Betting the Whitney on a Budget

Lea (above winning at Gulfstream Park) is a top contender for Saturday's Whitney Invitational Stakes at Saratoga Race Course. (All photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
One of the best parts about summer racing at Saratoga Race Course is that there’s always a big race or two on every race card, especially on weekends.
There are few races bigger during the course of the entire meet than the Grade 1, $1.25-million Whitney Invitational Stakes, which will be contested this Saturday at 1 1/8 miles on the main track at Saratoga.
The Whitney is part of the Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" Challenge Series and guarantees the victor a starting spot in the Breeders' Cup Classic on Oct. 31 at Keeneland Race Course.
Bona fide speedster Moreno memorably stole this race on the front end last year at odds of 10-to-1. I remember because I bet him and thought the race would unfold just as it did. Added confidence in him came from the fact that he ran a huge race on the dirt at Saratoga in the Travers Stakes in his 3-year-old season. Moreno should always be respected on this track, but the presence of at least one other speed horse, Coach Inge, would seem to decrease the likelihood of Moreno being able to pull off a repeat of last year’s Whitney.
MORENO PULLED AN UPSET IN 2014 WHITNEY

Another key race to look at is last year’s Travers. Wicked Strong was in much better form back then when he stalked the pace, made a strong move to open up a clear lead in deep stretch but was ultimately caught by stablemate V. E. Day. Tonalist finished third in the race and hung (basically stalled) just as he’s done in several races since then.
With his victory in the Travers and in the Curlin Stakes on the Saratoga dirt, V. E. Day has been something of a buzz horse coming into this race. I’m not sure this race sets up quite as well for him though, nor do I think this field is as soft as the one he beat last year.
There are lots of horses in this year’s Whitney who have been somewhat disappointing thus far in 2015, including Lea. The Bill Mott trainee opened the year with a nice win in the Grade 3 Hal’s Hope Stakes but hasn’t won in three races since, including a third-place finish in the Group 1 Dubai World Cup and a runner-up finish in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap. Despite that, Lea is my top selection in the Whitney. Look for him to get a nice stalking trip, the perfect setup behind a fast pace, and expect a big closing kick in his second race back from Dubai.
There are a few others to consider but for the sake of keeping this concise, let’s just touch on Honor Code. Many believe he’s the front-runner for the top older horse in the country honors at the end of the year, following his eye-opening win from way off the pace in the Grade 1 Met Mile. It was a huge race, to be sure, but you’ve got to worry about him bouncing (regressing off of a taxing effort) following that career top while stretching out to 1 1/8 miles against a tougher bunch here.
This is a great betting race. Here are my selections and bets on a $20 budget.
Selections: Lea, Wicked Strong, Liam’s Map, V. E. Day, Tonalist
Betting Strategy:
$1 trifecta: Lea with Wicked Strong, Liam’s Map, V. E. Day, Tonalist, Noble Bird with Wicked Strong, Liam’s Map, V. E. Day, Tonalist, Noble Bird ($20)
OR
$20 win: Lea (price should be good enough to ensure a nice return if Lea wins)
$1,250,000 Whitney Invitational StakesSaturday, Saratoga Race Course, Race 9, 5:46 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds and olderWin and You're In for Breeders' Cup ClassicTV: NBC, 5-6 p.m. ET

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owners

ML

1

Honor Code

Javier Castellano

Shug McGaughey

Lane’s End Racing and Dell Ridge Farm

3-1

2

Tonalist

John Velazquez

Christophe Clement

Robert S. Evans

4-1

3

Noble Bird

Shaun Bridgmohan

Mark Casse

John Oxley

5-1

4

Liam's Map

Mike Smith

Todd Pletcher

Teresa Viola Racing Stables

6-1

5

Moreno

Cornelio Velasquez

Eric Guillot

Southern Equine Stable

12-1

6

V. E. Day

Junior Alvarado

Jimmy Jerkens

Magalen O. Bryant

8-1

7

Lea

Joel Rosario

Bill Mott

Claiborne Farm and Adele B. Dilschneider

9-2

8

Coach Inge

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Todd Pletcher

Repole Stable

15-1

9

Wicked Strong

Luis Saez

Jimmy Jerkens

Centennial Farms

20-1

10

Normandy Invasion

Kerwin Clark

Larry Jones

Fox Hill Farms

30-1