race had a $20,000 purse. But you can’t argue with crazy, so good luck to you gov'na.
8. Dontbetwithbruno (30-to-1): Clearly, the best name of the bunch, so I have a soft spot for this one. But his numbers are a harsh reality. Since he has shown zero propensity to run with horses of this class, I will take his advice and NOT bet with Bruno.
Here’s the deal: The purse splash did lure in some modest intrigue. It’s clearly why Upstart and Competitive Edge took the midnight run to Monmouth … for a second-place gold mine. I’d argue being in the field of seven at Saratoga gave them each a better argument that they could win as opposed to going for this reach. I think Competitive Edge runs out of gas in the stretch trying to keep up with Pharoah. I figure Upstart to play for second and, if Pharoah is off, maybe get lucky and steal it. But Keen Ice is the one in my mind who is primed to produce the result to make the betters happy.
Clearly, I’m not going against American Pharoah so I’ll offer you this — exacta box: American Pharoah and Keen Ice, and I'll put a sizable amount on Keen Ice to place and show.
As for Saturday's $600,000 Jim Dandy Stakes, which could be five horses: I thought I was going to get a price for Texas Red. The field is too small for that to happen, and two of the contenders are probably gone. But he won’t be the favorite. That belongs to Frosted. So I’ll take whatever I can get there and be happy about it. Texas Red by a half-length.
$1.75-million William Hill Haskell Invitational StakesSunday, Monmouth Park, Race 12, Post time 5:52 p.m. ET on NBC1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

ML

1

Upstart

Joe Bravo

Rick Violette

Ralph Evans and WinStar Farm

6-1

2

Competitive Edge

Mike Smith

Todd Pletcher

Nancy Favreau Kathy Psoinos and Michael Tabor

8-1

3

Nonna’s Boy

TBA

Todd Pletcher

Repole Stables

30-1

4

American Pharoah

Victor Espinonza

Bob Baffert

Zayat Stables

1-5

5

Mr. Jordan

Paco Lopez

Eddie Plesa

David Melin Leon Ellman and Laurie Plesa

15-1

6

Keen Ice

Kent Desormeaux

Dale Romans

Donegal Racing

12-1

7

Top Clearance

Abel Castellano Jr

Wayne Catalano

Gary and Mary West

30-1

8

Dontbetwithbruno

TBA

Todd Pletcher

Repole Stables

30-1