Good Cheer Has G1-Winning Foes in Sights in Cotillion

Three grade 1-winning 3-year-old fillies—Scottish Lassie , La Cara , and Good Cheer —have another opportunity for top-level stakes glory when they compete Sept. 20 at Parx Racing in the $1 million Cotillion Stakes (G1).

The eight-horse, 1 1/16-mile contest is the second-to-last grade 1 dirt race of the year of those restricted exclusively to 3-year-old fillies, followed only by the seven-furlong La Brea Stakes (G1) in late December at Santa Anita Park. Going forward, upper-level stakes over dirt routes require starting against older fillies and mares.

Scottish Lassie, La Cara, and Good Cheer are year-end championship contenders, though they're all chasing divisional leader Nitrogen , the last-out Alabama Stakes (G1) winner who is sitting the Cotillion out to await a start against older rivals in the Spinster Stakes (G1) next month at Keeneland. 

Godolphin's Good Cheer, a homebred daughter of Medaglia d'Oro  , was the divisional leader through the spring—remaining unbeaten in seven starts by taking the most prestigious race for 3-year-old fillies of the year, the May 2 Kentucky Oaks (G1) at Churchill Downs. Her stock has fallen following two consecutive losses, however. The Brad Cox trainee was fifth in the June 6 Acorn Stakes (G1) over a sloppy track at Saratoga Race Course before a competitive effort when second in the Alabama at Saratoga, beaten 1 1/2 lengths by Nitrogen.

Luis Saez, aboard for eight of her nine starts, returns in the irons.

Working in the late runner's favor Saturday is an expected quick pace. La Cara and Scottish Lassie prefer to race on or close to the pace, and the Cotillion further includes a stretching-out, graded-winning sprinter in Indy Bay , winner of the seven-furlong Charles Town Oaks (G2) Aug. 22.

Likely to benefit from a cutback in distance is Tracy Farmer's La Cara, a daughter of Street Sense  , who weakened to fourth in the 1 1/4-mile Alabama. The front-runner won the 1 1/16-mile Ashland Stakes (G1) in April and added the 1 1/8-mile Acorn in June.

She finished 14 lengths behind stablemate Nitrogen in the Alabama, perhaps impacted by missing a start in the July 19 Coaching Club American Oaks Invitational Stakes (G1) due to a brief summer quarantine of her Saratoga barn.

She is drawn just outside the rail-drawn Scottish Lassie in post 2. Casse said his instructions to jockey Dylan Davis will send La Cara to the lead.

"I don't know what the other filly will do who is inside of us," he said. "It could get very interesting early. (La Cara) likes to be on the lead, and we are not going to take that away from her."

Jorge Abreu chose to sit out the Alabama with Scottish Lassie, who he co-owns with Sportsmen Stable, Parkland Thoroughbreds, Photos Finish, Corms Racing Stable, after her 15 1/2-length victory in the Coaching Club American Oaks at Saratoga. The win was the second blowout of her career after a nine-length romp in the Frizette Stakes (G1) last fall when she entered that race as a maiden. Those two romps generated lofty speed figures but came against lineups weakened by scratches.

Her four other starts have resulted in three thirds and a fourth.

Abreu intends to leave tactics on Scottish Lassie, a daughter of McKinzie  , to jockey Joel Rosario, though he suggested La Cara will make the lead.

Indiana Oaks (G3) winner Clicquot , minor stakes winners Not Too Late  and Dry Powder , and the stakes-placed Ourdaydreaminggirl  complete the field.

The Cotillion is the 13th of 15 races Saturday at Parx, one race before the Pennsylvania Derby (G1).

Insights from Thoro-Graph

• Scottish Lassie ran well last fall, then disappeared for six months. In her second start back, she matched her 2-year-old top before an explosive run last time, earning the best Thoro-Graph figure any 3-year-old filly has run this year. If she runs back to that, she'll win, and Abreu wisely gave her extra time before running her back. But that big a jump, to that big an effort for a 3-year-old filly, is almost sure to take a toll for some time, and we don't expect Scottish Lassie to run as well this time.
• La Cara hasn't developed much throughout this year. On her best, she's a borderline contender, but that last one might be a sign she's ready to tail off.
• Clicquot has pounded out the same good figure in her past three, but she would need a significant forward move to threaten here.
• Indy Bay delivered a big one for Saffie Joseph in April, and it took something out of her. In her last, she made a little move back toward her top, and that came in her first try around two turns, albeit at a shorter distance. This filly gets more than a Thoro-Graph point worth of weight from the main contenders, and another forward move would put her right there. If there's a live longshot in the race, it's this one.
• Good Cheer has at least matched her top in every race, save for the lone non-effort in the Acorn. This filly's best race is not as good as that of Scottish Lassie, but she's far more likely to fire, and is clearly the one to beat.
• Dry Powder jumped to a big figure to win the local prep, but a regression is likely.

Thoro-Graph performance figures are calculated based on a race's time with adjustments for beaten lengths, track speed, ground loss, weight carried, and, when necessary, wind. The lower the number, the better the race. Complimentary sheets for this week's race can be found online at Thoro-Graph. Learn more about how to analyze Thoro-Graph data at www.thorograph.com/basics.