American Pharoah Rules, Mr. Jordan Could Surprise in Haskell
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Triple Crown winner American Pharoah jogs at Monmouth Park ahead of his start in Sunday's Haskell Invitational. (Photo by Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing)
The Grade 1, $1.75-million William Hill Haskell Invitational Stakes features the return of American Pharoah, winner of seven straight races and the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years. Eight have signed up to run for a record purse for this race, but two of those (Upstart and Competitive Edge) were also entered to run in Saturday's Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga. Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes winner Upstart and Grade 3 Pegasus Stakes winner Mr. Jordan have potential to run well while the rest appear a cut below in terms of class as they have either not run in a graded stakes to date or not performed well when they have.
American Pharoah will be the prohibitive betting choice, likely on the order of 1 to 9 odds, meaning for every $9 bet on him to win you will earn $1 profit if he wins, or about 10 percent. During his spring campaign, including wins in the Rebel Stakes, Arkansas Derby, Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes, American Pharoah did not show any signs of regression, earning Equibase Speed Figures of 107, 111, 111 and 112 in those races. Rested nearly two months since the Belmont, American Pharoah has put in three workouts in July that suggest he's still in top shape, followed by a more leisurely maintenance workout. With regular rider Victor Espinoza once again in the saddle, American Pharoah appears ready to win his eighth straight race.
If there are upset candidates, they are Mr. Jordan and Upstart, the former a horse I wouldn't hesitate to bet to win as he opens at 15/1 odds.
Mr. Jordan has never been worse than second in six races, once via a disqualification and the other when returning from four months away from the races. Mr. Jordan earned 99, 99 and 111 figures in his last three races, the 111 Pegasus figure suggesting he ran as fast as American Pharoah in the Derby and Preakness. Mr. Jordan likes to run on or near the lead but doesn't need to lead for his best. This versatility will allow jockey Paco Lopez the ability to react to how the pace scenario develops. Although he won his last two races by a head, Mr. Jordan showed a lot of fight in the late stages to hold off horses trying to go by and that may help him pull off the upset in this year's Haskell.
MR. JORDAN
Photo by Equiphoto
Upstart is another that has done little wrong in his career to date. Except when eased in the Derby, Upstart has only been worse than second one time in seven other races. He won the Holy Bull Stakes in January to start off his 3-year-old campaign, with a career-best 111 speed figure, then was disqualified and place second after winning the Fountain of Youth stakes in his next start. Following a career-best 113 figure when second in the Florida Derby came the inexplicably poor Kentucky Derby effort. However, with a best-of-109 half-mile workout coming into the Haskell it appears Upstart can return to top form.
The Haskell Invitational Stakes also is part of the Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" Challenge Series, which guarantees the victor a starting berth in the $5-million Classic on Oct. 31.
The rest of the Haskell field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Competitive Edge (106), Dontbetwithbruno (97), Keen Ice (104), Nonna's Boy (101) and Top Clearance (103).
My selections:
American Pharoah
Mr. Jordan
Upstart
Click here for this week's edition of That Handicapping Show for further analysis from the Blood-Horse
$1.75-million William Hill Haskell Invitational StakesSunday, Monmouth Park, Race 12, Post time 5:52 p.m. ET on NBC1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owner
ML
1
Upstart
Joe Bravo
Rick Violette
Ralph Evans and WinStar Farm
6-1
2
Competitive Edge
Mike Smith
Todd Pletcher
Nancy Favreau Kathy Psoinos and Michael Tabor
8-1
3
Nonna’s Boy
TBA
Todd Pletcher
Repole Stables
30-1
4
American Pharoah
Victor Espinonza
Bob Baffert
Zayat Stables
1-5
5
Mr. Jordan
Paco Lopez
Eddie Plesa
David Melin Leon Ellman and Laurie Plesa
15-1
6
Keen Ice
Kent Desormeaux
Dale Romans
Donegal Racing
12-1
7
Top Clearance
Abel Castellano Jr
Wayne Catalano
Gary and Mary West
30-1
8
Dontbetwithbruno
TBA
Todd Pletcher
Repole Stables
30-1