Bram’s Take: Beware the Closers in Woodward

Photo of fans handicapping at Saratoga Race Course by Eclipse Sportswire
Ooh my Lord, he lost! Aaaaahhhhhhhhhhh.
Everyone settle down. It was only a matter of time before American Pharoah lost a race. Anyone who follows the sport knows that. And as for this immediate reaction that he “has to be retired now” or “he just didn’t fire the way he used to,” give it a rest.
American Pharoah nearly went wire to wire in a 1 ¼-mile race. Do you know how rare that is if the field is actually competitive? He was caught right at the very end, so it's not like he was eased at the quarter pole or pulled a California Chrome and appeared to have completely jumped the racing shark. Clearly, he’s still great and it took the best race of Keen Ice’s emerging career to pull this off.
So with that said, I’m glad American Pharoah will go to Keenland for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. It’s rare enough that we have a Triple Crown winner. It’s the rarest of rare that the connections will let him give it one final go before his breeding rights head off to the farm.
What last week did show was that Saratoga Race Course plays no favorites, which is exactly how I see this weekend’s Woodward Stakes showdown playing out. No one in that field should be 6-to-5. No one.
1. Wicked Strong — They are giving Luis Saez a second try here, and he deserves it after he was solid, if not spectacular, in his last start. But Liam’s Map blasted off, and this guy doesn't have the win, if it’s a blistering pace, in him. I see the game plan being the same here, which means he'll be a good choice to hit the board. But win? I doubt it.
2. Liam’s Map — So, he stepped up in class and stepped up his game. If he runs like he did in his last race, I doubt anyone catches him this time. But that is the ultimate betting trap. Just because he ran the race of his life last time out does not mean he will do it again. Let’s say he’s 90 percent as good as last time, is that 90 percent still good enough to win? Nope.
HONOR CODE (left) AND LIAM'S MAP IN WHITNEY

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
3. Commanding Curve — Got a soft spot in my heart for this guy, thanks to him helping me cash in at the 2014 Kentucky Derby. But, he hasn't been close since, which means that hunch I had some 16 months ago … it’s long gone. Thanks, friend; enjoy the view of the real contenders.
4. Bay of Plenty — Here is our wild card. What I dislike most is the fact that the last time he was in a race of this magnitude, the public called him a deep longshot and he was a dud. Rarely do I look at what the public thinks and make a determination off of that, but it was striking. Everything leading up said he might have a shot, but no one bet that and they were right. Couple that with a penchant to go right to the front, and he’s the candidate to fade badly in the stretch thanks to Liam’s Map commanding a hot pace.
5. Mylute — He wants Liam’s Map and Bay of Plenty to charge out and burn each other out because, truthfully, that’s the only shot he has here. He’ll be lurking, but the questions will be: how far back is he when he tries to make the move and will that give him enough time to get there in the end? I say no.
6. Coach Inge — Johnny V won two in a row on him before he was caught in the stretch of his last start without Velazquez on his back. His last two races were also longer than this one, so you do have to wonder if we are seeing this one line up in his sweet spot. Somehow, I doubt he’s going to try to run with the pacesetters. If he is patient and times it right, he might steal this thing.
7. Effinex — Coffee is for closers. This guy is a closer. He’s won 3 of his last 4 overall. How Liam’s Map is 6-to-5 and he is 4-to-1 is a ghastly miscalculation in my opinion. He could be listed as the favorite of you ask me (although no one did). Now, he needs to be close enough to the front to time the move right, but what he has that Mylute doesn’t is the second gear that gets him there. Me like.
EFFINEX (right) HOLDS OFF TONALIST IN SUBURBAN

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
8. Protonico — This is his first race with jockey Jose Ortiz, which is something I never like in spots like this. But clearly he is dangerous, and he certainly is a strong value pick at 12-to-1 or better. His split times don’t suggest he’s a wolf in sheep’s clothing, so I don't really know if he’s got the game to pull it off. But he’s worth watching very closely.
I’m assuming Liam’s Map and Bay of Plenty roar out and open up an advantage on the others. If anyone else dares join them, they’ll have nothing left for the stretch. I think Bay of Plenty gets eaten up by the pace, and because of a gap of a couple of lengths coming to the far turn I don't think traffic plays any role here. So, I love Effinex to catch both of them and win. If Liam’s Map falls off the board — a possibility if he doesn't run like he did a month ago — then the payout is nice!
The pick: Effinex
The Full Milty: trifecta key — Effinex over Wicked Strong, Liam’s Map, Bay of Plenty, Coach Inge, and Protonico.
$600,000 Woodward StakesSaturday, Saratoga Race Course, Race 10, 5:47 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles on the dirt for 3-year-olds and older

PP

Horse 

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

ML Odds

1

Wicked Strong

Luis Saez

Jimmy Jerkens

Centennial Farms

5-1

2

Liam's Map

Javier Castellano

Todd Pletcher

Teresa Viola Racing Stables

6-5

3

Commanding Curve

Shaun Bridgmohan

Dallas Stewart

West Point Thoroughbreds

30-1

4

Bay of Plenty

Joel Rosario

Kiaran McLaughlin

Godolphin Racing

10-1

5

Mylute

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Todd Pletcher

GoldMark Farm and Whisper Hill Farm

15-1

6

Coach Inge

John Velazquez

Todd Pletcher

Repole Stable

6-1

7

Effinex

Junior Alvarado

Jimmy Jerkens

Tri-Bone Stables

4-1

8

Protonico

Jose Ortiz

Todd Pletcher

Sumaya U.S. Stable

12-1