Canaletto, Blackout Time Crack Derby Dozen Rankings

1. Ted Noffey 

Owner/Trainer: Spendthrift Farm/Todd Pletcher

Into Mischief  —Streak of Luck , by Old Fashioned 

Breeder: Aaron and Marie Jones LLC (KY)

A day after being honored with an Eclipse Award as the champion 2-year-old male of 2025, Ted Noffey was back at work at Palm Beach Downs for two-time Kentucky Derby (G1)-winning trainer Todd Pletcher, breezing a half-mile in company Jan. 23 in :50.81. The breeze obviously was not intended to be demanding, this being his first half-mile since he capped a 4-for-4 campaign at 2 by winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). His workout rider had him under a hammerlock throughout. A three-time grade 1 winner, with two of those at a route, he is battle-proven in ways others on this list are not. The Feb. 28 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) is next.

Watch: Half to Sandman Lands in Derby Dozen Off Flashy Debut

2. Further Ado 

Owner/Trainer: Spendthrift Farm/Brad Cox

Gun Runner  —Sky Dreamer , by Sky Mesa

Breeder: John C. Oxley (KY)

After his 1 3/4-length win in the Nov. 29 Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs, in which he seemed to shut down pretty quickly on the gallop out, trainer Brad Cox gave him a little break. Can understand the move, as the colt regressed on speed figures in the KJC relative to his 20-length romp in his first two-turn test when racing in a 1 1/16-mile race at Keeneland a month earlier. He resumed breezing Jan. 25 with a 3-furlong breeze in :37 at Payson Park as Cox eases him back in the flow. Probably another three or four workouts away from becoming race fit.

3. Commandment 

Owner/Trainer: Wathnan Racing/Cox

Into Mischief—Sippican Harbor , by Orb 

Breeder: Lee Pokoik (KY)

Cox gave this one a few weeks off from breezing after his head-turning victory in the 1-mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes Jan. 3 at Gulfstream Park—a race that surprisingly offers no qualifying points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, even though some other 1-turn mile races do. So this colt is still at 0 on the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard. His other victory came in a second-out 7-furlong maiden score in the fall at Churchill Downs. A potential showdown with Ted Noffey could take place in the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth, though there are a number of other Derby options always available.

4. Paladin 

Owner/Trainer: Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Peter Brant, Brook Smith, and Summer Wind Equine/Chad Brown

Gun Runner—Secret Sigh , by Tapit   

Breeder: Summer Wind Equine (KY)

After winning his debut via disqualification, Paladin took last fall's Remsen Stakes (G2) to stamp himself as a bona fide Kentucky Derby contender. As for the Remsen not producing a Derby winner since Thunder Gulch wore the Garland of Roses in 1995, best to chalk it up to bad luck. Some high-quality horses have run in it, such as the race's 1-2 finishers from 2023: eventual Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Dornoch   and eventual Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Sierra Leone  . The latter—saddled by Paladin's trainer Chad Brown—missed in the Derby by a nose when runner-up to a ground-saving Mystik Dan  .

5. Brant 

Owner/Trainer: Zedan Racing Stables/Bob Baffert

Gun Runner—Tynan , by Liam's Map  

Breeder: PTK (KY)

Though there are concerns about this colt at the Derby's distance of 1 1/4 miles after his fade to third in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile, one thing not in question is Brant's talent. He's a gifted horse, a $3 million purchase last year as a juvenile who went on to win his first two starts, including the 2025 Del Mar Futurity (G1). Fully expecting him to have a successful campaign this year in short routes in California, but less enthusiastic about his prospects at 1 1/8 miles and beyond when matched against deeper lineups.

6. Litmus Test 

Owner/Trainer: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Golconda Stable, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan/Baffert

Nyquist  —Study Hard , by Malibu Moon

Breeder: Machmer Hall (KY)

Six-time Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert has repeatedly said that added distance will suit this colt. He showed a nice finish late last year in winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), a race that 2025 Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Journalism  captured in 2024. Litmus Test didn't catch the eye the same way in winning that race, however. Before that race, he was third once and fourth twice in three grade 1 outings at 2 last year; entered in the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park, a race that has been postponed from Jan. 31 until Friday, Feb. 6, due to sub-freezing conditions in Arkansas.

