In Terms of Travers Trends, Golden Tempo Checks Boxes

Saturday's 157th running of the $1.25 million Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratoga Race Course drew a stellar field.

The 10-horse field includes most of the top 3-year-old males in the United States, including dual classic winner Golden Tempo🔥 , Arkansas Derby (G1) winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up Renegade , Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Napoleon Solo , and Ocelli , a maiden who finished third in the Kentucky Derby and fourth in the Preakness.

Determining the most likely winner isn't easy. But perusing the recent history of the Travers reveals recurring trends and tendencies we can use to sort through the contenders and identify the horse who most resembles past Travers winners.

Here are seven historical angles to aid your handicapping:

Avoid Betting Deep Closers

Did you know 12 of the past 16 Travers winners (75%) were positioned no more than 3 1/2 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile? It's uncommon for horses who rally from far back to win the Travers.

Favor Veterans of the Triple Crown

Horses who competed in one or more legs of the Triple Crown have won 11 of the past 16 editions of the Travers (69%), including the past seven in a row.

Haskell Alumni Rarely Prevail

The grade 1 Haskell Stakes is a major summer prize for 3-year-olds, but it rarely produces Travers winners. The last Haskell alum to win the Travers was Keen Ice  in 2015, and the last horse to sweep both races was Point Given in 2001.

New York Is Best Place to Prep

Horses exiting a race in New York have won 12 of the past 16 editions of the Travers (75%). Seven of those 12 winners exited the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) at Saratoga, including six horses (Stay Thirsty  , Alpha , Essential Quality  , Epicenter  , Fierceness  , and Sovereignty ) who swept both races.

Last-Out Winners Are Tough to Beat

Thirteen of the past 16 Travers winners (including the past 10 in a row) won their final race prior to the Travers.

Favor Sons of Grade 1 Winners at 1 1/8 Miles or Longer

Horses sired by stallions who won at the grade 1 level racing 1 1/8 miles or farther perform best in the Travers. They’ve won 11 of the past 16 editions (69%).

Avoid Betting the Horse Drawn in Post 1

Since 1995, the innermost post position has produced only one Travers winner: Arrogate in 2016.

Conclusions

Several Travers entrants, including Jim Dandy Stakes winner Renegade (No. 5, 3-1) and Preakness winner Napoleon Solo (No. 3, 8-1), match five of the seven angles we’ve outlined. But only Golden Tempo (No. 9, 5-2) matches six:

• He competed with aplomb during the Triple Crown, winning the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1)
• He skipped the Haskell Stakes
• His previous race was in New York
• He won his most recent race
• He’s a son of Curlin  , who won many grade 1 races at 1 1/8 miles or longer
• He’ll break from a post position other than No. 1

The only knock against Golden Tempo is the fact he’s a pure deep closer without any early speed. He’ll almost certainly be farther than 3 1/2 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile. But his late-running style didn’t prevent him from overcoming a modest early pace to win the Belmont Stakes, and overall, history suggests Golden Tempo is a strong contender to win the Travers.