Three Horses Capable of Canadian Stakes Upset
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Hoop of Colour (#3), above winning the Santa Ana Stakes earlier this year at Santa Anita, is one of several horses with a shot to upset Canadian Stakes favorite Strut the Course. (BENOIT photo)
Woodbine Racetrack in Canada will host a stellar afternoon of racing on Sunday, with races such as the Northern Dancer Stakes and the Ricoh Woodbine Mile highlighting the card.
In addition to the Northern Dancer and Woodbine Mile, fillies and mares will take center stage in the ninth race of the afternoon, which is the 61st edition of the Canadian Stakes. The Canadian Stakes has a purse of $300,000 and carries Grade 2 status, which means horses near the top echelon of the female turf division will be competing in this race. Both the Canadian Stakes and the Woodbine Mile Stakes will be televised from 4:30-6 p.m. as part of The Jockey Club Tour on Fox Sports 1.
The 5-to-2 morning-line favorite for the Canadian Stakes is Strut the Course, but I have concerns about her ability to win this race.
Much of Strut the Course’s success thus far in her career has been found when racing on Woodbine’s synthetic Polytrack surface (six career wins on Polytrack), while the Canadian Stakes will be contested on turf, a surface on which she has two career wins.
While Strut the Course did defeat 2015 Beverly D. Stakes winner Whatsdachances in the Dance Smartly Stakes on July 5, I’m also a little skeptical of the competition Strut the Course has defeated in the eight victories so far on her career résumé.
With those points in mind, below are three horses I think have a good chance to defeat Strut the Course in the Canadian Stakes on Sunday:
3. Hoop of Colour (4-to-1): Graham Motion, one of the top turf trainers in America, trains this filly. So far in her career, Hoop of Colour has run in six races and has won four of them, including a pair of victories at Santa Anita Park in California last winter. While she has not competed in a race since March, Motion does well when returning horses off a layoff, and it appears Hoop of Colour has been training well during the past month. Drayden Van Dyke, who won with Hoop of Colour in both of her races at Santa Anita earlier in 2015, will travel to Canada to ride.
6. Ticking Katie (15-to-1): Similar to Hoop of Colour, Ticking Katie began her racing career in Europe. After 15 races in Europe, Ticking Katie was shipped to the United States. She did not disappoint in her first race on American soil, winning at Belmont Park on June 17. Most recently, Ticking Katie finished fourth in a $100,000 stakes race at Saratoga Race Course, and any improvement off that race should make her competitive in the Canadian Stakes. Ticking Katie’s trainer, Brian Lynch, does very well at Woodbine: he has won 24% of his races at Woodbine so far in 2015.
9. Habibi (8-to-1): She has won nearly half of the races in her career, where she sports a record of seven wins from 15 career races. Most recently, Habibi won the Flaming Page Stakes at Woodbine, where she defeated two horses who also will return in the Canadian Stakes in Button Down and Llanarmon. It can be argued that Habibi may be a little better at distances longer than the 1 1/8 miles of the Canadian Stakes, but I believe Habibi is ready to put forth a top effort on Sunday.
Betting Strategy
$2 exacta box: 3,6,9 ($12)
$4 win/place: 6 ($8)
Total=$20
$300,000 Canadian StakesSunday, Woodbine, Race 9, 5:12 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, turf, fillies and mares 3 years old and olderTV: Watch The Jockey Club Tour on Fox Sports 1 from 4:30-6 p.m. ET
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owners
Odds
1
Personal Diary
Joe Talamo
Victoria Oliver
G. Watts Humphrey Jr. & St George Farm Racing
10-1
2
Button Down
Joel Rosario
Josie Carroll
Greenwood Lodge Farm Inc.
12-1
3
Hoop of Colour
Drayden Van Dyke
Graham Motion
Flaxman Holdings Ltd.
4-1
4
Strut the Course
Luis Contreras
Barbara Minshall
John Unger
5-2
5
Bear's Pride
Patrick Husbands
Reade Baker
Bear Stables Ltd.
20-1
6
Ticking Katie
Luis Saez
Brian Lynch
Jim and Susan Hill
15-1
7
Uchenna
Alan Garcia
Roger Attfield
Triton Stable
6-1
8
Llanarmon
Gary Boulanger
Roger Attfield
Triton Stable and Robert N. Clay
20-1
9
Habibi
Emma-Jayne Wilson
Mark Frostad
Augustin Stable
8-1
10
Copper Kitten
Jesse Campbell
David Bell
R.F. and J.E. Shaw
20-1
11
Overheard
Eurico Rosa Da Silva
Malcolm Pierce
Pin Oak Stable
5-1