7. Incredibolt 

Owner/Trainer: Pin Oak Stud/Riley Mott

Bolt d'Oro  —Sapphire Spitfire , by Awesome Again 

Breeder: Deann Baer & Greg Baer DVM (KY)

This Riley Mott trainee is set to swing back into action for the first time since winning the Oct. 26 Street Sense Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs when he competes in the Jan. 31 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park. The short stretch that comes into play in 1 1/16-mile races may prove a disadvantage to a horse with his late-running style, but he at least drew the rail, which may better allow him to keep his rivals in range. His 5-furlong workout in company in 1:02.30 Jan. 23 at Palm Meadows does not jump out as quick, but he was always traveling much easier than workmate Whine Country and left him easily with a cue from his rider on the gallop out.

8. Golden Tempo 

Owner/Trainer: Phipps Stable & St. Elias Stable/Cherie DeVaux

Curlin  —Carrumba , by Bernardini

Breeder: Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stables (KY)

Progeny of Curlin consistently produce in dirt routes, and he was no exception in the Jan. 17 Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots. Despite having just a single 6-furlong debut win under his belt, he ran the 1 1/16-mile distance like a seasoned pro, running down the opposition with a rally from last to improve to 2-for-2. With the Fair Grounds surface playing quickly, his 1:44.98 time netted him weak speed figures across the board. He obviously has room for further development.

9. Strategic Risk 

Owner/Trainer: John Oxley/Mark Casse

Noble Bird —Strategize , by Afleet Alex 

Breeder: John Oxley Living Trust (FL)

Like other horses at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas (plus those stabled in Kentucky, Maryland, New York, and other states), his training has been affected by harsh winter weather in recent days. Training was canceled Jan. 27 at Oaklawn, as it was the day before. One edge he has from a fitness perspective is that he has kept an active racing schedule, winning the Nov. 29 FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality Stakes at Gulfstream before adding the Jan. 3 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn; entered to compete in the Southwest Stakes, which has been postponed from Saturday to Friday, Feb. 6. 

10. Nearly 

Owner/Trainer: Centennial Farms/Pletcher

Not This Time  —Ib Prospecting , by Mineshaft  

Breeder: Wind Hill Farm (FL)

He and fellow Pletcher trainee Class President  posted the co-fastest half-mile breeze of Jan. 24 at Palm Beach Downs in clocking the distance in :48.59. That swift work hints that another top performance is forthcoming in Saturday's Holy Bull Stakes (G3) for this up-and-comer, who has rattled off a couple of good-looking triumphs at Gulfstream this winter. Neither of those wins, however, came around two turns, so the Holy Bull should tell us a lot. His dam's two victories came in sprints, though there are stamina elements elsewhere in his pedigree.

11. Canaletto 

Owner/Trainer: Magnier, Tabor, Derrick Smith, Brant, and Brook Smith/Brown

Into Mischief—Distorted Music , by Distorted Humor  

Breeder: Lothenbach Stables (KY)

Debuting in a maiden race Jan. 25 at Gulfstream, this long-striding colt impressed by showing controllable speed under Flavien Prat, a quick burst when asked to pick up his pace on the turn, and then a strong finish to score by 8 lengths. The $1 million yearling clocked a mile in 1:36.28, earning an 89 Beyer Speed Figure and a 94 Equibase Speed Figure. A son of Into Mischief and a half brother to graded stakes winners She Can't Sing  and Sandman , he has pedigree in addition to talent. These strengths will have to offset his limited experience if he is to have Derby success. It's not impossible. Justify   (2018) and Mage   (2023) won the Derby after auspicious winter debuts as 3-year-olds.

12. Blackout Time  

Owner/Trainer: Brookdale Racing, Lance Gasaway, and Magdalena Racing/Kenny McPeek

Not This Time  —Beauty Parlor , by Elusive Quality 

Breeder: Newstead Corp (KY)

Returning to the published worktab for the first time since being a regulatory scratch from the Oct. 31 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) at Del Mar, he joins the Derby Dozen rankings, and he has potential to ascend further if his training goes without a hitch. He still must record a 5-furlong breeze to work his way off the vet's list, along with clearing medication tests and other protocols. Coming off just his first three-eighths work, we likely won't see the Breeders' Futurity (G1) runner-up in action until March.