Aiming for nice Tampa Bay Derby score on $20 Budget

Vinceremos, above winning at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 4, enters the Tampa Bay Derby off a win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes on Feb. 1. (Photo by Bob Coglianese/Gulfstream Park)
We have all-but arrived at the midway point of Kentucky Derby prep season and the Tampa Bay Derby has featured many a memorable race in recent years. Last year, it was highly regarded Verrazano who drew off emphatically to affirm his status as a leading Kentucky Derby contender.
While many Tampa Bay Derby runners have gone on to race on the first Saturday in May, only Street Sense (2007) has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby after taking the featured race of the Tampa Bay Downs meet.
This year, the Tampa Bay Derby hasn’t necessarily attracted many horses considered top Kentucky Derby contenders but instead features several B-listers. Despite his impressive win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes on this track, Vinceremos hasn’t cracked many top 10 Derby contender lists (aside from mine, I have him listed #1 at the moment). In fact, he’s not even listed as the morning-line favorite in this race. There’s also Conquest Titan , a horse who has run well in company with several horses considered prime Derby contenders. Yet, he too remains on the periphery of the Kentucky Derby landscape.
So, how do we make money on this race? Our mission, which we’ve already accepted in this blog space over the past month, is to try to land a Benjamin (a crisp $100 bill, or more) while limiting our investment to $20. In order to do that, we’ll formulate three betting strategies involving our top two choices, the aforementioned Vinceremos and Conquest Titan, along with several longshots who have a good chance to factor in the exotics (exactas and trifectas). So, let’s break down the field.
THE FAVORITES
#2 Surfing U S A – This highly regarded colt was passed late in his first try going two turns in his most recent start. But if you watch that replay, it was a really strong race for him. Surfing U S A faced steady pace pressure throughout while setting pretty respectable fractions. Yes, he was passed in the stretch but he was only passed by one horse and that horse is top Derby contender Top Billing. I think he’ll be a lot better for that last effort and stands out as the probable main speed here. He could take them all the way around but he should expect to face more token pressure up front from several horses. A red flag is that jockey Javier Castellano jumps off Surfing U S A to ride #8 Cousin Stephen. That said, Castellano jumped off Wildcat Red in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and then finished second to him while aboard General a Rod.
#5 Conquest Titan - This horse is a big-time threat. Conquest Titan closed wide on a speed-favoring track at Gulfstream Park to finish second to leading Derby contender Cairo Prince. He also out-gamed Intense Holiday, a horse who came back to win to the Risen Star Stakes on Feb. 22. If you go two races back, he comfortably defeated Fountain of Youth Stakes runner-up, General a Rod. While race/pace dynamics prove time and time again to be more telling in determining individual race outcomes, there’s no doubt that Conquest Titan has been flattered by the company he’s kept. Expect him to be flying late, especially if the pace up front is as hot as anticipated.
CONQUEST TITAN WINNING AT CHURCHILL IN NOVEMBER

Photo by Reed Palmer/Churchill Downs
#6 Vinceremos - Before his win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes for trainer Todd Pletcher, I wrote the following of Vinceremos on my ABR blog: “... comes out of a nice maiden-breaking score in which he did encounter plenty of trouble. Resilience is a key trait to look for in these developing 3-year-olds, and I think it’s a good sign that he showed some ability to overcome adversity in that last race.” The horse did nothing but affirm that theory in the Sam Davis. He’s still visibly green and only seems to run when he wants to run. In the Sam Davis, he was headed (passed on the outside) a half-mile into the race and appeared to be fading from the scene when, in an extreme display of resiliency, he rallied back to take the lead and then held off several horses late. If you’re looking for a knock on him, the final fractions were nothing to write home about and the runner-up, Harpoon, looked outclassed in the Gotham last weekend. That said, this horse showed the kind of tenacity and competitive edge you don’t always see with these young horses. Unlike my Sam Davis preview, I will choose Vinceremos as my top selection in the Tampa Bay Derby.
VINCEREMOS WINNING SAM F. DAVIS

