Road to the Breeders’ Cup: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down

Taris returned to the races off a long layoff with a powerhouse victory in the Grade 3 Rancho Bernardo Stakes on Aug. 16 at Del Mar. (BENOIT photo)
A capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Road to the Breeders’ Cup World Championships and three horses whose Breeders’ Cup chances are not quite as strong as they were a week or two ago.
This blog usually doesn’t need an introduction because it’s pretty self explanatory, but this week was an exception. Both the heating up and cooling down categories were especially difficult.
It was really tough to narrow down the heating up candidates to just three as there were a few breakout performances that just missed the cut. I strongly considered Just Wicked off of her impressive rallying win in the Grade 2 Adirondack Stakes and another 2-year-old filly in Pretty N Cool after a dominant effort in the Grade 2 Sorrento Stakes. Sentiero Italia’s impressive win over a very talented opponent in Miss Temple City in the Grade 2 Lake Placid Stakes was a head turner and Tap to It’s powerhouse debut win made me want to learn more. (She’s by leading sire Tapit out of Grade 1 winner Leave Me Alone.)
As for the horses cooling down, I thought several horses who looked disappointing on paper actually ran surprisingly well after looking a little closer, such as Mshawish in the Fourstardave Stakes. I also had trouble deciding what to do with the big races at Arlington, where the condition of the turf course changed dramatically and very quickly.
The fact that these lists were so tough this week indicates to me that the competition is really beginning to heat up as we gear up for the key prep races on the Road to the Breeders’ Cup. It doesn’t get any easier for the horses from here on out, and I don’t expect it will get any easier for me writing this blog in the coming weeks, either.
Heating Up

1.   Taris    

BENOIT photo 

Taris is a filly with dazzling speed but injuries have prevented her from establishing herself as one of the elite female sprinters. There is no question about her talent and her return on Aug. 16 in the Grade 3 Rancho Bernardo Stakes was a reminder. Taris opened up a clear lead in early stretch under Hall of Famer Gary Stevens and streaked to a 2 ¾-length victory in a very swift 1:15.31 for 6 ½ furlongs given it was her first start in 7 ½ months. Given her one previous start on the main track at Keeneland, host of this year’s Breeders’ Cup, was a nine-length romp in the seven-furlong Raven Run Stakes that resulted in a career-best 122 Equibase Speed Figure, she figures to be a huge threat for the Filly and Mare Sprint at the same distance in a couple of months.

2. The Pizza Man   

Eclipse Sportswire 

What can you say about The Pizza Man? He’s the gift that keeps on giving, both on the racetrack and in the form of the nifty puns in headlines across America after his big wins. The Pizza Man is not nominated to the Breeders’ Cup, which means he would need to be supplemented, but his owners have shown a willingness to do so as recently as last year when they paid the late nomination fee and won the TwinSpires Breeders’ Cup Sprint with Work All Week. The Arlington Million showed me The Pizza Man can compete with top turf horses in the biggest races and he’s won a Grade 1 at 1 ¼ miles (this year’s million), 1 ½ miles (the Grade 3 Stars and Stripes in July at Arlington) and last year American St. Leger Stakes at 1 11/16 miles. This 6-year-old gelding should be a top threat for the 1 ½-mile Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf if he is supplemented, and I’ll bet owner Midwest Thoroughbreds rolls the dice.

3. Exaggerator   

Eclipse Sportswire

It can be tough handicapping early graded stakes races for 2-year-olds when most of the entrants are entering the race with just a maiden win to their credit and limited or no previous stakes experience. Exaggerator’s victory in the Saratoga Special Stakes was impressive to me for a couple of reasons. First, he shipped across the country for the race and handled the travel just fine. Second, he came through a narrow opening in the stretch to launch his winning rally, a hole many inexperienced 2-years-olds would not have raced through. Exaggerator also continued his steady rise in speed figures from 77 in his debut to 82 for his first career win to an 87 for the Saratoga Special. Exaggerator appears to be very professional for a colt with only three starts, and he gives his trainer Keith Desormeaux a shot for a second straight win in the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after Desormeaux won the race in 2014 with Texas Red.

