Two Horses Capable of Defeating Pharoah in Travers
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Texas Red (in front) and Frosted look like the two horses in the best position to upset American Pharoah. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
Saratoga has long held the ominous distinction as the “Graveyard of Champions.” That phrase has been uttered a lot in recent weeks in speculation as to why, potentially, team American Pharoah waited so long to announce that it was shipping the Triple Crown winner to Saratoga for the Travers this Saturday.
But just because Man o’ War lost at Saratoga to Upset (yes, the horse who helped popularize the term for an unexpected result), and because horses like Gallant Fox and Secretariat lost here, that doesn’t mean that American Pharoah might actually lose here. Or does it?
While I wouldn’t encourage anyone to bet against American Pharoah with any confidence, I can try to at least build a case for the only two horses who I think have a shot at beating him: Texas Red and Frosted.
What you’re about to read is not a prediction of American Pharoah being “upset” in the Travers, but merely speculation of what might be possible if American Pharoah were to run his worse race to date on Saturday and his competitors were to run their best.
Let’s start with Texas Red. The son of Afleet Alex won last year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in dominating fashion. American Pharoah was supposed to run in that race but scratched with a hoof issue. Texas Red returned in 2015 with a strong showing in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes before being sidelined with injury throughout this year’s Triple Crown series.
TEXAS RED WINNING THE BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE
Since coming back in July, Texas Red has given every indication that he’s not only sound but that he’s without a doubt one of the best 3-year-olds in the country. His runner-up finish to Speightster in the Dwyer Stakes off of a long layoff was impressive and he built upon it with a gutsy victory last out in the Jim Dandy Stakes over Frosted.
With Texas Red, you’ve also got a horse who is more lightly raced than most of his foes in the Travers. The race will be only his third start since February. By contrast, American Pharoah will be running his seventh race in that span. If you’re backing Texas Red, you also have to like the fact that he showed he can win over the track last out and that he can do it while being up with the pace.
As far as Frosted goes, he comes out of a brave runner-up finish to Texas Red in the Jim Dandy, in which Frosted actually lost one of his shoes. With the exception of the Kentucky Derby and the Fountain of Youth Stakes, Frosted has finished no worse than second in eight other career starts. He’s as honest as they come and his work tab shows several nice workouts at Saratoga.
My case for Frosted is based on the expectation that there won’t be much pace in the Travers and that Frosted, when asked, has shown the ability to flash early speed. His trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has had a sensational meet and figures to be able to move Frosted up in his second race off a layoff dating back to his runner-up finish to American Pharoah in the Belmont Stakes.
As I noted at the top, Frosted and Texas Red would likely have to run their best race ever on Saturday, while hoping that American Pharoah isn’t at his best. For the all-or-nothing risk-taking gambler out there, two large win bets on both Frosted and Texas Red (assuming they both go off at odds of 8-1 or higher) might be something to consider. Then again, if the real American Pharoah shows up, you might also consider the aforementioned bet wasted money.
Betting Strategy:
$.50 trifecta: 2,4,6/2,4,6/ALL
Total: $24
$1,250,000 Travers S.
Saturday, Saratoga Race Course, Race 11, 5:46 p.m. ET
1 ¼ miles, dirt, 3-year-olds
TV: NBC from 4-6 p.m. ET
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owner
Odds
1
Upstart
Irad Ortiz Jr.
Rick Violette
Ralph M. Evans and WinStar Farm
15-1
2
American Pharoah
Victor Espinoza
Bob Baffert
Zayat Stables
1-5
3
Mid Ocean
Manuel Franco
George Weaver
Bermuda Limestone Thoroughbreds
50-1
4
Texas Red
Kent Desormeaux
Keith Desormeaux
Erich Brehm, Wayne Detmar, Lee Michaels, Keith Desormeaux, et al.
8-1
5
Frammento
Jose Ortiz
Nick Zito
Mossarosa
30-1
6
Frosted
Joel Rosario
Kiaran McLaughlin
Godolphin Racing
6-1
7
Keen Ice
Javier Castellano
Dale Romans
Donegal Racing
12-1
8
Tale of Verve
Gary Stevens
Dallas Stewart
Charles E. Fipke
30-1
9
King of New York
Julien Leparoux
Ken McPeek
Harold Lerner
50-1
10
Smart Transition
John Velazquez
John Shirreffs
Arnold Zetcher
20-1