Road to the Breeders’ Cup: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down
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I'm a Chatterbox won the Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes decisively on Sept. 19 at Parx Racing to stamp herself a top contender for the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff on Oct. 30 at Keeneland Race Course. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
A capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Road to the Breeders’ Cup World Championships and three horses whose Breeders’ Cup chances are not quite as strong as they were a week or two ago.
Heating Up
1. I'm a Chatterbox
Eclipse Sportswire
My first thought, immediately after the Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes on Sept. 19, was: “there’s this year’s Distaff winner.” Part of my reasoning is based on the assumption that two-time champion Beholder continues to target the Breeders’ Cup Classic rather than the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff, and the other part is based on I'm a Chatterbox’s consistent excellence on the racetrack in 2015. She has finished in the top three in each of her seven starts this year and crossed the finish line first five times. The only reason the Cotillion was I’m a Chatterbox’s first official Grade 1 win was because of a controversial disqualification in the Coaching Club American Oaks, a race in which I thought she was clearly best. A chestnut filly by Munnings, I’m a Chatterbox established a new career-best Equibase Speed Figure of 106 in the Cotillion and has displayed versatility throughout her career, winning from well off the pace, stalking the early leaders and leading from start to finish. I’m a Chatterbox also is in the hands of one of the best trainers of female horses of this generation in Larry Jones, who is seeking his first Breeders’ Cup win after two seconds and one fourth with four career starters.
2. Frosted
Eclipse Sportswire
Frosted ended a four-race losing streak in the Grade 2, $1-million Pennsylvania Derby and equaled his career-top Equibase Speed Figure of 111. Even though he had not won a race since the Grade 1 Twinspires.com Wood Memorial Stakes in April, Frosted had turned in some strong races. He finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby and second in the Belmont Stakes before a runner-up finish in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes. He regressed slightly when third behind Keen Ice and Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in the $1.6-million Travers Stakes, but the Pennsylvania Derby victory as the even-money favorite should serve as both a nice confidence booster and an ideal steppingstone for the Breeders’ Cup. He also didn’t appear to overextend himself in victory, which figures to set him up for a big race in the Breeders’ Cup off of six weeks of rest. Frosted could be a candidate for the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, in which he’d probably be one of the favorites, but horses with his Triple Crown credentials almost always opt for the $5-million Classic. He hasn’t shown me enough to warrant a win bet in the Classic, but he definitely would be a candidate to finish in the top three.
3. Super Majesty
Reed Palmer/Churchill Downs
I’ve not read that Super Majesty is being pointed to the Breeders’ Cup World Championships, but I think highly enough of this lightly raced filly by 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver to give her a spot on this list. She won her first two starts by a combined margin of 21 ½ lengths and posted Equibase Speed Figures of 102 (superb for a debut) and 113. She finished second when stretching out to a mile at Del Mar in August but still managed a triple-digit speed figure before making her stakes debut for Hall of Famer Jerry Hollendorfer in the Grade 3 Dogwood Stakes on Sept. 19 at Churchill Downs. Super Majesty flashed her dazzling speed in the Dogwood to set a swift pace in the Dogwood and ran the opposition off their feet in a visually impressive 1 ¾-length victory. She earned a 104 Equibase Speed Figure that places her within range of the leading contenders for the Breeders’ Cup Filly and mare Sprint and her career-best speed figure places her right among the top female sprinters. With only four starts under the saddle, moving on to the Breeders’ Cup would be a huge task for Super Majesty, but her speed would play well at Keeneland Race Course, her talent is legit and she has a strong pedigree. Super Majesty is out of Grade 3 stakes winner Gins Majesty, by Go For Gin. Gins Majesty os a half-sister (same dam [mother], different sire [father]) to 2009 Breeders' Cup Sprint victor Dancing in Silks.
Honorable Mentions: Recepta and Mr Speaker
Recepta was incredibly impressive in winning the Grade 3 Noble Damsel Stakes for her second straight stakes win at a mile on the grass. Her speed figures of 115 and 116 for the two wins place her in elite company among turf females, but I’m not sure she’d have the ability to tackle top male turf milers in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. On the other hand, she’s never been better. … It was great to see Mr Speaker bounce back from an unplaced finished with a dominant win in the Grade 2 Commonwealth Cup Stakes, which used to be the Colonial Turf Cup. His fourth-place finish entering the Commonwealth Cup wasn’t anywhere near as bad as it looked on paper and he essentially paired speed figures with the win, which means he could be poised to take a step forward. The big concern is that he doesn’t seem suited for the 1 ½ miles of the Breeders’ Cup Turf and he probably wants a little more ground than the Mile. Still, you could do much worse than a well-bred colt in fine form from a Hall of Fame barn when looking for a potential upset play for the Breeders’ Cup.
