Road to the Breeders’ Cup: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down

Beholder was dominant in the TVG Pacific Classic Stakes on Aug. 22 at Del Mar, romping in her first start against males and earning a starting spot in the Breeders' Cup Classic. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
A capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Road to the Breeders’ Cup World Championships and three horses whose Breeders’ Cup chances are not quite as strong as they were a week or two ago.
Heating Up

1.  Beholder    

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Beholder needed to turn in a “Wow!” performance in the TVG Pacific Classic Stakes to make this list, even though it was her first race against males. She has been so good and so consistent for so long, that only a tour de force effort could have improved her standing in my eyes. Boy, did she ever deliver! Her visually stunning 8 ¼-length runaway win in the Pacific Classic, with a time just a few ticks off the track record, bumped her from probable overwhelming favorite for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff to perhaps the second choice, behind only Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, should her connections opt to target the $5-million Breeders’ Cup Classic. She also virtually cemented the Eclipse Award as champion older female and, for me, went from a sure-fire Hall of Famer to a first-ballot Hall of Famer with one unforgettable victory. Should Beholder run in the Distaff, anything more than 3-to-5 odds would be a gift, and she would be an obvious single for Pick 4 and Pick 3 players. In the Classic, she would give American Pharoah a serious run for the money.

2. Embellish the Lace    

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I really liked Embellish the Lace in the Grade 1 Mother Goose Stakes following a pair of wins by a combined margin of 24 lengths. But after a ninth-place finish in the Mother Goose, I jumped off of her bandwagon. She returned to top form in the Alabama Stakes when she led every step of the way en route to a 1 ¼-length win. In a 3-year-old filly division that lacks a runaway leader, Embellish the Lace could enter the Eclipse Award discussion by stringing together a couple of major victories. There also could be a huge opportunity for a career-defining win in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff should Beholder’s connections opt to target the Classic. Embellish the Lace earned a career-best 100 Equibase Speed Figure for her Alabama win, a four-point jump from her previous best figure and an increase that should not prove too taxing. From the first crop of 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, Embellish the Lace is out of the stakes-placed, winning Distant View mare Expanse, who also is the dam (mother) of 2010 Travers Stakes winner Afleet Express. I think there is plenty of room for growth with Embellish the Lace and she has every right to continue to improve.

3. Appealing Tale   

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This was a tough call because I really liked Delightful Joy’s win in the Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks and I think Del Mar Mile Handicap winner Avanzare is one of the more underrated horses in training in the U.S., but the latter is not Breeders’ Cup nominated. I landed on Appealing Tale because I think he’s becoming more consistent, he’s versatile and it’s pretty clear he’s at the top of his game after a win in the Grade 2 Pat O’Brien Stakes. Although the seven-furlong Pat O’Brien Stakes drew only a four-horse field, Appealing Tale faced pressure throughout from Wild Dude and gamely held him off in the stretch. He earned a starting spot in the Las Vegas Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile via the “Win and You’re In” Challenge Series but could also be a contender for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Appealing Tale has two wins and three seconds in his last five starts with speed figures ranging from 112 to 115 in his last four races. His career-best Equibase Speed Figure is a 115, which he’s earned on three separate occasions, including twice in his last three races. He’s very good right now and his game runner-up finish in the 1 1/16-mile, Grade 2 San Diego Handicap legitimizes his chances in the Dirt Mile.

Cooling Down

1. Bayern

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Bayern closed out his 2014 season with four wins in his final five starts, capped by a front-running win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. His best finish in four starts this season is a third earned in the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap. Bayern was beaten by 11 ¾ lengths in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Stakes, 28 ½ lengths in the Met Mile and 22 ½ lengths in the TVG Pacific Classic on Aug. 22. It’s tough to see a horse who was so good last year performing so poorly, but it seems pretty apparent we are not seeing the same powerhouse who graced the racetrack in 2014. He’s always been an all-or-nothing type who either wins or comes up empty, so perhaps he could rediscover his elite form in a big race. But Bayern is running out of time, and with one strong performance in four starts this year, it’s tough to have much confidence in last year’s Classic victor.

