Your Pigskins and Ponies Picks for Sept. 12-14

Welcome to ABR’s Pigskins and Ponies column, where winners play!
Horse racing is my means to an end, and I love the sport like no other, but I admit it, like most of you, on a Sunday afternoon in the fall, it’s hard to pull me away from my couch … and NFL RedZone.
I have a wanted sign in Las Vegas and am feared by fantasy football mavens nationwide, but when it comes to the college game, I choose to punt.
That’s where Derek Cooley comes in. The dude is a loaded gun of university knowledge.
Let’s kick off the football, spring the horses from the gate and pad our bankrolls!
**Lines as of Wednesday Night from scoresandodds.com**
College Pigskins – by Derek Cooley
Week one can be tricky, but we held our own. Mistakes cost Michigan a cover, Michigan State couldn't quite hold their big lead, Arizona State on the road is STILL Arizona State on the road and Notre Dame played great against a Texas club that isn’t as good as I thought. 
Other than that, everything looked good!  Ohio State and Alabama overpowered their respective opponents and Minnesota was given way too many points on a Thursday night at home ... against a TCU team that, yes, is number two but an unproven number two.
Last week: 3-4
Season Total: 3-4 (.429)
Let's move on to week two, where we have one less game we are looking at, but the quality is outstanding.
(#14) LSU -4.5 @ (#25) Mississippi State (Saturday, 9:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)
It's time for LSU's revenge following last year's upset loss to the Bulldogs in Baton Rouge. Dak Prescott had his coming-out party for MSU in that game last year, and I truly believe it will be Brandon Harris/Leonard Fournette this time around. MSU has zero tape on LSU, while the Tigers have been able to break down the Bulldogs' victory over a bad Southern Miss squad. I believe the rested Tigers have the ability to win by 10.
COACH LES MILES WILL HAVE LSU READY

"LSU OLE MISS 4" by JustDog - Own work. Licensed under Public Domain via Wikimedia Commons.
(#10) Georgia -20 @ Vanderbilt (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
Let's start exactly were a Georgia/Vanderbilt conversation should start: Western Kentucky. That is not a bad team, just look at some of the points they put up last year. But it still is Western Kentucky of Conference USA. If the Hilltoppers can top the Commodores by a deuce in Nashville, Nick Chubb can scamper for 3 TDs and lead Georgia to an easy victory.
BYU + 2.5 v. (#20) Boise State (Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)
I'm going to ride the magic of Mangum. BYU freshman QB Tanner Mangum returns home for his first start at home after the Hail Mary victory in Lincoln, Neb. Unfortunately, Mangum's opportunity came at a price for the Cougars in losing star QB Taysom Hill to injury for the season. BYU looked in control most of the way at Nebraska, an extremely hostile environment. The Broncos hit the road for the first time this season after squeaking out the win against ex-coach Chris Peterson and Washington. A great win for the Broncos, but give me the dogs at home!
Virginia + 12.5 v. (#9) Notre Dame (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
It's another one of those "Notre Dame" games. Last week was a giant swing and miss on the Fighting Irish. This week, however ... this week seems different. Notre Dame is giving 12.5 points in its first road game, let alone a road game in a Power 5 conference. Virginia had to travel out to L.A. last week and will welcome the trip home to face the Irish. I'm not saying Virginia will pull the upset, but I'm not saying they won't … 12.5 points, however? I think the Cavs cover.
(#19) Oklahoma -1 @ (#23) Tennessee (Saturday, 6 p.m. ET, ESPN)
My favorite name to say in all of college football, Samaje Perine. He wasn't anywhere near his stellar self against Akron, but he will be in Knoxville, Tenn. Tennessee didn't impress me enough against Bowling Green to really garner the 1-point favorite opening line for this game. Even though this is the biggest home game in recent Tennessee history, they aren't up for the challenge quite yet. Perine and the Sooners cover.
(#7) Oregon +4 @ (#5) Michigan State (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC)
This was the toughest game to pick as I kept going back and forth. I don't think Michigan State should be that large of a favorite. A favorite to win, yes, but not a 4-point favorite against an Oregon team that loves the big play. That's the fatal flaw for Michigan State: the big play. This game reminds me of Michigan State-Ohio State last year, and Vernon Adams will play the role of J.T. Barrett. A couple of big plays doomed the vaunted MSU defense, which also happened in Eugene, Ore., last year, but that was a Marcus Mariota-led Ducks offense. The offenses will dazzle but the defenses will win the game. It might come down to who can get that crucial stop. If MSU wins by a field goal late, Oregon still covers.
Pro Pigskins – by Joe Kristufek
Free agency, Deflategate, the draft, Deflategate, OTAs, Deflategate, training camp, Deflategate, pre-season snoozers, Deflategate, injuries, Deflategate, fantasy football drafts, Tom Brady is free … kickoff
The NFL season is FINALLY here. Time to cannonball into the pool! 
Sunday, Sept. 13
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m. ET
LeSean McCoy proclaimed himself “ready to go” for the season opener, but even against an average Colts defense, I don’t trust the Bills to score points. The Buffalo defense should keep them in the game, but the Colts dangerous weapons should help them gallop home late.
Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Washington Redskins, 1 p.m. ET
The Dolphins arrow pointed up in 2014, and they enjoyed one of the better offseasons in the NFL. The defense is rock solid and the offense should be balanced and more dynamic. As usual, the Redskins are in disarray, and they’re not that good to begin with.
LAMAR MILLER AND DOLPHINS SHOULD RUN OVER REDSKINS

