Betting the Pennsylvania Derby on a Budget
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Description:
Madefromlucky winning the West Virginia Derby. (Photo by Coady Photograhpy)
Parx Racing plays host to a sizzling showdown of 10 of the nation’s top 3-year-olds in the 35th running of the Pennsylvania Derby on Saturday. The speed-favoring track has attracted stars hailing from the northeast, as well a handful of west coast shippers, one of which I have an eye on.
Madefromlucky is shaping up to be tough to handle in the race. Following a grueling Triple Crown season campaign, the colt enjoyed a two-month layoff, then fired first out with a decisive win in the Grade 2 West Virginia Derby. The Penn Derby is contested at 1 1/8 mile, which plays to Madefromlucky’s favor. He’s notched all three of his wins this year at that distance. And in races he did not win this year, you can’t really fault him, as a horse named American Pharoah won those. To top things off, he’s trained and ridden by the world-class tandem of Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez.
This race is no “gimme” for Madefromlucky, however, and the Baffert-trained Gimmee Da Lute is a formidable contender. Gimme Da Lute may be better suited for a slightly shorter affair with his sprinting pedigree, but I think he’s game enough to hit the board and the speed-favoring track should help his case somewhat. He comes in riding a four-stakes winning streak, but he has yet to face a field as deep as this.
GIMME DA LUTE WINNING THE LOS ALAMITOS DERBY
Photo by Benoit Photos
At 4-1 and 5-1, respectively, on the morning line for Madefromlucky and Gimme Da Lute, there is some value in both horses who are extremely live.
My case against the likely favorite Frosted - a familiar face and contender in the year’s marquee races - is simple. He’s plateaued in his 3-year-old campaign and has yet to show the final push to win, which should be evident at this stage of the season. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if he hangs around and adds another game second to his resume here.
It’s worth noting that, while it’s not a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” race, Bayern used this race last year as his final tune-up en route to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Will the winner of the Pennsylvania Derby follow suit?
Betting on a Budget Strategy:
$10 Win: 5
$2 Exacta: 5,6/3,5,6
$1-million Pennsylvania DerbySaturday, Parx Racing, Race 10 at 5:45 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owner
ML Odds
1
War Story
Deshawn L. Parker
Jeffrey Radosevich
Loooch Racing Stables and Glenn Ellis
20/1
2
Island Town
Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.
Ian Wilkes
Six Column Stables, Randall Bloch, Seilar Racing and David Hall
10/1
3
Frosted
Joel Rosario
Kiaran McLaughlin
Godolphin Racing
5/2
4
Iron Fist
Mike E. Smith
Jerry Hollendorfer
Regis Farms and Stonestreet Stables
8/1
5
Madefromlucky
John R. Velazquez
Todd Pletcher
Cheyenne Stables and Mac Nichol
4/1
6
Gimme Da Lute
Martin Garcia
Bob Baffert
Karl Watson, Michael Pegram and Paul Weitman
5/1
7
Tommy Macho
Javier Castellano
Todd Pletcher
Paul P. Pompa Jr. & All American Horse
10/1
8
Battle Midway
Aaron T. Gryder
Nicholas Zito
Mossarosa
20/1
9
Upstart
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Rick Violette
Ralph Evans and WinStar Farm
9/2
10
Mr. Z
Luis Saez
D. Wayne Lukas
Calumet Farm
10/1