Tip of the Week: A Little Form Can Go a Long Way

Fan photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Sometimes a little bit of form — another way to say encouraging on-track results — is enough.
A $10,000 maiden claiming race at a major track will inevitably attract horses of dubious quality, and the fifth race at Churchill Downs on Sept. 18 was no exception.
Seven of the nine starters in the seven-furlong dirt race had been beaten by 10 lengths or more in their last start and only three had finished third or better in that race.
Numbers like that usually are dismal enough to steer handicappers away from the race, yet sometimes with a little digging there are some nuggets of information that can lead to an intriguing play when the price is right.
In a $10,000 race in which seven of the nine horses were dropping in class, Bandolera’s Gold was actually moving up the claiming ladder. In her previous start, the 3-year-old filly had finished second in a $7,500 maiden claimer at Ellis Park, albeit she was 10 ¼ lengths behind the winner. Yet that race was on the turf, putting into the play the ever popular turf-to-dirt wake-up possibility.
Beyond that, though, Bandolera’s Gold had been competitive in her eight prior dirt races, finishing fourth or better in six of them. Back in the spring, she was second and fourth in $10,000 maiden claimers on the track at Churchill Downs, and she had never been dismissed at odds higher than 14-to-1 in her career.
At 8-to-1 on the morning line — and as the only horse in the field who had been in the money in more than half of her career starts — she was certainly worth a long look. But once the wagering began, Bandolera’s Gold became even more appealing.
By post time, her odds had stretched into the quite attractive neighborhood of 19-to-1, making her a very plausible horse to use in exotic wagers and as a win possibility as well.
As it turned out, Bandolera’s Gold belonged at the top of the ticket. As the dropdowns in the race continued to struggle at a lower level, her proven form at the level paid off nicely as she prevailed by 1 ¾ lengths and paid $40.40 to win.
With the favorite finishing fifth, Bandolera’s Gold was also the key to unlocking some glittering payoffs such as $180.80 for the $2 exacta, $1,190.60 for the $2 trifecta and $4,727.40 for the $1 superfecta.
THE LESSON: In a weak race, sometimes a little form can go a long way toward pointing out attractive longshots.