Road to the Breeders’ Cup: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down

Runhappy turned in one of the most dominant performances of the weekend with a runaway victory in the NYRA.com King's Bishop Stakes on Saturday at Saratoga Race Course. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
A capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Road to the Breeders’ Cup World Championships and three horses whose Breeders’ Cup chances are not quite as strong as they were a week or two ago.
Many regular readers probably checked this week’s blog, expecting to see American Pharoah listed among the horses cooling down. He’s not, nor should he be. Sure, American Pharoah lost, but it was his seventh race since March 10 at his sixth different racetrack. That's a ton of travel. He battled gamely in the stretch and re-rallied to put away Frosted before succumbing to Keen Ice late. As long as the Breeders’ Cup Classic remains the target, American Pharoah remains the favorite. He’s still the best and most consistent horse in training in the U.S. The 110 Equibase Speed Figure he earned was right in line with the 112 he earned for the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and 111 he recorded in winning the Belmont Stakes and Haskell Invitational Stakes. 
Heating Up

1. Runhappy     

Eclipse Sportswire 

Talk about a breakout performance! Runhappy led from start to finish in the Grade 1 NYRA.com King’s Bishop Stakes on the Travers Stakes undercard and stormed to a four-length runaway in a stakes-record time of 1:20.54 for seven furlongs. Runhappy’s only previous stakes attempt was a dud in his second career start when he was dropped into deep water in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes off a debut win at Turfway Park. Other than that race, for which he was not ready, he’s 4-for-4. In his two starts after the Lecomte, Runhappy posted back-to-back 108 Equibase Speed Figures. He jumped all the way to a 121 for the King’s Bishop. My biggest concern is that he could potentially regress off of a career-best performance, but with sufficient rest I think he is extremely dangerous for the Twinspires.com Breeders’ Cup Sprint and perhaps even a threat in the Las Vegas Dirt Mile. His sire is 2010 Kentucky Derby victor Super Saver, so an extra eighth of a mile should be within range. As for the Sprint, he's right up there with the fastest sprinters of the division.

2. Keen Ice     

Eclipse Sportswire 

I must admit, I’m not a charter member of the Keen Ice fan club, which is strange because I’m a big fan of his owner, Donegal Racing, and an admirer of his sire, Curlin. Although he has run very well, I think the reason I’ve been lukewarm on Keen Ice is because until he defeated Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes he had only visited the winner’s circle once. Over the years, I’ve been fooled so many times by the horses who consistently clunk up for second or third that I needed to see an effort like the Travers to believe Keen Ice had it in him. The Travers was the fifth race in a row that Keen Ice improved upon his Equibase Speed Figure and he established a new career top of 111. He’s a 3-year-old who is still getting better, he can run all day and he just took down a Triple Crown winner. I think it will be tougher to close in the Breeders’ Cup Classic on a main track at Keeneland Race Course that seems to favor horses with high cruising speed, but he should have plenty of pace in the race and Keen Ice is very good right now.

3. Dacita    

Eclipse Sportswire

Dacita in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa Stakes was my top play on Saturday, but after all of my tickets went up in flames in the Travers and all hell broke loose in the office with American Pharoah's defeat, I missed betting and watching the race in real time. I went back and watched the replay at about 9 p.m. that night and spent the next 24 hours looking like crazy Preakness guy (see photo just below the heating up horses, he is in the background). Missed opportunities. A three-time Group 1 winner in her native Chile, Dacita showed she can compete at elite levels in the U.S. by delivering a visually stunning closing kick to inhale seven opponents in the stretch. She won a Group 1 at 1 ¼ miles in Chile and finished fourth against males at 1 ½ miles in the Clasico El Ensayo. She should be able to handle the 1 3/16-mile Filly and Mare Turf distance with no problem, and I think the filly she defeated by a head in the Ballston Spa, Tepin, is extremely gifted. Trained by Chad Brown, Dacita is in the hands of a five-time Breeders’ Cup-winning trainer.

Honorable Mentions

I don’t like to do this — it feels like hedging — but there were some great performances last weekend that warrant at least a mention. Flintshire, runner-up in the 2014 Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf, crushed the field in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer Invitational Stakes and has now earned 131 (you read that right) Equibase Speed Figures in his two starts in the U.S. He’s targeting the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in France next, but if he comes back to the U.S. for the Turf, he’s the favorite. Sheer Drama paired a win in the Grade 1 Delaware Handicap with a victory on Saturday in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes. It’s time we start taking her very seriously as a contender for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff, especially considering there could be a big opening should Beholder’s connections opt to try her in the Classic. I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from Unbridled Forever in 2015 while cutting back in distance. She figures to be a tough, late-closing sprinter who could capitalize on a hot pace in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. Private Zone was phenomenal in the Grade 1 Forego Stakes, but he’s always outstanding with five wins, two seconds and two thirds in his last nine races on dirt, all in graded stakes. With his speed, Private Zone could run them off their feet in the TwinSpires.com Sprint. We also found out this week that elite European runner Gleneagles will be pointed to the Breeders' Cup Classic. He's crossed the finish line first in his last eight starts (he lost one via disqualification), he has four Group 1 wins and Gleneagles has the speed to compete with the best horses in the U.S.

