Road to the Breeders’ Cup: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down
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Rachel's Valentina (above) was one of several 2-year-olds who turned in exciting performances last weekend. Find out if she made the cut for this week's list of horses heating up on the Road to the Breeders' Cup. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
A capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Road to the Breeders’ Cup World Championships and three horses whose Breeders’ Cup chances are not quite as strong as they were a week or two ago. There was no shortage of quality performances from last weekend, so there are a few extra names in the heating up section ...
Heating Up
1. Fabulous FilliesRachel's Valentina
Eclipse Sportswire
Songbird
Eclipse Sportswire
There is arguably nothing more exciting in horse racing than a talented 2-year-old, especially when that juvenile (or juveniles in this case) has a pedigree that suggests there could be much more to come. On Sept. 5, we watched a pair of big-time 2-year-old fillies win Grade 1 stakes — one on the East Coast and one on the West Coast — and both could be just scratching the surface as far as ability. Rachel's Valentina won the seven-furlong Spinaway Stakes by a length over highly regarded Tap to It at Saratoga Race Course. Champion and 2006 Preakness winner Bernardini is her sire (father) and 2009 Horse of the Year and Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra is her dam (mother). With a standout pedigree, two wins in as many starts and a six-point jump to a 93 Equibase Speed Figure, there is much to be excited about with Rachel’s Valentina. At Del Mar later that day, Songbird dominated the opposition, which included Grade 2 Sorrento Stakes winner Pretty N Cool, in a 5 ¼-length runaway win in the Del Mar Debutante. She also improved to 2-for-2 with a 95 Equibase Speed Figure for her debut and a 96 for the Debutante. By Medaglia d’ Oro, runner-up in the 2002 Belmont Stakes and twice second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, out of Grade 2 winner Ivanavinalot, Songbird also boasts plenty of potential on the path to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies on Oct. 31 at Keeneland Race Course and the 2016 Kentucky Oaks. Of note, Songbird is not nominated to the Breeders’ Cup and would need to be supplemented to the race to compete in the Juvenile Fillies.
2. Liam's Map
Photo by NYRA
There was some doubt that Liam's Map could duplicate a huge (OK, monster) effort in a runner-up finish to Honor Code in the Whitney Handicap on Aug. 8 when he returned for the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes four weeks later at Saratoga. Although his speed figure dropped by six points from a eye-popping 126 in the Whitney to a 120 in the Woodward, Liam’s Map’s 4 ¾-length romp cemented his credentials as a huge threat for the Breeders’ Cup World Championships. Should trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Teresa Viola Racing Stables target the Las Vegas Dirt Mile, Liam’s Map would almost certainly be the favorite and very likely a heavy favorite. If they were to choose the $5-million Breeders’ Cup Classic, Liam’s Map would most likely be one of the top three or four betting choices, depending on the competition. He’s now won five of his last six starts with only a head separating him from victory in the Whitney, and the speed figures for his last five starts range from 114 to 126. This is a very fast racehorse and, if Pletcher opts to train him up to the Breeders’ Cup, he will be very fresh. If this front-runner runs the race he ran in either the Whitney or Woodward in the Breeders’ Cup, the others will have their work cut out for them trying to catch Liam’s Map at Keeneland.
3a. O’Neill/Reddam 2-year-olds
Nyquist (below) and Ralis
Eclipse Sportswire
Trainer Doug O’Neill and owner J. Paul Reddam launched a coordinated strike on the Grade 1 stakes for 2-year-olds on both coasts on Sept. 7. OK, it wasn’t really an attack or anything, but it did set the trainer/owner combo up very nicely for the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Of the two, I much prefer Del Mar Futurity winner Nyquist and I’m guessing I’m not alone. That is no knock on Hopeful Stakes winner Ralis, who is a very nice colt in his own right, but the hunch is that his connections shipped him east so he wouldn’t run into the buzzsaw (Nyquist) from his own barn in the Del Mar Futurity. Nyquist won by 3 ¾ lengths as the 1-to-2 favorite to improve to 3-for-3. He won the Grade 2 Best Pal Stakes in his previous start and has posted Equibase Speed Figures between 103 and 105 for each of his three races. He’s consistently fast. Ralis, who was stakes-placed at Del Mar, drew well clear in the Hopeful stretch to win by 5 ¾ lengths. He earned a career-best 103 speed figure in his first attempt at seven-eighths of a mile, after his first four races were 5 ½ furlongs or shorter. Speaking of the Breeders’ Cup, Nyquist is by brilliantly fast 2010 Juvenile winner Uncle Mo and Ralis is by 2008 Juvenile runner-up Square Eddie. That Nyquist-Ralis combo figures to be a heck of a 1-2 punch for this year’s Juvenile on Oct. 31 at Keeneland.
3b: Ironicus
Eclipse Sportswire
Coming into this year, Ironicus had one win to his credit in five starts and was not even a blip on the radar for the Breeders’ Cup. Six races and four wins later, the tide has quickly turned for Ironicus. His first four starts of 2015 featured three wins and one second with speed figures ranging from 101 to 107. Including among that string was a win in the Grade 2 Dixie Stakes on the Preakness undercard in his stakes debut. But it was the two most recent starts that really cemented Ironicus as a force to be reckoned with on the grass. He finished second by a neck to Grand Arch in the one-mile, Grade 2 Fourstardave Handicap and earned a career-best 122 Equibase Speed Figure. Ironicus followed with an off-the-pace victory in the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch Handicap (120 speed figure) on Sept. 7 that showed he was capable of producing back-to-back elite performances. Heck, he set a new turf course record for 1 1/16 miles with a blistering final time of 1:38.54, eclipsing the previous record set by Fourstardave in 1991. Ironicus is one of four graded stakes winners and five stakes winners overall produced by his dam (mother), Meghan’s Joy, by A.P. Indy, and comes from a very powerful family. Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey has taken his time with this 4-year-old, and the best could definitely be yet to come. Don’t overlook him as a legit threat in the Breeders’ Cup Mile; he’ll be flying late.
