Further Ado Reclaims Top Spot in Derby Dozen

1. Further Ado 

Owner/Trainer: Spendthrift Farm/Brad Cox

Gun Runner  —Sky Dreamer , by Sky Mesa

Breeder: John C. Oxley (KY)

Further Ado, briefly No. 1 in this space earlier this winter before slipping to eighth after a disappointing comeback runner-up finish in the March 7 Tampa Bay Derby (G3), reclaims the top spot in the Derby Dozen after a resounding 11-length victory in the April 4 Blue Grass Stakes (G1). Now 2-for-2 at Keeneland with an average winning margin there of 15 1/2 lengths, he has prompted some to consider him a Keeneland specialist who regresses a few lengths elsewhere. That conclusion feels premature. He has lost just once around two turns and was victorious last fall at Churchill Downs, home of the Kentucky Derby (G1), in capturing the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2).

2. Renegade 

Owner/Trainer: Repole Stable and Robert and Lawana Low/Todd Pletcher

Into Mischief  —Spice Is Nice , by Curlin  

Breeder: Robert and Lawana Low (KY)

This year's Arkansas Derby (G1) and Sam F. Davis Stakes winner closed as the 4-1 favorite in the final Kentucky Derby Future Wager that wrapped up Saturday, hours before the day's major preps unfolded. Horses such as Further Ado likely would have drawn more support had bettors seen the Blue Grass first, but the broader point remains: Renegade enters the Derby with significant backing. He also leads the National Thoroughbred Racing Association's Top 3-Year-Old Poll.

WATCH: King Recaps Blue Grass, Santa Anita Derby, Wood

3. Commandment 

Owner/Trainer: Wathnan Racing/Brad Cox

Into Mischief—Sippican Harbor , by Orb 

Breeder: Lee Pokoik (KY)

Bunched finishes often produce modest speed figures, but the Florida Derby (G1) defied that tendency. Despite the top three finishing within a half-length and just 3 1/4 lengths covering the first four runners, Commandment earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure, second-highest behind Further Ado's 106 Blue Grass Beyer Speed Figure among 3-year-olds. His 97 Equibase Speed Figure and final time of 1:49.99 were less striking. Regardless, his determined nose victory over The Puma  stamped him as a colt of resolve as much as ability.

4. Chief Wallabee 

Owner/Trainer: Michael and Katherine Ball/Bill Mott

Constitution  —A La Lucie , by Medaglia d'Oro 

Breeder: Mike Ball and Katherine Ball (KY)

Michael and Katherine Ball and Mira Ball's Donamire Farm have enjoyed a productive run with their homebreds over the past 12 months or so. Chief Wallabee could carry them to the Derby, adding to stakes wins from other stable runners such as Trouble Calling , Troubleshooting , and Big Trouble . Chief Wallabee has yet to notch more than a maiden victory in three starts, but his second in the Feb. 28 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and third in the March 28 Florida Derby are reflective of his high quality.

5. The Puma 

Owner/Trainer: OGMA Investments, JR Ranch, and High Step Racing/Gustavo Delgado

Essential Quality  —Eve of War , by Declaration of War 

Breeder: Hidden Brook Farm and Brian Kahn (KY)

The Florida Derby runner-up owns just one win from four starts, earned as a maiden in the March 7 Tampa Bay Derby (G3), but few have faced tougher company than The Puma. In each outing, he has squared off with Renegade, Further Ado, or Commandment. Troubled starts and wide trips have worked against him at times, though he still managed to defeat a returning Further Ado at Tampa Bay Downs. A slow start in the Kentucky Derby could be problematic, given how easy it is for a horse to get shuffled back in a scramble for early position.

6. Silent Tactic 

Owner/Trainer: John C. Oxley/Mark Casse

Tacitus  —Magical Sign , by Gun Runner

Breeder: Don Alberto Corporation (KY)

Trainer Mark Casse has a Preakness Stakes (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1) win on his résumé, but he's still gunning for his first Kentucky Derby. None of his 11 starters have recorded a top-three finish, though Classic Empire  (fourth in 2017) and War of Will   (seventh in 2019) ran competitively in the Derby with highly unlucky trips. Silent Tactic doesn't have the flash of some of those ahead of him in these rankings, but he's honest, having been first or second in all six of his starts. His strongest finish came in winning the Southwest Stakes (G3). He didn't finish with the same authority when second in both the Rebel Stakes (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1), admittedly against tougher opposition.

