Red Vine Could Surprise Beholder in Pacific Classic

Red Vine, shown winning the Majestic Light Stakes, could spring the upset on champion Beholder in Saturday's Pacific Classic. (Photo by Bill Denver/Equiphoto)
The field for Del Mar's 25th running of the Grade 1, $1-million TVG Pacific Classic, a "Win and You're In" race for the Breeders' Cup Classic, is made up of 10 horses including last year's Breeders' Cup Classic winner Bayern, who is winless since then in three races. The field also includes multiple Eclipse Award-winning champion Beholder, racing against males for the first time in her career. Then there's Hard Aces and Hoppertunity, the one-two finishers in the Grade 2 Gold Cup Stakes at the Classic's mile and one-quarter distance in June.
Catch a Flight (ARG) is another proven in top company, victorious last month in the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap. Red Vine ships in from New York and won non-graded Majestic Light Stakes in May before a runner-up effort in the Grade 3 Salvatore Mile last month. Midnight Storm led late and finished second in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile on turf in June and has won on dirt so he could run well. Imperative finished second in the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic in April, a race he won the previous year, but has not raced since. Class Leader won the Sir Barton stakes last year as a 3-year-old but is winless in six races this year, while Bailoutbobby most recently finished second in the Grade 3 Cougar II Handicap over the track at a mile and a half.
Main contenders:
Red Vine ships thousands of miles from trainer Christophe Clement's home base in New York on the heels of four big races in a row. Starting last December, Red Vine won at the distance of one mile and one-eighth with a 110 Equibase Speed Figure then returned four months later in April to better that effort with a 114 figure. Running in a stakes for the first time in his next start, Red Vine dominated, albeit in a short field, earning a career best 122 while beating multiple graded stakes winner Valid easily. In his most recent race on July 5, Red Vine rallied for second after encountering trouble at the start and on the far turn or he might have won. What's very interesting to note is that Red Vine was bred to do his best running on turf and the first 13 races of his career were on the sod. Only when the race last December was moved to the main track did trainer Clement discover the horse really liked the dirt and he's run on it ever since. Added value comes in the form of jockey Joel Rosario, coming in from New York to ride. Rosario rode Red Vine earlier in his career on turf, including a runner-up effort by a neck at this mile and one-quarter trip and when Rosario rode regularly on the Southern California circuit he and Rafael Bejarano took turns winning the riding titles at each race meeting. In the end, considering the best in this group have earned 112 figures at best winning similar races, if Red Vine repeats any of his last three efforts he can post the upset.
Catch a Flight (ARG) has won three of his last four graded stakes races, the poorest effort of the bunch coming when leading late and settling for third behind Hard Aces and Hoppertunity in the Gold Cup Stakes in June. Rebounding to win the San Diego Handicap at Del Mar last month, Catch a Flight earned a career best 112 figure. Even though jockey Gary Stevens gets off Catch a Flight to ride Beholder, jockey Flavien Prat is a fine replacement as he rode the horse to victory in the Precisionist Stakes in May. With a 10 for 17 record in his career and having won at the similar distance of 1 3/16 miles in his native Argentina last year, Catch a Flight would be no surprise if winning his second graded stakes in a row at the Del Mar meeting.
CATCH A FLIGHT

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Midnight Storm moves to dirt after five straight turf races but was proven on dirt earlier in his career with a win and two runner-up finishes in four races. After winning the Del Mar Derby on turf last summer, Midnight Storm took seven months off and returned as a more mature 4-year-old to win easily in April with a career-best 121, which is the second-best figure (one behind Red Vine's 122) earned by any horse in this field in 2015. In his next start, Midnight Storm wasn't disgraced one bit when leading late and second, beaten a half-length, in the Shoemaker Mile. Although he regressed off the runner-up effort when finishing fifth in his most recent race, the Eddie Read Stakes, the two workouts on dirt Midnight Storm has put in this month have been nothing short of awesome and indicated he is really taking to the Del Mar dirt and should add to his career record of finishing first or second in seven of 10 races.
Notes about some others:
Bayern is a need-the-lead type, having earned his last five wins, including last year's Breeders' Cup Classic, when in front from start to finish. Whenever he has been challenged early or when he does not get the lead, he usually finishes off the board. His first two races this year after last year's Classic win were poor sixth and 10th place efforts in which he didn't get the lead early. In his most recent race, the San Diego Handicap at Del Mar last month, Bayern did get the lead in the opening quarter mile but was immediately taken on for that lead and eventually tired to third. Getting a jockey change to Del Mar leading jockey Bejarano for the Pacific Classic, and drawn inside any other potential early pace types, Bayern is likely to get the lead from the start he likes so much. Even then, with his best races coming as a three year old last year (118 in the Woody Stephens Stakes in June 2014), Bayern should be stalked by both Beholder and Midnight Storm from the onset and appears likely to be passed late by any number of closers.
Beholder is a champion with 13 wins in 18 races, but she's never raced beyond 1 1/8 miles and is taking on males for the first time. Although she does get a five-pound break in weight, and although she is all heart and a tremendous athlete, she just doesn't appear fast enough to win as her victory earlier this month in the Clement Hirsch Stakes at Del Mar earned a 108 figure. Even last year, Beholder earned 109 and 108 figures in her wins. As a 3-year-old in 2013 she may have been capable of beating these as she earned a 117 figure winning the Breeders' Cup Distaff but as a 5-year-old she may not be good enough.
BEHOLDER

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Hard Aces may be preferred by some bettors as he won the similar Gold Cup Stakes in June at this 1 ¼-mile distance. However, the race was very fast early and slow late and the ensuing 96 figure was very poor for the level. With only Bayern on the lead here, the early pace isn't going to be nearly as fast as it was in the Gold Cup so Hard Aces appears unlikely to repeat the effort.
Horses that can win, in preference order:
Red Vine
Catch a Flight
Midnight Storm
You can get Ellis' entire detailed analysis and selections for Del Mar at Equibase.com.
$1-million TVG Pacific Classic StakesDel Mar, Saturday, Race 9, 9:10 p.m. ET1 ¼ miles, dirt, 3-year-olds and older

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

Odds

1

Class Leader

Mike Smith

John Sadler

Lane's End Racing

15-1

2

Bailoutbobby

James Graham

Doug O'Neill

Calara Farms, Great Friends Stable, K. Jewgieniew, S. Keh and R3 Racing

20-1

3

Bayern

Rafael Bejarano

Bob Baffert

Kaleem Shah

6-1

4

Hard Aces

Victor Espinoza

John Sadler

Hronis Racing

5-1

5

Red Vine

Joel Rosario

Christophe Clement

Jon and Sarah Kelly

6-1

6

Imperative

Corey Nakatani

Richard Baltas

KM Racing Enterprise

12-1

7

Catch a Flight

Flavien Prat

Richard Mandella

Haras Santa Maria de Araras

9-2

8

Hoppertunity

Martin Garcia

Bob Baffert

Karl Watson, Mike Pegram and Paul Weitman

5-1

9

Beholder

Gary Stevens

Richard Mandella

Spendthrift Farm

5-2

10

Midnight Storm

Tyler Baze

Philip D'Amato

Dye, Marjorie Post, A Venneri Racing Inc. and Little Red Feather Racing

20-1