Tip of the Week: Don’t Believe the Hype

No Entiendo won the opener on Aug. 10 at Saratoga Race Course after finishing second in his career debut. (Photo by Adam Coglianese/NYRA)
At some point before Dec. 31, unless the Curse of Apollo bites the dust, the winner of next year’s Kentucky Derby will make his debut.
Maybe she’ll make her debut.
Then again, perhaps that next classic winner has already graced a racetrack.
The point is that at this time of year, 2-year-old maiden races, especially at a track like Saratoga Race Course or Del Mar, often garner more attention than minor stakes because of who might be running in them.
Perhaps the winner of the 2016 Kentucky Derby will strut his/her stuff for the first time in a mid-August maiden race at the Spa. Maybe a couple of future graded stakes winners will put their talent on display at Del Mar.
Because of all that attention focused on regally bred runners from top outfits, however, there’s also plenty times when highly regarded foresters prove to be nothing but hype and a great betting opportunity pops up with an experienced horse.
A case in point was the first race at Saratoga on Aug. 10.
It was a maiden special weight affair for 2-year-olds bred in New York.
Among the field of nine were just two horses with racing experience. Cold Az Ice was listed at 20-to-1 on the morning line after finishing ninth in his career debut, and, apparently with only a handful of Foreigner fans in the house, was dismissed at 36-1.
He improved off his debut, but only slightly. He finished eighth.
The other horse in the field with some racetrack seasoning was No Entiendo, who had the rail and was priced at 5-to-1 on the morning line despite finishing second at Belmont Park in his career debut.
His speed figure wasn’t much, but 2-year-old New York state-breds rarely threaten track records.
Yet, in the eyes of the oddsmaker, two first-time starters held more appeal.
New York Song was the 3-to-1 choice in his debut for trainer Rick Violette. Dublinyourmoney was set at 7-to-2 in his debut try for trainer Lynn Whiting.
Both horses were working well but it certainly was fair to wonder if the two newcomers would both defeat a horse who set the early pace in his debut only to lose by a neck in the final yards.
Or could either of them, or anyone else in the field, beat a horse that had shown early speed in a 5 1/2-furlong race and should benefit from breaking from the rail in a 5-furlong contest.
It might be one thing to fear a firster in an open maiden race trained by Todd Pletcher who has people saying he’s the next Uncle Mo. Yet here the toteboard surely made it attractive to back a horse who had already proved he could break from the gate cleanly and quickly and flash some speed. Especially, when he’s the third choice in the wagering.
That 5-to-1 price on No Entiendo did not hold up as he dropped to 3.30-to-1 at post time, but he was still the third choice behind Dublinyourmoney (2.20-to-1) and New York Song (2.65-to-1).
Yet at the finish line he was the right choice as he once again used his early speed to build a clear lead and this time no one caught him. He posted a 1 1/2-length victory over Mind Your Biscuit, a firster sent off at 8.90-to-1, with New York Song third and Dublinyourmoney fourth.
It wasn’t a huge payoff, but at a track as difficult to handicap as Saratoga, even $8.60 is a nice reward.
THE LESSON: Don’t believe the hype all the time. Sometimes a horse with racing experience can offer solid value in a field filled with first-time starters.