"Lamar Miller 2014" by Jeffrey Beall - Own work. Licensed under CC BY 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons.
St. Louis Rams (+4) vs. Seattle Seahawks, 1 p.m. ET
The Rams defense is one of the best in the league, and as long as QB Nick Foles can stay healthy, the St. Louis offense should be a lot more stable this season. The Seahawks are, well, the Seahawks. They’re dynamic on defense and poised on offense, but the hangover of the Super Bowl loss may linger early the first few weeks. Expect this low-scoring game to be decided by a field goal either way.
Oakland Raiders (+3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 4:25 p.m. ET
The Raiders have improved on both sides of the ball, and their ravenous fan base should have the team fired up for the season opener. We all know Bengals QB Andy Dalton does not respond well under pressure. The turnovers are coming and so is the potential home upset.
Baltimore Ravens (+4.5) at Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m. ET
The Ravens have had weeks to prepare for the season opener and chances are their defense will get plenty of pressure on a sitting duck in Broncos QB Peyton Manning. The addition of coordinator Mark Trestman should help Baltimore maximize an underachieving offense.
Monday, Sept. 14
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Atlanta Falcons, 6:55 p.m. ET
A healthy Falcons offense should be able to put up some points, but chances are their defense will be absolutely shredded by Chip Kelly’s crew. In what should be a pinball machine of a game, it’s highly unlikely to be decided by a kicker.
EXPECT PLENTY OF POINTS IN THIS ONE

"Darren Sproles 2014" by Keith Allison - Flickr. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons.
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers, 10:15 p.m. ET
In a match-up of two teams headed in different directions, the Vikings are a good bet to win this game outright. Adrian Peterson is back for Minnesota. Frank Gore, Jim Harbaugh and half the San Francisco defense are gone.
Ponies – by Joe Kristufek
WOW! Led by Liam’s Map at Saratoga Race Course, Tourist at Kentucky Downs and Songbird at Del Mar, there were some IMPRESSIVE performances last weekend. The march toward the Breeders’ Cup continues with turf horses and 2-year-old leading the charge in Kentucky!
Last week: 3-1-1-1 ($2 WPS * $18 wagered * $20.40 returned)
Season Total: 3-1-1-1 ($2 WPS * $18 wagered * $20.40 returned = $6.80)
Saturday, Sept. 12
Kentucky Downs – Franklin, Ky.
Race 9 – Kentucky Downs Turf Dash
#4 Mongol Bull (8-to-1, morning line) – This grassy dash specialist doesn’t get the respect he deserves. In recent starts, just looks at his odds relative to his finish. He took rare money last out at Arlington Park and wound up finishing a good third behind a pair of razor-sharp rivals. The price should be right once again today.
Race 10 – Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes (G3)
#7 Da Big Hoss (8-to-1, morning line) -- Claimed for $50,000 in June at Churchill Downs, this 4-year-old son of Lemon Drop Kid has won consecutive races for his new connections, one via DQ. He’s proven over marathon distances, but against this classy field his odds should be inviting.
Churchill Downs – Louisville, Ky.
Race 9 – Iroquois Stakes (G3)
#3 Expected Ruler (9-to-2, morning line)
Debuting in the grassy, five-furlong Tyro Stakes at Monmouth Park, this 2-year-old by Leroidesanimeax delivered a visually impressive 47.30-to-1 upset win. He’s built like a router, and therefore may relish the added distance against a less-than-accomplished field of foes. 
EXPECTED RULER WINNING TYRO

Photo By Bill Denver/EQUI-PHOTO