It's Europe vs. North America in the Saratoga Derby

A quartet of European runners made the trip across the Atlantic Ocean to take on a quintet of United States-based turf horses Aug. 2 in the $750,000 Saratoga Derby Invitational Stakes (G1T) for 3-year-olds at Saratoga Race Course.

The Saratoga Derby will be run at 1 3/16 miles on a Mellon Turf Course that may have some give in it, given the rain in the forecast July 31 and Aug. 1.

Favored Hotazhell  with rider Shane Foley will break from post 7 in the field of 9. The son of Too Darn Hot  boasts a trio of group wins, including last year's Futurity Trophy Stakes (G1), all at a mile or shorter. In his lone start beyond a mile, he finished fifth over 1 1/4 miles in the Coral-Eclipse (G1) at Sandown Park July 5. 

Though based in England, Qatar Racing’s New Century  is no stranger to North America. He won the Summer Stakes (G1T) at Woodbine last year, his lone win in four starts on this continent, including a fourth in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1T) and a fifth in the Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes (G1T) at Saratoga in early July. The Kameko  colt gets meet-leading rider Irad Ortiz Jr., who was also aboard in the American Turf Stakes (G1T) in May at Churchill Downs where the duo finished third. Trained abroad by Andrew Balding, the colt has been in the care of Brendan Walsh since the spring. 

The third European runner is longshot Tiberius Thunder , owned by Amo Racing USA and trained by Adrian Murray. Frankie Dettori will be in the irons for the Night of Thunder  colt’s first U.S. start. The Irish-bred Juwelier  comes to Saratoga following three starts in France and one in Germany, getting the win in the Derby Trial (G3) at Baden Baden. Umberto Rispoli will ride the son of Wootton Bassett  for trainer Alessandro Botti. 

Favored among the U.S.-based horses at 7-2  is trainer Graham Motion’s Test Score  (Lookin At Lucky ), winner of the Belmont Derby and the Transylvania Stakes (G3T) at Keeneland in April. The Amerman Racing homebred is tested at route distances, having won at 1 1/8 miles, and has finished worse than third only once, earning more than $1 million in his eight starts. 

Making his second start back on turf after running on the Kentucky Derby (G1) trail for most of this year, earning enough points to qualify for the race and finishing 10th, Tiztastic  is looking for his first win since the Louisiana Derby (G2) in March. After finishing fifth on dirt in a maiden special weight at Saratoga last year, trainer Steve Asmussen turned to the turf for two races at Kentucky Downs, with Tiztastic winning both. Six dirt starts followed, and in June the dark bay/brown colt went back to turf, finishing fifth in the listed American Derby at Churchill Downs.

Completing the field are graded-placed Capitol Hill , Belmont Derby fifth Final Gambit , and Belmont Derby runner-up World Beater . 

Insights from Thoro-Graph

• Final Gambit did a lot of developing to get to a big effort in the Kentucky Derby, which set him back. His last was better than it looked, and the pattern and timing are right for a forward move.
• Test Score jumped way forward at Keeneland, caught a dead rail on Derby Day, and returned to his best last time. He should run well again, which puts him in this.
• New Century comes out of the same race as the first two, and ran about the same figure, but this one has done no developing at all since September, which is concerning.
• Hotazhell has gradually moved forward with each start, and last time ran a new top at the longest distance he's tried. A repeat of that would give him a good shot, and another forward move would make him a likely winner.
• World Beater has developed an awful lot this year, and is more likely to back up than go forward off his new top last time.

Thoro-Graph performance figures are calculated based on a race's time with adjustments for beaten lengths, track speed, ground loss, weight carried, and, when necessary, wind. The lower the number, the better the race. Complimentary sheets for this race can be found online at Thoro-Graph. Learn more about how to analyze Thoro-Graph data at www.thorograph.com/basics.