2. Lovely Maria  

Eclipse Sportswire 

Earlier this season Lovely Maria paired a win in the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes with a career-defining win in the Kentucky Oaks. With speed figures of 106 and 105, respectively for those two wins, Lovely Maria appeared poised to take command in the 3-year-old filly division. She returned from a layoff with a disappointing fifth-place finish in the Delaware Oaks, but the 101 speed figure was cause to believe she could build upon that effort. Unfortunately, she regressed in the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes on Aug. 22 and faded to sixth, beaten by 7 ¾ lengths. Her trainer Larry Jones is an absolute master with fillies, a filly whisperer if you will, so there is reason for hope. But right now it looks like her stablemate I’m a Chatterbox (second in the Alabama) is the much bigger threat for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

3. Bobby's Kitten 

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I considered going with Kobe’s Back here off a lackluster last-place finish in the Pat O’Brien Stakes on Aug. 22, but Bobby's Kitten got the nod based upon much higher expectations coming into the season. Making his first start since his win in the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint last November, Bobby’s Kitten led early in the Grade 2 Play the King Stakes on Aug. 23 at Woodbine before fading badly and finishing seventh, beaten by eight lengths in an eight-horse field as the 6-to-5 favorite. The 97 Equibase Speed Figure he earned was his worst since last July in the Belmont Invitational Derby Stakes and 19 points off the 116 he earned in the 2014 Turf Sprint. In this case, I think we could see significant improvement in his next start, but it would have been encouraging to see a little bit more fight in the Play the King stretch. 

Racing Terms
Allowance race – A race for which the racing secretary drafts certain conditions to determine weights to be carried based on the horse’s age, sex and/or past performance.
Also-eligible – A horse officially entered for a race, but not permitted to start unless the field is reduced by scratches below a specified number.
Apprentice – A rider who has not ridden a certain number of winners within a specified period of time. Also known as a “bug,” from the asterisk used to denote the weight allowance such riders receive.
Blinkers – A cup-shaped device that limits a horse’s vision. Blinkers, often used to try to improve a horse’s focus, come in a variety of sizes and shapes to allow as little or as much vision as the trainer feels is necessary.
Bullet – The fastest workout of the day at a track at a particular distance.
Claiming race – A race in which each horse entered is eligible to be purchased at a set price.
Closer – A horse that runs best in the latter part of the race, coming from off the pace.
Connections – Persons identified with a horse, such as owner, trainer, jockey and stable employees.
Disqualification – Change in order of finish by stewards for an infraction of the rules.
Dam – The mother of a horse.
Entry – Two or more horses with common ownership that are paired as a single betting unit in one race.
Front-runner – A horse whose running style is to attempt to get on or near the lead at the start of the race and to continue there as long as possible.
Furlong – An eighth of a mile.
Graded race – A non-restricted race with added money or guaranteed purse value of $100,000 or more which has been run at least twice under similar conditions and on the same surface and has been assigned graded status for the year contested by the American Graded Stakes Committee.
Handicap – This race type refers to a race where the weights are assigned by the track’s racing secretary or handicapper based upon past performances.
Length – A measurement approximating the length of a horse, used to denote distance between horses in a race.
Off track – A track that has a wet surface and isn’t labeled as “fast”.
Pacesetter – The horse that is running in front (on the lead).
Past performances – A horse’s racing record, earnings, bloodlines and other data, presented in composite form.
Prep – A workout (or race) used to prepare a horse for a future engagement.
Post Parade – Horses going from paddock to starting gate past the stands. The post parade provides spectators with a chance to get a final look at the horse before the race.
Post Position – Position of stall in starting gate from which a horse begins a race.
Rabbit – A speed horse running as an entry with another, usually a come-from-behind horse. The rabbit is expected to set a fast pace to help the chances of its stablemate.
Rank – A horse that refuses to settle under a jockey’s handling in a race, running in a headstrong manner without respect to pace.
Scratch – To be taken out of a race before it starts.
Silks – Jacket and cap worn by jockeys.
Sire – Father of a foal.
Stakes – A race for which the owner usually must pay a fee to run a horse. The fees can be for nominating, maintaining eligibility, entering and starting, to which the track adds more money to make up the total purse. Some stakes races are by invitation and require no payment or fee.