Texas Red, American Pharoah Showdown Looms in Travers

Texas Red looks to give American Pharoah some competition as they clash in Saturday's Travers Stakes. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
The 146th running of the Grade 1, $1.25-million Travers Stakes brings together a field of 10 at Saratoga but all eyes will be on Triple Crown winner American Pharoah as he attempts to add to his perfect six-for-six record this year. Assuming American Pharoah starts, the purse will be increased to $1.6 million. Coming off an easy win in the Grade 1 William Hill Haskell Invitational Stakes 27 days ago and untested in the last eighth of a mile in the Preakness and Belmont prior to that, it appears the Travers is American Pharoah's race to lose.
That being said, we must recall a similar narrative last year in the race when Haskell winner Bayern was sent to post as the favorite only to finish last while this handicapper's top choice, V. E. Day, posted the upset at odds of 19-1. Haskell runner-up Keen Ice, winless in six starts this year, as well as Haskell third-place finisher Upstart, return to try to make a race of it.
Then there are the one-two finishers in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes run four weeks ago at Saratoga, Texas Red and Frosted. Texas Red finished third to American Pharoah before winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall and Frosted finished second to the Triple Crown winner in the Belmont prior to the Jim Dandy. The only other horse in the Travers field with a showing at the level is Preakness runner-up Tale of Verve. Additionally, as V. E. Day won the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga before the Travers it must be noted that this year's Curlin Stakes winner, Smart Transition, is trying to duplicate that effort.
Win contenders:
In my opinion, there are two horses possessing the bulk of the probability to win the Travers this year, American Pharoah and Texas Red. Considering Texas Red opens at 8-1 odds compared to 1-5 for American Pharoah the choice of which to bet to win is as easy as they come. Texas Red was the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby back in February, closing at lower odds than American Pharoah in the second Derby future pool (Feb. 8). This was based on his eye-catching and decisive six-length victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last October, a race American Pharoah had to skip because of a bruise. Texas Red had a similar misfortune when he had a foot abscess in February, causing him to miss the entire Triple Crown season. The rest, as they say, is history, or at least it was for American Pharoah.
In the meantime, Texas Red recovered and returned to the races in July, first finishing second with a career best 107 Equibase Speed Figure in the Dwyer Stakes before improving to a 112 figure when victorious four weeks ago in the Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga. Experience at Saratoga was important last year in the Travers, as winner V. E. Day had won the Curlin Stakes over the track one month earlier while runner-up Wicked Strong had won the Jim Dandy. Familiarity with the surface is one advantage Texas Red may have over American Pharoah, and with that 112 figure the same as the figure American Pharoah earned winning the Haskell and likely to be improved upon as Texas Red is making his third start following a layoff, the stretch run of this year's Travers between these two colts could be one for the ages.
American Pharoah has not lost a step since the beginning of his Derby prep season in March. He won the Rebel Stakes with a 107 Equibase Speed Figure and then consistently ran just as fast, ranging from 108 in the Arkansas Derby to 112 when winning the Belmont Stakes to become the first Triple Crown in 37 years. In front by an average of four lengths with an eighth of a mile to go in the Preakness, Belmont and Haskell before coasting to victory in each race, American Pharoah has beaten many of these over and over. As such, any threat to the champion must come from a new shooter such as Texas Red. With a very strong seven-furlong workout in California before coming to New York, American Pharoah is showing he is still in top physical condition and it may very well be that he can extend his winning streak to nine in a row in the Travers.
FROSTED

Frosted and Keen Ice both seem very capable of finishing third or fourth in the race as they each try very hard. Frosted missed to Texas Red in the Jim Dandy by a half-length when second, earning a career best 111 figure following his runner-up effort in the Belmont. He tries hard and is just a cut below the best in the division. Keen Ice ran the best race of his career (109 figure) when second in the Haskell and with jockey Kent Desormeaux moving to Texas Red gets an able replacement in North American leading jockey Javier Castellano so he should be passing most of these in the stretch.
The rest of the Travers Stakes field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures is Frammento (95), King of New York (100), Mid Ocean (89), Smart Transition (100), Tale of Verve (101) and Upstart (105).
Win contenders:Texas RedAmerican Pharoah 
For third and fourth:FrostedKeen Ice
You can get Ellis' entire Travers Day detailed analysis and selections at Equibase.com.
$1,250,000 Travers S.
Saturday, Saratoga Race Course, Race 11, 5:46 p.m. ET
1 ¼ miles, dirt, 3-year-olds
TV: NBC from 4-6 p.m. ET

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

Odds

1

Upstart

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Rick Violette

Ralph M. Evans and WinStar Farm

15-1

2

American Pharoah

Victor Espinoza

Bob Baffert

Zayat Stables

1-5

3

Mid Ocean

Manuel Franco

George Weaver

Bermuda Limestone Thoroughbreds

50-1

4

Texas Red

Kent Desormeaux

Keith Desormeaux

Erich Brehm, Wayne Detmar, Lee Michaels, Keith Desormeaux, et al.

8-1

5

Frammento

Jose Ortiz

Nick Zito

Mossarosa

30-1

6

Frosted

Joel Rosario

Kiaran McLaughlin

Godolphin Racing

6-1

7

Keen Ice

Javier Castellano

Dale Romans

Donegal Racing

12-1

8

Tale of Verve

Gary Stevens

Dallas Stewart

Charles E. Fipke

30-1

9

King of New York

Julien Leparoux

Ken McPeek 

Harold Lerner

50-1

10

Smart Transition

John Velazquez

John Shirreffs

Arnold Zetcher

20-1