Cooling Down
1. Force the Pass
Eclipse Sportswire
I hitched my wagon to Force the Pass after a fantastic victory in the $1.25-million Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes. I thought he was a slam dunk in the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes on Aug. 15, but he finished third in what was nonetheless a career-best race by Equibase Speed Figure (114). I can’t, however, forgive his third-place finish in the Commonwealth Derby (the race formerly known as the Virginia Derby) as the 2-to-5 favorite over a field he appeared to tower over on paper. Force the Pass had put together a string of four wins and a close second in five starts earlier this year, but after consecutive third-place finishes, he’s headed in the wrong direction. I’d be surprised if he ends up competing at the Breeders’ Cup given his decline in form.
2. Madefromlucky
Coady Photography
I often find the West Virginia Derby to be a difficult race to evaluate. I’m not sure exactly why that is, but I suspect it’s because it’s held at a track that I don’t follow as closely, Mountaineer, as some of the other major tracks around the country. This year’s winner, Madefromlucky, appeared to me to be especially impressive in charging from off the pace to win going away while posting a new career-best Equibase Speed Figure of 108. I really liked Madefromlucky earlier in the season after he won the Peter Pan Stakes in his prep for the Belmont Stakes, but he turned in a clunker in the final jewel of the Triple Crown when he was beaten by 17 ¾ lengths. The West Virginia Derby seemed to indicate a return to top form that would set him up for a big race in the Pennsylvania Derby on Sept. 19. But instead, Madefromlucky never factored in any way and finished a nonthreatening seventh, beaten by 13 ¾ lengths. Madefromlucky is a very nice horse, but at this point I think he’s just a notch below the best male dirt horses, and I suspect he’d be in over his head at the Breeders’ Cup.
3. Embellish the Lace
Eclipse Sportswire
Embellish the Lace scored a breakthrough win in the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes on Aug. 22 when she set the pace uncontested. She faced a challenge early in the Cotillion and ran out of fuel in the stretch, fading to fifth, beaten by 5 ¼ lengths. The bay filly by Super Saver did not take a huge step back by Equibase Speed Figure, dropping from a 100 to a 98, but you’d have to think she would be challenged up front if her connections press on to the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff, and the hunch here is she might be just a cut below the best horses currently in the hunt for the Distaff. On the other hand, she did post a clear win over I'm a Chatterbox in the Alabama, so if that one is my leading candidate for the Distaff, I can’t completely dismiss Embellish the Lace, especially on a Keeneland main track that seems to play very well to early speed. She takes a step back, but not as big of a step as you might think.
Racing Terms
Allowance race – A race for which the racing secretary drafts certain conditions to determine weights to be carried based on the horse’s age, sex and/or past performance.
Also-eligible – A horse officially entered for a race, but not permitted to start unless the field is reduced by scratches below a specified number.
Apprentice – A rider who has not ridden a certain number of winners within a specified period of time. Also known as a “bug,” from the asterisk used to denote the weight allowance such riders receive.
Blinkers – A cup-shaped device that limits a horse’s vision. Blinkers, often used to try to improve a horse’s focus, come in a variety of sizes and shapes to allow as little or as much vision as the trainer feels is necessary.
Bullet – The fastest workout of the day at a track at a particular distance.
Claiming race – A race in which each horse entered is eligible to be purchased at a set price.
Closer – A horse that runs best in the latter part of the race, coming from off the pace.
Connections – Persons identified with a horse, such as owner, trainer, jockey and stable employees.
Disqualification – Change in order of finish by stewards for an infraction of the rules.
Dam – The mother of a horse.
Entry – Two or more horses with common ownership that are paired as a single betting unit in one race.
Front-runner – A horse whose running style is to attempt to get on or near the lead at the start of the race and to continue there as long as possible.
Furlong – An eighth of a mile.
Graded race – A non-restricted race with added money or guaranteed purse value of $100,000 or more which has been run at least twice under similar conditions and on the same surface and has been assigned graded status for the year contested by the American Graded Stakes Committee.
Handicap – This race type refers to a race where the weights are assigned by the track’s racing secretary or handicapper based upon past performances.
Length – A measurement approximating the length of a horse, used to denote distance between horses in a race.
Off track – A track that has a wet surface and isn’t labeled as “fast”.
Pacesetter – The horse that is running in front (on the lead).
Past performances – A horse’s racing record, earnings, bloodlines and other data, presented in composite form.
Prep – A workout (or race) used to prepare a horse for a future engagement.
Post Parade – Horses going from paddock to starting gate past the stands. The post parade provides spectators with a chance to get a final look at the horse before the race.
Post Position – Position of stall in starting gate from which a horse begins a race.
Rabbit – A speed horse running as an entry with another, usually a come-from-behind horse. The rabbit is expected to set a fast pace to help the chances of its stablemate.
Rank – A horse that refuses to settle under a jockey’s handling in a race, running in a headstrong manner without respect to pace.
Scratch – To be taken out of a race before it starts.
Silks – Jacket and cap worn by jockeys.
Sire – Father of a foal.
Stakes – A race for which the owner usually must pay a fee to run a horse. The fees can be for nominating, maintaining eligibility, entering and starting, to which the track adds more money to make up the total purse. Some stakes races are by invitation and require no payment or fee.