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Cooling Down

1. Texas Red

Eclipse Sportswire

This one was really difficult. I’m a huge fan of Texas Red but his Travers was an unexpected flop. After posting two wins and two seconds in his previous four races, all in graded stakes, Texas Red finished fifth, beaten by 13 ¾ lengths in the Travers and never really made any impression in the race. He looked like a 3-year-old really beginning to come into his own this summer, earning a new career-best Equibase Speed Figure of 107 for finishing second in the Grade 3 Dwyer Stakes before bettering that with a 112 when winning the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes. He plummeted 17 points in the Travers in what was his first unplaced finish in more than a year. The Travers was Texas Red’s first attempt at 1 ¼ miles, so perhaps the distance was just a little longer than his best. I still believe this is a very good racehorse, but Texas Red’s stock took a significant hit on Travers day.

2. Dame Dorothy   

Eclipse Sportswire 

Dame Dorothy was 3-for-3 at seven furlongs entering the Grade 1 Ballerina with the three best Equibase Speed Figures of her career, including a dazzling career-top of 110 for her win in the Grade 3 Bed o’ Roses Handicap in her previous start on June 20. Dame Dorothy had never finished out of the top three in nine previous races. Fast and consistent, she looked like a worthy favorite (7-to-5), which makes her lackluster sixth-place finish at her best distance so surprising. She seemed like she couldn’t keep up with a fast but not blazing early pace and never fired. Horses are not machines and almost all of them toss in a clunker every now and again. I still believe Dame Dorothy is a very gifted filly, but it’s fair to wonder if she’s headed the wrong way with just a couple of months between her worst career performance and the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint.

3. Stopchargingmaria 

Eclipse Sportswire

Stopchargingmaria had amassed five wins and two seconds in her previous seven races entering the Grade 1 Personal Ensign, including three wins in as many starts at Saratoga Race Course. Racing on her favorite surface at what appeared to be her best distance (1 1/8 miles), Stopchargingmaria broke out of the Personal Ensign starting gate as the 3-to-2 favorite. After setting the early pace, Stopchargingmaria faded in deep stretch to finish fourth, beaten by 3 ¼ lengths. The disappointing effort followed a career-best 114 Equibase Speed Figure earned when winning the Grade 3 Shuvee Handicap four weeks earlier at Saratoga. Her 102 figure for the Personal Ensign was a significant regression that indicates she might have bounced (basically a dud that follows a taxing effort). If that’s the case, she certainly could rebound in her next race with sufficient rest. But if the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff is the target, a dull performance two months out makes reaching that race in peak condition much, much more difficult. 

Others of Note

Tamarkuz turned in a second-straight unplaced finish after coming to the U.S. with a dull sixth as the 3.65-to-1 third betting choice in the Grade 1 Priority One Jets Forego Stakes. For a horse who flashed early speed when winning four straight in Dubai earlier this year, including the Group 2 Godolphin Mile, it looks like Tamarkuz just doesn’t have the cruising speed of some of the faster American milers. Competitive Edge finished eighth as the 9-to-2 third choice in the NYRA.com King’s Bishop Stakes. His third unplaced finish in a row following a brilliant spring tempers my optimism. 

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Racing Terms
Allowance race – A race for which the racing secretary drafts certain conditions to determine weights to be carried based on the horse’s age, sex and/or past performance.
Also-eligible – A horse officially entered for a race, but not permitted to start unless the field is reduced by scratches below a specified number.
Apprentice – A rider who has not ridden a certain number of winners within a specified period of time. Also known as a “bug,” from the asterisk used to denote the weight allowance such riders receive.
Blinkers – A cup-shaped device that limits a horse’s vision. Blinkers, often used to try to improve a horse’s focus, come in a variety of sizes and shapes to allow as little or as much vision as the trainer feels is necessary.
Bullet – The fastest workout of the day at a track at a particular distance.
Claiming race – A race in which each horse entered is eligible to be purchased at a set price.
Closer – A horse that runs best in the latter part of the race, coming from off the pace.
Connections – Persons identified with a horse, such as owner, trainer, jockey and stable employees.
Disqualification – Change in order of finish by stewards for an infraction of the rules.
Dam – The mother of a horse.
Entry – Two or more horses with common ownership that are paired as a single betting unit in one race.
Front-runner – A horse whose running style is to attempt to get on or near the lead at the start of the race and to continue there as long as possible.
Furlong – An eighth of a mile.
Graded race – A non-restricted race with added money or guaranteed purse value of $100,000 or more which has been run at least twice under similar conditions and on the same surface and has been assigned graded status for the year contested by the American Graded Stakes Committee.
Handicap – This race type refers to a race where the weights are assigned by the track’s racing secretary or handicapper based upon past performances.
Length – A measurement approximating the length of a horse, used to denote distance between horses in a race.
Off track – A track that has a wet surface and isn’t labeled as “fast”.
Pacesetter – The horse that is running in front (on the lead).
Past performances – A horse’s racing record, earnings, bloodlines and other data, presented in composite form.
Prep – A workout (or race) used to prepare a horse for a future engagement.
Post Parade – Horses going from paddock to starting gate past the stands. The post parade provides spectators with a chance to get a final look at the horse before the race.
Post Position – Position of stall in starting gate from which a horse begins a race.
Rabbit – A speed horse running as an entry with another, usually a come-from-behind horse. The rabbit is expected to set a fast pace to help the chances of its stablemate.
Rank – A horse that refuses to settle under a jockey’s handling in a race, running in a headstrong manner without respect to pace.
Scratch – To be taken out of a race before it starts.
Silks – Jacket and cap worn by jockeys.
Sire – Father of a foal.
Stakes – A race for which the owner usually must pay a fee to run a horse. The fees can be for nominating, maintaining eligibility, entering and starting, to which the track adds more money to make up the total purse. Some stakes races are by invitation and require no payment or fee.