Tip of the Week: Don’t Wave the White Flag

American Pharoah was a sure thing in the Haskell Invitational Stakes, but while you won't make any money betting him to win, there are betting options that allow the smart gambler to capitalize on an easy winner. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
This week’s betting tip is offered as advice on what to do when American Pharoah – or another overwhelming favorite – returns to the races.
Realistically, horses that pay $2.20 to win, are not exactly value plays, but you can indeed make some money off them if you aggressively employ the correct betting strategy.
For starters, you have to decide whether the favorite will win or lose.
If you sense an upset is in the air, then you should spread your wagers. The payoffs when a 1-to-10 favorite goes down to defeat are so huge that you do not want to miss out hitting some form of an exotic wager. Figuring something crazy has to happen to light the fuse for the upset, adding a few extra horses to the mix to make sure you have the right horse covered is quite logical.
If you believe the favorite will win, there are still options.
Bets to avoid are win or place wagers, unless you want a souvenir ticket. Realistically, unless you’re wagering hundreds of thousands of dollars, what’s the point of taking a $2.20 win payoff when you can get a $2.10 show payoff with far less risk.
A place bet makes even less sense. As shown by the payoffs in the Haskell Invitational Stakes, American Pharoah paid $2.10 to place and show. So place bettors assumed more risk than show bettors but received the same payoffs.
As for the exacta or trifecta, if you’re going to use American Pharoah on top you cannot tack on too many different combinations underneath him, unless you’re dealing with the longest shots on the board – and even then the return will be relatively puny.
In the Haskell, the exacta of American Pharoah over 18-to-1 shot Keen Ice paid $10.80, which sounds miniscule until you realize Keen Ice was the third choice among the other six challengers for American Pharoah and was a fairly logical horse to use. Bet a cold $20 exacta on that combo, and a $102 return isn’t bad at all.
The triple, with 6-to-1 second choice Upstart third, wasn’t bad either as it pushed a $10.80 exacta into a $33 triple with the addition of the obvious next horse to use.
The superfecta offered an even better payout with 9-1 third choice Competitive Edge completing the ticket and triggering a $71 payoff for $2. That might seem ridiculously low for a superfecta, but when you consider if you spent $12 boxing the second, third, and fourth choices underneath American Pharoah and got $71 back, you turned 1-to-10 into 5-to-1.
THE PHAROAH RISES

For those who backed American Pharoah in the horizontal sequence wagers, the Triple Crown winner provided a free pass while bumping up the return.
Just look at the double in the 10th and 11th races before the Haskell was contested as race 12. It returned $13.80 for $2. But with the addition of American Pharoah, the Pick 3 on the 10th, 11th and 12th races paid $19 for $2, jumping $5.20 with the addition of a “sure thing.”
The Pick 3 on races 9-11 paid $122.20 for $2 but grew to a $169.20 Pick 4 for $2 with American Pharoah being tossed into the mix. An extra $47 for singling a Triple Crown winner certainly seems like a pretty good reward for the risk.
So the next time American Pharoah - or another 1-to-10 favorite - comes to town, don’t just watch. With help from the proper betting strategy, it could be a chance to take home some great memories and a few extra dollars as well.