2026 Kentucky Derby: 3 Live Longshots to Consider

With barely more than two weeks remaining until the 2026 Kentucky Derby (G1), the field is coming into focus, and bettors can start considering which longshots they may wish to include on their tickets.

At least one horse starting at 15-1 or higher has finished in the Kentucky Derby superfecta in 22 of the last 25 years. During the same timeframe, we've seen four of the five biggest upsets in Derby history with Rich Strike (80-1), Country House (65-1), Mine That Bird (50-1), and Giacomo (50-1) claiming first prize.

With this in mind, here are three longshots I believe can challenge for a top-four finish on the first Saturday in May:

Danon Bourbon

Three starts, three decisive victories. Japanese raider Danon Bourbon  has done nothing wrong in three starts and comes into the Kentucky Derby with a strong chance to outrun his odds.

Danon Bourbon has tactical speed, but he also owns a strong finishing kick. He debuted over 1,800 meters (about 1 1/8 miles) at Kyoto last fall and led all the way to dominate by 10 lengths. He benefited from setting a slow pace (:24.0, :50.3, and 1:15.8 over a muddy track), but he clocked his final 600 meters (about three furlongs) in a blazing :36.1, a whopping 1.2 seconds faster than any of the other 15 entrants.

In his second start, Danon Bourbon tackled a 1,900-meter (about 1 3/16-mile) allowance at Kyoto. This time, he tracked the pace in third place before dashing his final 600 meters in :36.6--the fastest in the field by a full second--to triumph by five lengths.

Danon Bourbon qualified to the Kentucky Derby by winning the 1,800-meter Fukuryu S. at Nakayama. The early pace was the quickest Danon Bourbon has yet encountered--:23.4, :48.3, and 1:13.3--yet he still clocked his final 600 meters in a strong 37.3 (the fastest in the field) to draw off and score by 3 1/2 lengths in the stakes-record time of 1:50.9. Only one other Fukuryu winner has run faster than 1:51.9.

Keeping in mind how races in Japan have short run-up distances compared to many U.S. races, Danon Bourbon's Fukuryu performance looks excellent on the clock. You can subtract around one second from the pace fractions and final time to get a ballpark idea of how fast the race might have been with a typical U.S. run-up.

Danon Bourbon's strong finishing kick should serve him well down the long homestretch at Churchill Downs. I believe he's a serious racehorse with a shot to win the Kentucky Derby.

Golden Tempo

Did you know the Louisiana Derby (G2) has produced a top-four Kentucky Derby finisher in nine of the last 15 years? It's become commonplace for deep-closing Louisiana Derby alumni like Revolutionary, Golden Soul, Commanding Curve, Country House, O Besos, and Catching Freedom to come to Churchill Downs and rally from behind to snag a spot in the Kentucky Derby superfecta.

Sure, Louisiana Derby runners with tactical speed have also performed well in the Run for the Roses, but it's the deep closers who seem to thrive the most at Churchill Downs. This year, Golden Tempo  fits the bill.

Golden Tempo is a pure deep closer without any tactical speed. In his first two starts, he closed from out of the clouds to win a six-furlong maiden special weight and the 1 1/16-mile Lecomte (G3). Then he ran third in both the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star (G2) and 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby (G2).

In the Louisiana Derby, Golden Tempo wore blinkers for the first time and ran his best race to date. Though he dropped well off the pace as usual, he closed with interest down the homestretch, clocking his final three furlongs in a strong :37.19 to finish only one length behind the victorious Emerging Market.

As a son of Curlin out of the Bernardini mare Carrumba, Golden Tempo is bred to relish racing 1 1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby. If a hot pace unfolds on the first Saturday in May, Golden Tempo can close from out of the clouds to crash the superfecta at a big price.

Potente

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby a record-equaling six times. Perhaps he can snag a second win with Potente , a lightly raced colt with a promising record.

Potente has accomplished a lot in a short period of time. He led all the way to win his debut sprinting six furlongs at Santa Anita Park. Then he stretched out over 1 1/16 miles and stepped up in class to rally and win the San Felipe (G2) by a hard-fought head, with future Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner So Happy another 2 1/4 lengths behind in third place.

Potente failed to maintain his edge over So Happy in the Santa Anita Derby, finishing second by 2 3/4 lengths. But he didn't run a bad race by any means. Potente hooked up in an early speed duel with San Felipe runner-up Robusta, and the two were never more than a head apart through fractions of :23.03, :46.79, and 1:11.11. Robusta eventually gave way to finish last, but Potente stayed on well, pulling 6 3/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher.

Potente has improved his Beyer speed figure and Brisnet Speed rating with every start, and he may have upside for further improvement. Drawing post position two in the Santa Anita Derby arguably forced Potente to vie for the lead, so if he draws an outside post in the Kentucky Derby, I'm optimistic we'll see him return to the rating tactics he employed with success in the San Felipe. He won't want to drop too far behind, but rating a couple of lengths off the early pace could set up Potente for another career-best performance.

Now it's your turn! Which longshots do you like for the 2026 Kentucky Derby?

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