Derby Trail: Three Rising, Three Trending Down

Samraat outfinished Uncle Sigh and In Trouble to remain unbeaten with a win in the Gotham Stakes on March 1 at Aqueduct. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)

Below is a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose Derby chances are not quite as strong as they once were.

Heating Up
1. Samraat

Samraat’s Gotham Stakes win was impressive for a number of reasons. If you read this week’s Inside the Trip blog from our friends at Trakus, you’ll know that Samraat raced significantly wider than runner-up Uncle Sigh and third-place finisher In Trouble. So not only did Samraat run faster in the Gotham, he ran farther, too. Even more importantly, for me, is that we have proof from his last two races – a one-length win in the Withers and the Gotham – that Samraat is battled-tested and a fighter. When I’m looking for a Kentucky Derby horse, I want a fighter. Samraat improved from a 95 Equibase Speed Figure in his 2014 debut to a 103 in the Gotham, a step forward but not quite equal to the career-top 108 he posted as a 2-year-old ... so there’s still room to improve.

2. In Trouble

In Trouble was making his first start in a race longer than three-quarters of a mile (six furlongs) in the Gotham Stakes and also was returning to the races for the first time since winning the Grade 2 Futurity Stakes on Sept. 29 at Belmont Park. Given the circumstances, I thought he performed admirably in finishing third, beaten by a half-length by one of the top Derby hopefuls. In Trouble’s Equibase Speed Figure was a new career-best 103 in his first time in a two-turn race. While I don’t love his pedigree for classic distances, I do think In Trouble has a shot to win a key Derby prep race.

3. Spot

All eyes were on the talented No Nay Never in the Swale Stakes on March 1, but it was a Nick Zito-trained gelding who stole the spotlight in the stretch. Spot closed from well off the pace to win the Swale by an easy 2 ½ lengths and in the process rolled right on by No Nay Never, who is a Group 1 winner in Europe on the grass and almost certainly better suited to turf racing. Still, Spot beat a nice opponent in the Swale, posted a career-top 99 Equibase Speed Figure, and was visually impressive in doing so. Is Spot a real Derby threat? Let's not get carried away off a win in a seven-furlong race. But he definitely looks like a 3-year-old to add to your Virtual Stable.

Cooling Off
1. Harpoon

I was sky high on Harpoon after his fast-finishing second in the Sam F. Davis Stakes on Feb. 1. His fifth-place finish in the Gotham, beaten by 5 ¾ lengths, did not inspire optimism. It’s certainly possible that he just didn’t care for the inner track at Aqueduct, but I think we also have to consider the possibility that he might just be a cut below the best 3-year-olds right now. This is still a very nice colt with a bright future, but he still has only one career win and has much to prove on the Triple Crown trail.

2. Bond Holder

I really like Bond Holder’s pedigree for the classics, but this week’s Tampa Bay Derby marks the second planned start he has missed for trainer Doug O’Neill. Bond Holder, winner of the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes at two, was withdrawn from the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes on Feb. 22 after he was injured on the flight from Southern California to New Orleans. Now at Tampa Bay Downs, he has not recovered sufficiently to contest the Tampa Bay Derby. That’s a lot of travel without a race to show for it this year. Give credit to O’Neill for not pushing Bond Holder, whom he clearly thinks very highly of, but there is a lot to do to get this Mineshaft colt Derby-ready and time is running out.

3. Havana

Havana was a finalist for the Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male in 2013 after winning the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes and finishing second in the 2013 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. It was a little surprising when trainer Todd Pletcher said the seven-furlong Swale was the choice for his season debut, but I could see the logic behind starting him back off a long break in a sprint. Unfortunately, a quarter crack in his right front foot caused Havana to miss the race. This is a quality horse who proved an elite runner at two, but on the path to the Kentucky Derby any setback is a big one. It’s going to be very tough at this point to have him ready to run a career-best race on the first Saturday in May.

Curry's Derby Top 10:
1. Honor Code
Solid recent workout, on track for Rebel Stakes on March 15.

2. Cairo Prince  
Probably the best credentials of anyone on this list.

3. Conquest Titan 
Returns Saturday in Tampa Bay Derby, like his chances on Derby trail.

4. Top Billing 
Eager for next race, didn't learn much from Fountain of Youth

5. Candy Boy
Right now, looks like probable Santa Anita Derby favorite.

6. Tapiture
A lot to like, but still not sure he wants 1 1/4 miles.

7. Samraat 
Gotham was impressive; he does not back down from a fight.

8. Intense Holiday
Getting better ... closer with puncher's chance in Kentucky Derby.

9. General a Rod
A quality 3-year-old who could be tough in Florida Derby.

10. Bayern
If he runs how I expect him to Saturday in San Felipe, look out!

Four on the bubble: Shared Belief, Constitution, California Chrome, Rise Up