Photo by SV Photography
THE SLEEPERS
#1 Ring Weekend - Son of red-hot sire Tapit, this one was in hand when he easily cruised by the pacesetters in his most recent start and held on late. He covered an enormous amount of distance, traveling wide throughout in that one, and presumably will save a lot more ground breaking from the one hole here. Big question is one of class and whether this horse is a late bloomer or simply in over his head in this spot. Respect the connections (trainer Graham Motion won this race in 2002) and the local jockey (Daniel Centeno won the Tampa Bay Derby in 2009 aboard Musket Man), but this still looks like a tough task. Will use in the back end of the exotics.
#8 Cousin Stephen - It’s a good sign that Javier Castellano comes back after being off this horse in the Sam Davis. He’s another one who showed heart in that race and with a more patient, stalking trip, he might’ve been able to get home in front. Castellano scores 30% of the time when riding for Chad Brown, too. Not impossible that he turns the tables on Vinceremos here, and you’ll also get a fatter price, assuming he isn’t bet down strictly on the basis of Castellano reclaiming the mount.
#9 Hy Kodiak Warrior - Really intrigued by this horse but he’ll have to take a step forward to make an impact here. His company lines indicate he belongs with these despite coming up a bit short in his last few. He switches barns, going out for a trainer who hits at a nice 25% first out. He’s also getting Lasix (furosemide) for the first time, which should lead to improvement as well. His late-closing running style could be a blessing or a curse. It should serve him well if the pace is hot, but he’ll probably have to swing wide in passing horses late, which isn’t always easy to do at Tampa Bay Downs.
THE PRETENDERS
#3 Matador – The trainer-owner tandem of Mark Casse and John Oxley won this race two years ago with a horse named Prospective. With respect to that fact, I still have mixed feelings about Matador. He raced way off the pace in the Sam Davis (a contested but slow pace) and did manage to rally into contention late. He was taken out wide turning for home and, while he appeared to lose some ground, he also seemed to already be tiring at that stage. He has won at this 1 1/16-mile distance - by a nose on the turf – but I’m just not sure he wants this much ground to cover on the dirt. You can almost envision him rallying and then flattening out again.
#4 Coltimus Prime - Woodbine shipper has shown some speed in his tries on synthetic surfaces and he broke his maiden leading from start to finish. However, he didn’t face any pace pressure in that one and it’s hard to envision him keeping up with Surfing U S A in his first try on a dirt main track.
#7 East Hall - This horse has already been raced an eye-popping 11 times in his young career. He’s generally competitive but he’s also 0-for-3 at this 1 1/16-mile distance. East Hall is a logical horse to pass on.
#10 Tuscan Getaway - This horse has some speed from the gate but the wide post won’t do him any favors. He’s unproven past 5 furlongs on dirt main tracks and he’s consistently tired whenever he’s faced pace pressure and hasn’t inherited a comfortable lead. Have to toss him here.
HOW TO BET THE RACE
Strategy A
$20 Win on 6 (If his post time odds are close to 4-1, which is possible, otherwise defer to strategies B and C)
Strategy B
$10 Exacta Box 5,6 ($20 total) 
Strategy C
$1 Trifecta 5,6/2,5,6/1,2,5,6,8,9 ($16)
$1 Exacta  1,2,8,9/6 ($4)
$350,000 Tampa Bay Derby
Saturday, Tampa Bay Downs, Race 11, 5:25 P.M. E.T.
1 1/16 miles, 3-year-olds

PP

Horse

Jockey

Weight

Trainer

1

Ring Weekend 

Daniel Centeno

116

Graham Motion

2

Surfing U S A 

Jose Lezcano

116

Todd Pletcher

3

Matador 

Julien Leparoux

116

Mark Casse

4

Coltimus Prime

Gary Boulanger

116

Justin Nixon

5

Conquest Titan 

Shaun Bridgmohan

116

Mark Casse

6

Vinceremos 

Edgar Prado

120

Todd Pletcher

7

East Hall 

Juan Leyva

116

William Kaplan

8

Cousin Stephen

Javier Castellano

116

Chad Brown

9

Hy Kodiak Warrior

Gabriel Saez

116

Marcial Navarro

10

Tuscan Getaway

Joe Rocco Jr.

116

Ricky Griffith