Your Pigskins and Ponies Picks for Sept. 3-5

Welcome to ABR’s Pigskins and Ponies column, where winners play!
Horse racing is my means to an end, and I love the sport like no other, but I admit it, like most of you, on a Sunday afternoon in the fall, it’s hard to pull me away from my couch … and NFL RedZone.
I have a wanted sign in Las Vegas and am feared by fantasy football mavens nationwide, but when it comes to the college game, I choose to punt.
That’s where Derek Cooley comes in. The dude is a loaded gun of university knowledge.
Let’s kick off the football, spring the horses from the gate and pad our bankrolls!
**Lines as of Wednesday Night from scoresandodds.com**
College Pigskins – by Derek Cooley
The time is finally upon us! 
Coming off a year in which the College Football Playoff saw so much success in its rookie season, this season promises to be even better.
The nation is chasing the defending champion and unanimous No. 1, the Ohio State Buckeyes. While the best team might belong to the Big 10, the top conference is shaping up to be the SEC … again. Alabama and Auburn return veteran clubs (but when don't they, really?), Tennessee might be experiencing a bit of a renaissance and the best player in the country is in the LSU backfield (Leonard Fournette).
The Big 12 and Pac 12 will be fun to watch as well, with both conferences being very top heavy. The Big 12 features TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma up top, with the Pac 12 countering with USC, Oregon, Arizona State and UCLA.
And don't sleep on the ACC! Georgia Tech and the Ramblin' Wreck will look to crash the conference party that Jameis Winston has finally left.  Keep a keen eye on one of the country's most exciting players as well: Clemson's DeShaun Watson.
OK, now the quick hits for this week's college football matchups! 
College Football Pick Nine – Week 1
Michigan +4.5 @ Utah (Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET, FS-1)
The change for Michigan won't happen overnight, especially with Ohio State and Michigan State in the same division of the same conference. But tonight will be a bright spot, and Jim Harbaugh will make a tangible difference for these kids.
HARBAUGH'S WOLVERINES

Photo by WikiMedia Commons/Eric Upchurch
Minnesota +17 vs. #2 TCU (Thursday, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
TCU will win, but Jerry Kill will have his Gophers ready to go on this Thursday night. The game will be competitive for three quarters.
#5 Michigan State -17.5 @ Western Michigan (Friday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The Spartans (and their fans) only have to travel an hour from the Michigan State campus to put a beating on in-state directional school, Western Michigan. P.J. Fleck, head coach for the Broncos, is an up-and-coming prospect in the coaching world. Keep an eye on his progression.
#15 Arizona State +3 @ Texas A&M (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
This is a HUGE game for both teams to start the season. ASU will try to prove to the nation that they are for real, while A&M tries to crack that Top 25 with a week one victory at NRG Stadium in Houston. Texas A&M fans will be in form, but so will Sun Devils QB Mike Bercovici (who doesn't have a Taylor Kelly to compete with this year). Bercovici and D.J. Foster in the backfield is going to be huge in this Sun Devil "upset".
Texas +9 @ #11 Notre Dame (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC)
This game just has one of those vibes for me. Notre Dame looks good as they always do in the preseason polls, which never can really get the Irish right. If Tyrone Swoops plays for the Longhorns, he will keep it close. Notre Dame will help keep it close as well, and will probably win ... but the Longhorns cover. 
#3 Alabama -12 at #20 Wisconsin (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Paul Chryst will have a forgettable start to his Wisconsin coaching tenure in Dallas. Alabama's defense is way too good for Joel Stave and Wisconsin — just not enough this year for the Badgers to keep this close. ’Bama by 2 touchdowns. 
#1 Ohio State -13 @ Virginia Tech (Monday, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The pressure here is not on the unanimously top-ranked, defending champions. It's on the home Hokies. Virginia Tech was the only team to beat the Buckeyes last year, and now they must prove it wasn't a fluke. This time, Virginia Tech faces the added pressure of being at home in the prime viewing time of Labor Day night. No Joey Bosa, no problem. I love Ohio State in this matchup.
Pro Pigskins – by Joe Kristufek
At the start of any NFL season, hope springs eternal.
In order to succeed, teams need talent, high-level coaching and schemes, health and good fortune.
With kickoff a week away, one of my favorite pastimes is to dive into some season win total over/unders.
Season Win Totals
Indianapolis Colts OVER 10 ½
Andrew Luck is going to continue to get better and with the addition of Hall of Fame caliber players RB Frank Gore and WR Andre Johnson, his legion of weapons is SICK. The defense is average at best, but a couple of quality linebackers were added, and with a more-balanced offense, perhaps they’ll spend less time on the field.
IMPROVING LUCK

