Deterministic Solidifies Brilliance in Fourstardave
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Photo: Skip Dickstein
Deterministic wins the Fourstardave Stakes at Saratoga Race Course
Miguel Clement has spent roughly two years claiming that Deterministic🔥 is the best turf horse in the nation, and Aug. 8 he got every bit of that justification in the $750,000 Fourstardave Stakes (G1T) at Saratoga Race Course.
St. Elias Stable, Ken Langone, Steven Duncker, and Vicarage Stable's exceptional son of Liam's Map faced a top-quality field, weathered a downpour that began just minutes before post, and sailed to his sixth consecutive victory and fourth grade 1.
"We always thought he was special from Day 1," Clement said. "He's taken his training to another level. I can't keep saying enough; he's special, he's built different—distance, versatility, ground. For me, he's the leader of the division, I've been saying that for two years, and hopefully everyone agrees now."
Deterministic did not leave much room for argument as he broke well under Kendrick Carmouche and found himself second on the outside. One of the key pace contenders, dual grade 1 winner Rhetorical , broke poorly after acting up in the gate and found himself toward the rear of the six-horse field. That allowed Deterministic to race comfortably in second, as Mi Bago set fractions of :24.20, :48.54, and 1:12.19 on a course rated firm but got pelted by rain.
Carmouche, who first joined Deterministic's saddle at the start of the six-race win streak, urged his trusty steed on as they entered the stretch. He put away a battling Mi Bago and surged clear to win by 1 1/2 lengths, paying $5.22 to win as the favorite while completing a mile in 1:35.07.
Mi Bago held on for second with Zulu Kingdom finishing third.
The sudden rainstorm, which naturally would come to a stop as soon as the field crossed the wire, threw a curveball to all competitors, but Clement gave credit to his 5-year-old horse's stellar mind to handle it with ease.
"Any time you add more and more variables in the mix, it's never ideal," Clement said. "Nevertheless, yet again, he just bails all of us out and he's just special. I can't say enough. The way he moves is unlike any other horse we've had in our stables. He's the most efficient mover. Mentally, he's got that predisposition to just want to win. You never watch a horse reach as much as he does and how willing he is. He doesn't like his job, he loves his job. And we love him."
The 42-year-old Carmouche, a winner of more than 4,000 races, was filled with joy and praise in the winner's circle. A veteran rider whose career began in 2000, Deterministic has represented four of his six career grade 1 wins.
"What an amazing horse," Carmouche said. "He made my career. He's the best horse I ever rode in my life. I hope I get many more, but I will be very pleased with just having this one. Miguel and his owners, his barn, his gallop hands, his groom, hotwalkers, they deserve all the credit.
Deterministic with jockey Kendrick Carmouche pulls away from the competition in the Fourstardave Stakes
"I'm so proud of him. He's what you want in this industry. If anybody wants to come into our sport and enjoy moments like this, this is it. We don't always have these moments, but these are the moments that bring you to horse racing."
Deterministic also added to an already emotional and successful weekend for Clement and his family. Clement's father Christophe, who died in May 2025, was inducted into the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame Aug. 7. The barn then won the grade 2 named after the Hall of Fame later that afternoon with Dahman's Bottas . The barn also added a win earlier on Saturday's card with Elements Racing's first-time starter Oscar .
READ: Bottas Spins Magical Tale in Hall of Fame Stakes
Deterministic's six-win streak began in the 2025 Fort Marcy Stakes (G2T), which was Christophe Clement's second-last graded stakes victory before his death.
Winning a second straight edition of the Fourstardave, Deterministic again earned himself an automatic berth to the $2 million Breeders' Cup Mile (G1T) Oct. 31 at Keeneland through the Breeders' Cup Challenge Series: Win And You're In. Last year, he was sidelined following the Fourstardave and missed the race.
Clement said he will meet with ownership to discuss the final steppingstone to get to this year's Breeders' Cup, mentioning he had his eye on the Woodbine Mile Stakes (G1T) last year before Deterministic was sidelined and that he's again eyeing the $1 million race held Sept. 12 at Woodbine.
Deterministic was bred in Kentucky by Hinkle Farms and purchased out of their consignment for $625,000 by St. Elias at the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. He is one of three grade 1 winners this year by Liam's Map, who also is the sire of Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Napoleon Solo and Arlington Million Stakes (G1T) winner Burnham Square🔥 . Liam's Map stood the 2026 season at Lane's End near Versailles, Ky., for a $50,000 fee. Deterministic is out of the winning Speightstown mare Giulio's Jewel.