Wake Forest an Upset Threat in Arlington Million

Morning-line favorite Big Blue Kitten (right) faces a stiff field in Saturday's Arlington Million, including longshot Wake Forest. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
The field for Arlington Park's 33rd running of the Grade 1, $1-million Arlington Million (a "Win and You're In" race for the Breeders' Cup Turf) consists of 13 turf runners, five shipping from Europe with four of those having won or finishing second in their most recent starts.
Among the North American contingent, last month's Grade 1 United Nations Stakes winner and runner-up, Big Blue Kitten and Slumber, respectively, warrant a lot of consideration. Among the group from Europe, Wake Forest just won the Group 3 Hamburg Trophy Stakes in Germany while Kentucky-bred Maverick Wave won the Group 3 Huxley Stakes in England. Quiet Force enters the Million off a win in the local prep, the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap, while Triple Threat won the Grade 2 Monmouth Cup Stakes in his U.S. debut in June and appears to fit with these as well. Not to be ignored, The Pizza Man brings a career record of 14 wins, nine at Arlington Park, into the race.
Main Contenders:
Wake Forest brings a six-for-10 record into the Million and the same jockey (Pedroza) aboard for all six victories comes over from Europe for the ride. In his most recent start, Wake Forest won the Hamburg Trophy Stakes in a long stretch drive after having to angle out for room late, showing a lot of physical and mental prowess that bodes well for his chances in this race. Before the Hamburg Trophy Stakes, Wake Forest finished third in a Group 1 race so he certainly fits at this Grade 1 level. Trainer Andreas Wohler won the Million in 2001 with Silvano so with Wake Forest coming off a win at the same mile and one-quarter distance I'll give him my gold star for posting the upset.
Maverick Wave is a Kentucky-bred son of Elusive Quality who has run 13 times to date in his career, all in England. He has won six times including his most recent effort in the Huxley Stakes. Maverick Wave has excellent tactical speed, having won the Totepool Handicap Stakes from just off the pace before leading from start to finish in the Huxley. Trainer John Gosden won the Million in 2010 with Debussy and jockey William Buick rode Maverick Wave to his last win so all seems in place for another top effort, perhaps a winning one, in Arlington Million XXXIII.
SLUMBER

Big Blue Kitten and Slumber are difficult to separate both in terms of probability to win and also on the track itself, having taken turns beating each other in their two most recent races. In the Manhattan Stakes in June, Slumber added blinkers and rallied to post the 14-1 upset (with a career-best 123 Equibase Speed Figure) by 2 3/4 lengths over Big Blue Kitten, who returned the favor one month later when winning by 1 ½ lengths in the United Nations Stakes (with a career-best 121 speed figure). With Big Blue Kitten's stablemate, Shining Copper¸ probably acting as a rabbit just as he did in the United Nations, both horses figure to be coming home strongly in the stretch and a win by either would be no surprise.
Notes about some of the rest: Although a win machine with 14 career victories, nine on the Arlington Park turf including a 114 speed figure effort winning the Stars and Stripes Stakes last month, The Pizza Man has failed to be competitive at the Grade 2 and Grade 1 level three times this year. Up With the Birds won the Grade 2 Nijinsky Stakes last summer with a 115 figure but that was at nine furlongs and he doesn't appear to be Grade 1 quality at this 1 ¼ mile-trip at which he is 0-for-2. Similarly, Quiet Force is just a Grade 3 stakes winner with a career-best 112 figure and would need to improve to be competitive with the main contenders here. Triple Threat was impressive winning the Monmouth Cup in his U.S. debut in June but the 102 figure was not and although a Group 2 stakes winner in France at this 1 ¼-mile distance, the win came in 2013 and his recent form appears a cut below the best in here.
THE PIZZA MAN
 
My Selections:Wake ForestMaverick WaveBig Blue KittenSlumber
$1-million Arlington Million Stakes
Saturday, Arlington Park, Race 10, 6:48 p.m. ET
1 ¼ miles, turf, 3-year-olds and older 

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

Odds

1

Up With the Birds

Drayden Van Dyke

Graham Motion

Sam-Son Farm

12-1

2

Slumber

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Chad Brown

Michael Dubb, Sheep Pond Partners and Bethlehem Stables

7-2

3

Bookrunner

Gerald Mosse

Mikel Delzangles

Papillon Stables and Tony Chedraoui

15-1

4

Big Blue Kitten

Joe Bravo

Chad Brown

Ken and Sarah Ramsey

3-1

5

Wake Forest

Eduardo Pedroza

Andreas Wohler

Klaus Allofs and Gestut Fahrhof

12-1

6

Legendary

Sheldon Russell

Niall Saville

Walter R. Swinburn

15-1

7

The Pizza Man

Florent Geroux

Roger Brueggemann

Midwest Thoroughbreds

10-1

8

Quiet Force

Robby Albarado

Mike Maker

Warner Thoroughbreds

15-1

9

Shining Copper

Chris Emigh

Chad Brown

Ken and Sarah Ramsey

30-1

10

Triple Threat

Jose Lezcano

Bill Mott

Team Valor International and Gary Barber

6-1

11

Maverick Wave

William Buick

John Gosden

Godolphin Racing

8-1

12

Elleval

Patrick Smullen

David Marnane

Damian Lavelle

30-1

13

Belgian Bill

Jamie Spencer

George Baker

PJL (George Baker)

30-1