Can Bayern Regain Winning Stride in Awesome Again?

Bayern, above winning the 2014 Breeders' Cup Classic, has a chance to halt a four-race winless stretch on Saturday at Santa Anita Park in the $300,000 Awesome Again Stakes. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
By Ellis Starr – National Racing Analyst for Equibase
The fourth running of the Grade 1, $300,000 Awesome Again Stakes, which offers the winner an automatic starting spot in the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Oct. 31, brings together a field of eight. Among the group for Saturday’s race at Santa Anita Park, only Bayern and Hard Aces have won Grade 1 races previously. Bayern earned his most recent Grade 1 win when leading from start to finish in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, which was also the last time he raced at Santa Anita. Hard Aces earned his victory at that level —considered the highest level of racing in North America — in June when victorious in the Grade 1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita. Among the rest of the field, Point Piper, Global View and Smooth Roller just finished first, second and fourth, respectively, in the Harry F. Brubaker Stakes, while Sammy Mandeville rallied from last of 11 to finish second in the Grade 3 Longacres Mile Handicap. Hoppertunity won the Grade 2 San Pasqual Stakes at Santa Anita in January, but he is winless in five races since. Imperative brings an even longer losing streak into the race as he has gone winless in 10 races since taking the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic in April 2014.
Bayern is at his best when allowed to lead early and appears to have a significant early pace edge in the Awesome Again, with none of the other seven runners ever having had the lead in the early stages of a race. Although winless in four races since his mild upset win at 6.10-to-1 odds last fall in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Bayern didn’t see the lead in his first two starts of the year and then had to battle head-to-head for the lead in his other two races before tiring late. In only one of those races, the San Diego Handicap in July, did Bayern show any fight in the late stages, holding third and earning a 110 Equibase Speed Figure, similar to the 112 figure earned in last year’s Classic. However, none of those races was at Santa Anita, where Bayern is a perfect 3-for-3. With the return to the track he likes combined with the fact that he should have an easy early lead, Bayern has a pretty high probability to win this year’s Awesome Again.
Point Piper, a Kentucky bred, began his career in Ireland then ran in Oklahoma, Kentucky, Louisiana and Texas before arriving in California this spring. Moved to the barn of top trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, Point Piper ran dismally on turf when eighth of nine in his local debut in July. However, when moved to the main track for the Harry F. Brubaker Stakes last month, Point Piper ran the best race of his life, earning a 112  Equibase Speed Figure, a number on par with the figure Bayern earned in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic on this track. With a strong workout locally coming into the race and very likely to show further improvement, if Point Piper can stay close to Bayern so that he’s within a length or two with an eighth of a mile to go, he could post the upset win in this race.
POINT PIPER WINNING BRUBAKER STAKES

BENOIT photo
Global View has run almost exclusively on turf (12 of 15 races) but when moved to dirt last month for the Brubaker he ran one of the best races of his career. After stalking in third in the early stages, Global View made the lead with an eighth of a mile to go but could not hold off the late charge of Point Piper, coming up a half-length short. Just the same, he earned a 111 speed figure with the effort and came back to work a very strong half-mile at Santa Anita, which demonstrates he likes the surface. As such, Global View should not be counted out as a contender in the Awesome Again.
About the others: Hard Aces, Imperative and Sammy Mandeville do their best running from far back, particularly when the early pace is faster than average and contested. That scenario is unlikely in this race, so they may be confined to minor awards. Additionally, the 96 Equibase Speed Figure Hard Aces earned in the Gold Cup is far below par for the level, so he would have to improve considerably to beat any of the three main contenders. Imperative earned a 119 speed figure when winning the 2014 Charles Town Classic and a 116 figure when second in the same race this year, but away from Charles Town he is 0-for-9 and not nearly as good. Sammy Mandeville earned a career-best 111 speed figure in the Longacres Mile Handicap last month, but his chances also appear compromised by the pace scenario and he has never won even a Grade 3 stakes race. Hoppertunity doesn’t appear to be the same horse he was last year when winning the Grade 1 Clark Handicap with a 118 speed figure. Except for a nose defeat in the Gold Cup behind Hard Aces in June with a dismal 96 figure, he hasn’t shown much at all this year. Smooth Roller finished fourth in the Brubaker last month at Del Mar, but other than that he is just a first-level allowance winner and appears overmatched.
My Selections:
Bayern
Point Piper
Global View 
Click here for Ellis Starr’s detailed analysis and selections for the entire Santa Anita card at Equibase.com
$300,000 Awesome Again StakesSaturday, Santa Anita Park, Race 10, 8 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds and older

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owners

Odds

1

Hard Aces

Victor Espinoza

John Sadler

Hronis Racing

TBD

2

Sammy Mandeville

Rafael Bejarano

Doug O'Neill

W. C. Racing

TBD

3

Point Piper

Mario Gutierrez

Jerry Hollendorfer

Gatto Racing, Jusso or Schlaich, et al

TBD

4

Global View

Drayden Van Dyke

Tom Proctor

Glen Hill Farm

TBD

5

Hoppertunity

Mike Smith

Bob Baffert

Pegram, Watson or Weitman

TBD

6

Imperative

Corey Nakatani

Richard Baltas

KM Racing Enterprise

TBD

7

Smooth Roller

Tyler Baze

Victor Garcia

Lucky Charm Stable

TBD

8

Bayern

Martin Garcia

Bob Baffert

Kaleem Shah

TBD