Cooling Down

1. Slumber

Eclipse Sportswire

Until this summer, I had not been overly impressed with Slumber, but I have to admit his win in the Grade 1 Manhattan Stakes and runner-up finish in the Grade 1 United Nations Stakes proved eye-opening. Back-to-back Equibase Speed Figures of 123 and 119, respectively, for those two races placed Slumber right at the top of the turf male division in the U.S. Sent off as the 3-to-1 favorite in the Arlington Million on Aug. 15, Slumber encountered traffic trouble on the turn and finished a disappointing eighth of 13. Perhaps the troubled trip or the rain-softened turf course (which was firm just a few hours before steady rain left it yielding) led to the dull effort, but for now he drops from one of my top contenders for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf to outside of the top five.

2. Mr Speaker  

Eclipse Sportswire 

This Pulpit colt looked like a potential beast in 2014 when he won the Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes by a neck over European star Adelaide and recorded a career-best 113 Equibase Speed Figure. He is unplaced in four graded stakes since then, including two this year, and his only victory in four starts in 2015 came in an allowance race in July. His fourth-place finish in the Sky Classic Stakes on Aug. 16 was probably a little better than it looks on paper, but I was expecting a monster performance off of what looked to be a confidence-building allowance win. We just haven’t seen that explosive acceleration yet this year from Mr Speaker, who would figure to be a strong candidate for the Breeders’ Cup Mile if he can get back to the top of his game.

3. Karakontie 

Eclipse Sportswire

I wouldn’t put too much stock in defending Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Karakontie’s disappointing sixth-place finish in a Group 1 race in France on Aug. 16. He reared at the start and probably lost any chance before finishing evenly in the final furlong. What concerns me most is that I think he probably really needed that race in his first start in 9 ½ months from a fitness standpoint. From this point forward, he probably can’t have any missteps if he hopes to get back to the U.S. to attempt a repeat win in the Mile. He’s only 4 years old, so it’s not like he’s lost a step, and he does have an electric turn of foot, but it sure would have been nice to see him closing late for a top-three finish in his first start back. For now, he's more of a question mark than a top contender. 

Racing Terms
Allowance race – A race for which the racing secretary drafts certain conditions to determine weights to be carried based on the horse’s age, sex and/or past performance.
Also-eligible – A horse officially entered for a race, but not permitted to start unless the field is reduced by scratches below a specified number.
Apprentice – A rider who has not ridden a certain number of winners within a specified period of time. Also known as a “bug,” from the asterisk used to denote the weight allowance such riders receive.
Blinkers – A cup-shaped device that limits a horse’s vision. Blinkers, often used to try to improve a horse’s focus, come in a variety of sizes and shapes to allow as little or as much vision as the trainer feels is necessary.
Bullet – The fastest workout of the day at a track at a particular distance.
Claiming race – A race in which each horse entered is eligible to be purchased at a set price.
Closer – A horse that runs best in the latter part of the race, coming from off the pace.
Connections – Persons identified with a horse, such as owner, trainer, jockey and stable employees.
Disqualification – Change in order of finish by stewards for an infraction of the rules.
Dam – The mother of a horse.
Entry – Two or more horses with common ownership that are paired as a single betting unit in one race.
Front-runner – A horse whose running style is to attempt to get on or near the lead at the start of the race and to continue there as long as possible.
Furlong – An eighth of a mile.
Graded race – A non-restricted race with added money or guaranteed purse value of $100,000 or more which has been run at least twice under similar conditions and on the same surface and has been assigned graded status for the year contested by the American Graded Stakes Committee.
Handicap – This race type refers to a race where the weights are assigned by the track’s racing secretary or handicapper based upon past performances.
Length – A measurement approximating the length of a horse, used to denote distance between horses in a race.
Off track – A track that has a wet surface and isn’t labeled as “fast”.
Pacesetter – The horse that is running in front (on the lead).
Past performances – A horse’s racing record, earnings, bloodlines and other data, presented in composite form.
Prep – A workout (or race) used to prepare a horse for a future engagement.
Post Parade – Horses going from paddock to starting gate past the stands. The post parade provides spectators with a chance to get a final look at the horse before the race.
Post Position – Position of stall in starting gate from which a horse begins a race.
Rabbit – A speed horse running as an entry with another, usually a come-from-behind horse. The rabbit is expected to set a fast pace to help the chances of its stablemate.
Rank – A horse that refuses to settle under a jockey’s handling in a race, running in a headstrong manner without respect to pace.
Scratch – To be taken out of a race before it starts.
Silks – Jacket and cap worn by jockeys.
Sire – Father of a foal.
Stakes – A race for which the owner usually must pay a fee to run a horse. The fees can be for nominating, maintaining eligibility, entering and starting, to which the track adds more money to make up the total purse. Some stakes races are by invitation and require no payment or fee.