Cooling Down
1. Wicked Strong
Eclipse Sportswire
This one is tough because I was a believer in Wicked Strong, and really I still am. I believe he is a very nice racehorse capable of competing against the best dirt horses in the U.S. I just don’t think he can win one of those top races. In his last seven starts in Grade 1 races, Wicked Strong has a third in the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes on Sept. 5 and a runner-up finish in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes last summer with the other five attempts resulting in off-the-board finishes. He’s been right there at the finish line of a couple of graded stakes this year but is winless in six races in 2015. Wicked Strong clearly is very good, but I’m just not willing to put my money on him to win top races until I see him get over the hump. His only Grade 1 win to date came in the 2014 Twinspires.com Wood Memorial Stakes. That was 17 months ago and he has only one victory since that race.
2. Uncle Vinny
Eclipse Sportswire
I was not convinced by Uncle Vinny after his win via disqualification in the Grade 3 Sanford Stakes, and I thought the horse who crossed the finish line first in that race, Magna Light, was a better prospect. My hunch was validated when he finished a nonthreatening third, beaten by 8 ¾ lengths, in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes on Sept. 7 at Saratoga Race Course. He’s still a graded-stakes-winning 2-year-old with a bright future, but at this point he doesn’t feel like a strong contender for the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
3. Takeover Target
NYRA photo
Takeover Target delivered a breakthrough victory in the Grade 2 Hall of Fame Stakes on Aug. 7 at Saratoga Race Course that indicated he might be poised to live up to some serious social media hype. The 103 Equibase Speed Figure supported the theory that this was a colt headed in the right direction with three wins in five career starts at that point. Sent off as the 1.70-to-1 favorite in the Grade 3 Saranac Stakes on Sept. 5, Takeover Target finished sixth of eight, beaten by seven lengths. The regression was not as significant as it seemed at first as Takeover Target dropped from a 103 in the Hall of Fame Stakes to a 97 in the Saranac. But if he was to be considered a serious challenger for one of the Breeders’ Cup races, Takeover Target needed to take a step forward, not a step back. With only six races so far in his career, Takeover Target has a very bright future and he has a chance to be a very serious racehorse as a 4-year-old in 2016. He just doesn’t look Breeders’ Cup ready to me right now.
Racing Terms
Allowance race – A race for which the racing secretary drafts certain conditions to determine weights to be carried based on the horse’s age, sex and/or past performance.
Also-eligible – A horse officially entered for a race, but not permitted to start unless the field is reduced by scratches below a specified number.
Apprentice – A rider who has not ridden a certain number of winners within a specified period of time. Also known as a “bug,” from the asterisk used to denote the weight allowance such riders receive.
Blinkers – A cup-shaped device that limits a horse’s vision. Blinkers, often used to try to improve a horse’s focus, come in a variety of sizes and shapes to allow as little or as much vision as the trainer feels is necessary.
Bullet – The fastest workout of the day at a track at a particular distance.
Claiming race – A race in which each horse entered is eligible to be purchased at a set price.
Closer – A horse that runs best in the latter part of the race, coming from off the pace.
Connections – Persons identified with a horse, such as owner, trainer, jockey and stable employees.
Disqualification – Change in order of finish by stewards for an infraction of the rules.
Dam – The mother of a horse.
Entry – Two or more horses with common ownership that are paired as a single betting unit in one race.
Front-runner – A horse whose running style is to attempt to get on or near the lead at the start of the race and to continue there as long as possible.
Furlong – An eighth of a mile.
Graded race – A non-restricted race with added money or guaranteed purse value of $100,000 or more which has been run at least twice under similar conditions and on the same surface and has been assigned graded status for the year contested by the American Graded Stakes Committee.
Handicap – This race type refers to a race where the weights are assigned by the track’s racing secretary or handicapper based upon past performances.
Length – A measurement approximating the length of a horse, used to denote distance between horses in a race.
Off track – A track that has a wet surface and isn’t labeled as “fast”.
Pacesetter – The horse that is running in front (on the lead).
Past performances – A horse’s racing record, earnings, bloodlines and other data, presented in composite form.
Prep – A workout (or race) used to prepare a horse for a future engagement.
Post Parade – Horses going from paddock to starting gate past the stands. The post parade provides spectators with a chance to get a final look at the horse before the race.
Post Position – Position of stall in starting gate from which a horse begins a race.
Rabbit – A speed horse running as an entry with another, usually a come-from-behind horse. The rabbit is expected to set a fast pace to help the chances of its stablemate.
Rank – A horse that refuses to settle under a jockey’s handling in a race, running in a headstrong manner without respect to pace.
Scratch – To be taken out of a race before it starts.
Silks – Jacket and cap worn by jockeys.
Sire – Father of a foal.
Stakes – A race for which the owner usually must pay a fee to run a horse. The fees can be for nominating, maintaining eligibility, entering and starting, to which the track adds more money to make up the total purse. Some stakes races are by invitation and require no payment or fee.