7. Emerging Market  

Owner/Trainer: Klaravich Stables/Chad Brown

Candy Ride  —Wild Empress , by Empire Maker

Breeder: Stoneriggs Farm (KY)

No horse in modern times has captured the Derby with just two prior starts, though Leonatus accomplished the feat in 1883. Only six have tried since, according to Churchill Downs publicity records, with the Japanese horse T O Password  being the last to attempt it in 2024. Four 3-year-olds, most recently Mage   (2023), have won the Derby after three prior starts. Emerging Market will try to defy the two-start trend after winning the Louisiana Derby (G2) in his second outing, following a debut victory in a route at Tampa. Experience is the question, but his talent is evident.

8. Potente 

Owner/Trainer: Speedway Stables/Bob Baffert

Into Mischief—Sweet Sting , by Awesome Again

Breeder: Pam and Martin Wygod (KY)

Potente incurred his first defeat when second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), but the effort retained merit. He set a contested pace before yielding late, finishing 2 3/4 lengths behind So Happy . That early duel may have dulled his finish, and a more measured approach—similar to his San Felipe Stakes (G2) victory—could prove beneficial. He represents trainer Bob Baffert's lone Derby starter as he seeks a record seventh win.

9. So Happy 

Owner/Trainer: Norman Stables and Saints or Sinners/Mark Glatt

Runhappy —So Cunning , by Blame

Breeder: Leverett S. Miller (KY)

Mike Smith delivered a measured, Hall of Fame ride in the Santa Anita Derby, guiding So Happy into a comfortable stalking trip while rivals contested the early lead. The colt responded with a more sustained finish than he showed when third in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) a month earlier. The favorable trip, however, compared to the contested trip factors into his placement just behind the runner-up in these rankings.

10. Pavlovian  

Owner/Trainer: Reddam Racing/Doug O'Neill

Pavel  —Mandy's Grace , by Bellamy Road

Breeder: Reddam Racing (CA)

The March 21 Louisiana Derby was a taxing race. He and Emerging Market threw down over the length of the stretch, so the extra time off for recovery should be to his benefit. A start earlier, he also had to battle to defeat favored Express Kid in a head-bobbing photo in the Feb. 15 Sunland Derby. Owner Paul Reddam of Reddam Racing and trainer Doug O'Neill, coming off the Santa Anita Park training title at its recently completed meet, each bid for a third Kentucky Derby victory after success with I'll Have Another (2012) and Nyquist   (2016). 

11. Albus 

Owner/Trainer: Pin Oak Stud/Riley Mott

Yaupon  —Adream , by Bernardini

Breeder: Susan Casner (KY)

Emerging Market is not the only horse to step up from a maiden win at Tampa to win a graded stakes. This colt followed suit in capturing Saturday's Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct Racetrack. Well handled by Jaime Torres, who allowed his mount to drop back to eighth as Napoleon Solo  set a demanding pace while chased by Talk to Me Jimmy , Albus saved ground on the second turn and found a stretch opening on his way to a 1 1/4-length victory. The race fell apart late—the top-three finishers all came from the rear half of the pack—but there is no doubt this is a progressive colt who has made strides this year at 3.

12. Incredibolt 

Owner/Trainer: Pin Oak Stud/Riley Mott

Bolt d'Oro  —Sapphire Spitfire , by Awesome Again

Breeder: Deann Baer & Greg Baer DVM (KY)

Pin Oak and Riley Mott have another horse in this space in Incredibolt who, like Albus, was well spotted in the March 14 Virginia Derby, a one-turn 1 1/8-mile race he took by 4 lengths at Colonial Downs. That performance marked a clear rebound from a sixth in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) in late January at Gulfstream Park. Like Further Ado, he owns a graded win over the Churchill Downs surface, having taken the Street Sense Stakes (G3) there last season.