Photo by WikiMedia Commons/Mr.schultz
Minnesota Vikings OVER 7 ½
Even without a running game to support him, QB Teddy Bridgewater made a positive impact in his rookie season. A highly motivated RB Adrian Peterson returns and WR Mike Wallace is a nice addition. The Vikings are also blessed with a quality coaching staff on both sides of the ball and a ferocious defense.
Miami Dolphins OVER 9
Ryan Tannehill is a solid QB with some upside and, with TE Jordan Cameron and WR Devante Parker added to an offense already blessed with a workhorse RB in Lamar Miller and a rising WR star in Jarvis Landry, points shouldn’t be nearly as tough to come by. In a run-dominant division, the addition of superstar defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh is massive.
Baltimore Ravens OVER 9 ½
Offensive guru Marc Trestman gets his hands on QB Joe Flacco and an underachieving offense. The running game, defense and coaching staff are solid and the other three teams in the Ravens’ division – Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Cleveland – are candidates to do a moonwalk out of playoff contention, which makes their job easier.
St. Louis Rams OVER 8
With Sam Bradford injured the entirety of the past two seasons, the Rams have been left without a capable QB. Enter Nick Foles, who should bring some stability to the position. The defense, which already was one of the best in the league, got even better in the offseason.
Carolina Panthers UNDER 8 The Panthers are the definition of average. The loss of WR Kelvin Benjamin is crippling to an already challenged offense, and outside of superstar LB Luke Kuechty, the defense may be overrated. They’re lacking playmakers and age is not on their side.
Cleveland Browns UNDER 6 ½
With career backup Josh McCown as the starting QB plus RB and WR cores that are bordering on anonymous, I’m curious how the Browns expect to put points on the board. The defense is better than average, but their schedule is absolutely brutal.
Dallas Cowboys UNDER 9 ½
Let’s face it, the Cowboys defense overachieved last season and the loss of RB DeMarco Murray is a huge hit to the offense. Remember, improved ball control is the reason the Cowboys succeeded on that side of the ball.
MURRAY FLEW THE COOP FOR EAGLES-GREEN PASTURES

Photo by WikiMedia Commons/J-Ham2000
Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 8 ½
QB Andy Dalton is as bad as advertised, and statistically the Bengals didn’t deserve their 10-5-1 record from last season. The defense is solid, yet far from dynamic. They don’t generate enough sacks or turnovers. The running game is good, but it won’t continue to mask the negativity under center.
Buffalo Bills UNDER 8 ½
Questions remain at QB, I’m not sold on Lesean McCoy as a cold-weather RB and, with New England and Miami at the top and the Jets potentially improved, the Bills division is salty.
San Francisco 49ers UNDER 6 ½
Is there a team in more disarray? RB Frank Gore and WR Michael Crabtree are gone as is half the defense, the coaching staff took a turn for the worse, QB Colin Kaepernick is Colin Kaepernick, and the other three teams in their division – Seattle, Arizona and St. Louis – are all playoff quality.
Ponies – by Joe Kristufek
In the horse racing industry, Labor Day means people like me work overtime. The weekend signals the close of Saratoga Race Course and the opening of Kentucky Downs, and both tracks will offer amazing investment opportunities on Saturday.
Saturday, Sept. 5
Kentucky Downs – Franklin, Ky.
Race 7 – Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies
#12 Lilly’s Dream (6-to-1, morning line) – Bet down to 2.30-to-1 against 11 opponents in her career debut at Ellis Park, this turf-bred daughter of War Chant did not disappoint, stalking and pouncing her way to victory in that one-mile contest. Today’s trip should hit her right between the eyes and, with an honest pace to kick at, she could prove tough to deny at a square price.
Saratoga Race Course – Saratoga Springs, N.Y.
Race 9 – Spinaway Stakes (G1)
#1 Tap to It (7-to-2, morning line)
Bet down to odds of 2.65-to-1 against nine opponents in her career debut, this 2-year-old daughter of Tapit overcame adversity to score a visually impressive win. The presence of Rachel’s Valentina (daughter of the legendary Rachel Alexandra) should help inflate our price.
Race 10 – Woodward Stakes (G1)
#2 Liam’s Map (6-to-5, morning line)
The winner of four straight going into the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes, this big, gray 4-year-old son of Unbridled’s Song legitimized himself by finishing second behind Honor Code, one of the top older horses in the country. After setting a pressured pace, a case could be made that he ran the best race of all that day. Off that performance, he looms as the one to beat here.
HONOR CODE OVERHAULED LIAM'S MAP LATE IN WHITNEY

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
For an in-depth look at the Woodward, check out this week's edition of “2 Guys and a Classic” on ABR with Bram Weinstein and me!