Gun Runner's 'Rhyme' Continues With Leading Change

Samuel Clemens, better known as Mark Twain, is popularly credited with the saying, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes." That being so, he likely would have appreciated the result of the Aug. 29 Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratoga Race Course.

A week earlier, the lightly raced My Gun's Loaded🔥 —undefeated in her two previous starts this year after being off the board in her only outing at 2—upset the seemingly established order among the 3-year-old fillies, taking the Alabama Stakes (G1) with the pro tem divisional leader Counting Stars  back in third.

On Saturday, the Travers Stakes, run over the same 1 1/4-mile distance as the Alabama, was supposed to bring clarity to the 3-year-old male division. The race drew Golden Tempo🔥 , the leader of the cohort on the basis of victories in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1) in his two most recent starts; Napoleon Solo , who had captured the Preakness Stakes (G1) in the absence of Golden Tempo; Renegade , beaten just a neck in the Kentucky Derby and winner since of the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2); Baby Vino , who had run down Napoleon Solo late in the Haskell Stakes (G1); and the third favorite, the highly rated Sea Strike , runaway winner of the Curlin Stakes over Derby and Belmont fourth Chief Wallabee .

In the event, Napoleon Solo won the battle of the classic heroes, making a gallant attempt to go wire-to-wire and missing by just a half-length, while Golden Tempo, running for the first time since the Belmont and dealing with a less-than-optimal trip, clocked in third, another 1 3/4 lengths back. The race was won, however, by the relatively unheralded Leading Change —who started at odds of over 10-1—throwing the division into chaos. Depending on the Breeders' Cup results, this chaos might unusually determine that the title of champion 3-year-old male could go not to a classic runner, but to the brilliant sprinter Englishman , who routed his opposition in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes (G1) on the Travers undercard.

Englishman is currently the top-ranked 3-year-old male in the National Thoroughbred Racing Association's Top Thoroughbred Poll, ranked seventh behind six older horses. He is ahead of fellow 3-year-olds Golden Tempo in ninth, Leading Change in 12th, and Napoleon Solo in 15th.

READ: Englishman Up to Seventh in NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll

Coincidentally, Leading Change, like My Gun's Loaded, came into the race undefeated in his only two previous outings this year. To complete the "rhyme" rather remarkably, he—again like My Gun's Loaded—is by Gun Runner   out of a mare by Congrats .

One slight difference between My Gun's Loaded and Leading Change is that, while My Gun's Loaded had one outing at 2, Leading Change had to miss his intended juvenile outing because of bone bruising. So his first start didn't come until June 7 of this year, when he made short work of the field in a 7-furlong Churchill Downs maiden special weight, scoring by 6 1/2 lengths. On his only other outing, Leading Change outfought Our Moneyman  to take the Indiana Derby (G3) by a neck.

My Gun's Loaded and Leading Change are from the fifth crop sired by the 2017 champion older male and Horse of the Year, Gun Runner  , since he retired to commence his stud career at Three Chimneys Farm in Midway, Ky.

The chestnut stallion led off with a remarkable first crop that, from 103 starters, has so far produced 19 stakes winners and 12 graded stakes winners—among them champion 2-year-old filly Echo Zulu🔥 , Preakness Stakes (G1) victor Early Voting  , and other grade 1 scorers Taiba🔥  , Gunite  , Society , and Cyberknife  .

His current 3-year-old crop—his first sired at a fee of $125,000 after standing for between $50,000 and $70,000 in prior seasons—is now not far behind. It has already yielded 15 individual stakes winners (10 graded), including, in addition to My Gun's Loaded and Leading Change: champion 2-year-old filly Super Corredora ; Always a Runner , heroine of this year's Kentucky Oaks (G1); Further Ado🔥 , an 11-length winner of the Blue Grass Stakes (G1); 2025 Del Mar Futurity (G1) victor Brant🔥 ; and the undefeated Remsen Stakes (G2) and Risen Star Stakes (G2) winner Paladin🔥 , who headed the Derby betting before being sidelined by a condylar fracture of his right front ankle. Other notables among Gun Runner's 61 stakes winners include champion 3-year-old male Sierra Leone🔥  , and grade 1 winners Locked  , Vahva , and Gun Pilot  .

Leading Change's dam, Starship Warpspeed, scored her only win in an off-the-turf, 7-furlong $40,000 maiden claiming event at Belmont Park, which she took by 26 3/4 lengths in a four-horse field. She has previously produced a true standout in the Daredevil  daughter Shedaresthedevil , whose 10 wins included the Kentucky Oaks, La Troienne Stakes (G1), Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (G1), Fleur de Lis Stakes (G2), Azeri Stakes (G2), Locust Grove Stakes (G3), Honeybee Stakes (G3), and Indiana Oaks (G3). Overall, Starship Warpspeed is the dam of seven winners from seven starters, also including the Uncle Mo horse Star of Wonder🔥 , who took the King Faisal Bin Abdulaziz Cup.

Starship Warpspeed is a full sister to Applauding, the dam of Excelsior Stakes scorer Laughing Boy. She is out of the Forestry mare Andria's Forest, a half sister to Crafty C. T. (winner of the San Rafael Stakes, G2, and six-time grade 1-placed) and to stakes-winning, graded-placed Carmen's Baby. Starship Warpspeed's second dam, Andriana B., is by Far North out of Sign Language, a full sister to graded winner Screen King. Sign Language is out of a daughter of Mumtaz, ancestress of more than 80 stakes winners and 31 group and graded stakes winners, including Prix du Jockey Club French Derby (G1) winner Hernando; Palace Music, a group and grade 1 winner on both sides of the Atlantic; German Oaks (G1) winner Well Timed; and other group and grade 1 winners Akeed Mofeed, Johann Quatz, and Prize Spot. This female family is a branch of the 'L' mitochondrial haplogroup, as are Candy Ride  , Ride the Rails, and Cryptoclearance—the sire, grandsire, and great-grandsire of Gun Runner—and Giant's Causeway, the broodmare sire of Gun Runner.

As noted, My Gun's Loaded and Leading Change are out of mares by Congrats. There are only five starters on that direct cross, and four of them are black-type horses. That, however, is only part of the story. The cross of Gun Runner with a mare by Congrats' full brother Flatter  yielded Taiba🔥  . Overall, the cross of Gun Runner with mares by all stallions bred on the A.P. Indy/Mr. Prospector cross that produced Congrats and Flatter is responsible for 11 stakes winners (nine graded) from 41 starters, including other grade 1 winners Sierra Leone, Locked, and Always a Runner. There are also a further 11 stakes winners by Gun Runner out of mares by sons of the A.P. Indy/Mr. Prospector cross Pulpit.