Iron Fist Could Rule Pennsylvania Derby

Iron Fist will try to win his first stakes win in Saturday's Pennsylvania Derby. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
The 36th running of the Grade 2, $1-million Pennsylvania Derby at Parx Racing brings together a group of 3-year-olds trying to make their mark in the division while winning the $600,000 winner's share of the purse. Not only that, the horses that run well here may take on their elders six weeks hence in the Breeders' Cup Classic, facing the likes of fellow 3-year-olds American Pharoah and Keen Ice. Many of the Pennsylvania Derby entrants are coming off top efforts in graded stakes.
The group is led by Grade 2 West Virginia Derby winner Madefromlucky, one of two from the barn of North American leading trainer Todd Pletcher. Also from the West Virginia Derby comes third-place finisher War Story and fourth-place finisher Iron Fist, the latter with a chance to upset the field based on his two big efforts prior to that. Frosted is likely to get a lot of support among bettors after finishing second or third in three straight races including last month when third behind Keen Ice and American Pharoah in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes.
Gimme Da Lute enters the Pennsylvania Derby riding a four-stakes winning streak while Mr. Z  attempts to rebound to the form shown when he won the Ohio Derby in June, but is coming off a seventh-place effort in the one-turn Grade 1 King's Bishop Stakes last month. Island Town won the Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes in June, then two races later the Grade 3 Smarty Jones Stakes and can't be ruled out as a contender either. Upstart is winless since victory in the Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes in January and finished 2 1/2 lengths behind Frosted in the Travers in his most recent start.
Contenders (in preference order):
Iron Fist showed a lot of ability when sent around two turns for the first time on May 25, earning a career-best 115 Equibase Speed Figure that was stakes quality. Showing that effort to be no fluke, he returned one month later on June 28 and won with speed to spare with a 113 figure. In his next start, Iron Fist tried stakes company for the very first time in the West Virginia Derby on August 1 and was well-regarded at five-to-two odds. However, after making an eye-catching move in the middle of the race to go from seventh (five lengths behind the leader) to third (just a half-length back), Iron Fist could not sustain the rally and ended up fourth. Shipped back to trainer Jerry Hollendorfer's home base in California, Iron Fist has put in six very strong workouts, so strong in fact that the trainer entered then scratched him from the El Cajon Stakes on August 29 to run in this race. Considering only one other horse in this field, Gimme Da Lute (114 figure in his most recent race)¸ has run as fast as Iron Fist has run to date, this well-bred colt could post the upset in this year's Pennsylvania Derby.
Gimme Da Lute is the other horse coming in from California and he just about shares top billing in terms of who can win this race. Gimme Da Lute is a perfect three-for-three around two turns, having won the Grade 3 Affirmed Stakes, the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Derby and the El Cajon Stakes this spring and summer. His best effort to date came in the El Cajon Stakes with a 114 figure and as his win in the Los Alamitos Derby came at the distance of this Pennsylvania Derby there is no question of his ability to win at nine furlongs. Gimme Da Lute has good tactical speed so he is likely to be sitting close off the likely pacesetter Mr. Z and as such he could take over with an eighth of a mile to go to win in the same fashion he did in his last three races.
GIMME DA LUTE

Madefromlucky got onto the Road to the Kentucky Derby with a runner-up effort behind eventual Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in the Rebel Stakes in March. However, after a fourth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby his connections decided to skip the Kentucky Derby. That turned out to be a wise choice as Madefromlucky won the Peter Pan Stakes in May before a sixth-place effort in the Belmont Stakes. In his most recent start, Madefromlucky earned a career-best 108 figure winning the West Virginia Derby rather easily, bringing his record at this 1 1/8-mile distance to three-for-four.  If he is able to move up off that effort he could add another graded stakes win to his resume.
Notes about some others:
I think Frosted, Upstart, War Story, Island Town and Mr. Z all have a chance to finish second, third or fourth and round out the exotic bets such as the exacta, trifecta or superfecta, but I don't think any of them have nearly the probability to win of any of the top three listed contenders.
Frosted will likely go to post as the favorite based on his second-place finish behind American Pharoah in the Belmont Stakes, his second place finish in the Jim Dandy Stakes (with a career best 111 figure) and his recent third-place effort in the Travers. However, those are the exact reasons I don't think he will win as he has either run evenly or lost ground in the last eighth of a mile in his last four races. Even taking American Pharoah out of the picture in the three races he was in, Frosted didn't show me the kind of willingness to win I think it will take to succeed here.
FROSTED

War Story earned a career-best 105 figure rallying for third behind Madefromlucky in the West Virginia Derby and should be passing many of these in the stretch.
Island Town earned 101 figures winning the Matt Winn and Smarty Jones and should be second or third in the early stages behind Mr. Z and possibly Gimme Da Lute, so if he is able to save energy he could be around at the end for a share as well.
Upstart ran evenly or lost ground in the last eighth of a mile in three of his last four races (excluding his 18th place effort in the Derby) but he could stick around for a piece a well, particularly if he runs back to the 113 figure effort when second in the Florida Derby.
Mr. Z will likely be sent for the front from his outside post and that tactic worked well when winning the Ohio Derby before a runner-up effort with a career-best 107 figure in the Indiana Derby. He never saw the early lead he likes in the one-turn King's Bishop but back around two turns he should be in front early and could fight on nicely to the end.
Tommy Macho earned a 110 figure when winning a one-turn route in June but ran poorly in two stakes races since. The best figure Battle Midway ever earned was 86 and he appears overmatched.
Win contenders:Iron FistGimme Da LuteMadefromlucky
$1-million Pennsylvania DerbySaturday, Parx Racing, Race 10 at 5:45 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds 

PP

Horse

 Jockey

Trainer

Owner

ML Odds

1 

War Story

Deshawn L. Parker

Jeffrey Radosevich

Loooch Racing Stables and Glenn Ellis

 20/1

2

Island Town 

Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.

Ian Wilkes

Six Column Stables, Randall Bloch, Seilar Racing and David Hall 

 10/1

3

Frosted 

Joel Rosario

Kiaran McLaughlin

Godolphin Racing

 5/2

4

Iron Fist 

Mike E. Smith 

Jerry Hollendorfer 

Regis Farms and Stonestreet Stables

8/1

5 

Madefromlucky 

John R. Velazquez 

Todd Pletcher

Cheyenne Stables and Mac Nichol

 4/1

6

Gimme Da Lute 

Martin Garcia 

Bob Baffert

Karl Watson, Michael Pegram and Paul Weitman

 5/1

7

Tommy Macho 

Javier Castellano

Todd Pletcher 

Paul P. Pompa Jr. & All American Horse

10/1

8

Battle Midway

Aaron T. Gryder 

Nicholas Zito 

Mossarosa

20/1

9 

Upstart 

Irad Ortiz, Jr. 

Rick Violette 

Ralph Evans and WinStar Farm

9/2

10 

Mr. Z 

Luis Saez

D. Wayne Lukas

Calumet Farm

10/1