Leading Change Pulls the Upset in Travers Stakes

For virtually all of the year, Wathnan Racing's Commandment🔥  seemed like the stable's top hope for the Travers Stakes (G1).

A runner-up finish by the grade 1 winner in the Belmont Stakes (G1) only enhanced that opinion.

But prior to the Aug. 1 Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) at Saratoga Race Course, a race in which Commandment finished second, trainer Brad Cox was asked about Commandment's chances of moving onto the Travers.

He expressed some concern about Commandment at the Travers' 1 1/4 miles. He said Wathnan's undefeated Leading Change  was better suited for the classic distance. The very same Leading Change who had just two career starts to his credit, including a win in the Indiana Derby (G3).

Fast forward to the Aug. 29 Travers at the Spa, where Wathnan and Cox reveled in a very special win by ... Leading Change.

A lack of experience was outweighed by superior talent as Leading Change, with the help of a stellar ride from Manny Franco, ran down a game Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Napoleon Solo  in the final yards to post a half-length victory in the $1.25 million Midsummer Derby for 3-year-olds, beating the winners of the three Triple Crown races in the process.

"I felt he was a true mile-and-a-quarter horse just by the way he trained along. He's a good colt. I'm glad he showed up today," Cox said. "At the end of the day, even with the lack of seasoning, he was able to get the job done with talent and we're very proud of him."

By 2017 Horse of the Year and Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Gun Runner   and a half brother to 2020 Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Shedaresthedevil  out of the Congrats mare Starship Warpspeed, Leading Change surely had the pedigree to add credence to Cox's belief in his stamina.

"The pedigree kicked in," Cox said about the colt bred by WinStar Farm.

Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes winner Golden Tempo🔥  rallied from ninth in the field of 10 to finish 2 1/4 lengths behind the winner on a day when the pecking order in the 3-year-old division took a blow, though the dual classic winner remains the leader heading into the Breeders' Cup.

"I think if they voted today, Golden Tempo deserves to take home the Eclipse Award," Cox said. "This is the Midsummer Derby, though we don't have half the year left. We'll see how things shake out. We're going to take him back home to Kentucky and I'm not sure where we'll land or end up, but we'll move him forward."

For Cox, it was his second victory in the Midsummer Derby after Essential Quality  's win in the 2021 edition.

"This is huge," he said. "The first one with Essential Quality was very special, but it was expected. He was a 2-year-old champ and the favorite. Watching the television as they loaded (Leading Change) in the gate, I saw him go down from 13-1 to 11-1 and thought I should bet a dollar on him."

Wathnan Racing, owned by Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Emir of Qatar, notched its fourth North American grade 1 win and second of the year. Commandment garnered the first in the Florida Derby (G1).

"I want to give thanks to Wathnan Racing and the Emir and his family," said Case Clay, racing manager for the stable. "The remit for us in Europe and also in America is to buy horses that put them in races and try and win races that the Emir and his family would be proud of. So, it means a lot that they've given us the confidence as a team to do that."

As expected, Espoir USA's Napoleon Solo set the pace in the 157th Travers, leading by about a length over Curlin Stakes winner Sea Strike  through moderate fractions of :23.66, :47.95, and 1:12.62, while 2-1 favorite Golden Tempo and Renegade , the Kentucky Derby runner-up and Jim Dandy winner, were at the very back, at least 16 lengths behind after a half-mile.

Sea Strike mounted a bid for the lead at the top of the stretch, but a determined Napoleon Solo and John Velazquez fended him off. Golden Tempo launched a bid along the inside, but could not sustain it. 

Instead it was Leading Change, after breaking sharply but then settling into third along the rail in the early stages, who moved outside in upper stretch to collar Napoleon Solo at the sixteenth pole and edge away in the final strides.

Leading Change ($22.76) was timed in 2:02.98.

Franco, who is in the midst of a sensational year at the Spa with 58 wins (just seven behind Jose Ortiz), recorded a second Travers win, adding a big exclamation mark to his meet.

"I had the trip that we expected. We wanted to be forward behind Napoleon Solo and Sea Strike," said Franco, who won the 2020 Travers on Tiz the Law🔥  . "I just sat on the rail the whole way around. We turned for home, I put him on the outside and he leveled out. He was digging in."

For Chad Summers, who trains multiple grade 1 winner Napoleon Solo, the race mixed disappointment and pride.

"He shows up every time he runs. I'm proud of the horse, always," Summers said. "There was a battle to the wire and they just got us at the end. At the eighth pole, I just wanted the wire to come. You don't want to make a habit of running second in these kind of races but we're proud of the horse."

Summers said the son of Liam's Map   would be nominated to both the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) and the Classic.

For Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stable's homebred Curlin   colt Golden Tempo, the loss ended hopes of matching Horse of the Year Sovereignty 's trio of Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes, and Travers wins a year ago.

"He was far back," trainer Cherie DeVaux said following Golden Tempo's first start since the June 6 Belmont at the Spa. "It just didn't work out with the lack of pace. He had too much to do. He came back fine and that's what's important."

Leading Change, who did not make his first start until June 7 because of bone bruising that sidelined him at 2, was bought for $800,000 at the 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale out of the Taylor Made Sales Agency consignment. He is the 10th foal from Starship Warpspeed and her third stakes winner.

second-best Handle in Travers history

Attendance was 47,659 and the all-sources handle was $60,863,320, the second highest in Travers history.

The top handle figure was $63,023,405 in 2024.

Video: DraftKings Travers S. (G1)