Road to the Breeders’ Cup: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down

Smooth Roller scored a visually impressive victory in the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes on Sept. 26 at Santa Anita Park to earn his first career stakes win and punch his ticket to the $5-million Breeders’ Cup Classic. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
A capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Road to the Breeders’ Cup World Championships and three horses whose Breeders’ Cup chances are not quite as strong as they were a week ago. 
This week’s blog requires a bit more explanation given the volume of quality prep races last week for the Breeders’ Cup World Championships. There were several outstanding performances that should set up elite runners for a big day at the Breeders’ Cup, but in many instances those winners already were clearly at the top of their division. For example, Beholder was brilliant as usual in the Zenyatta Stakes against a field she towered over from a class perspective. As the top older female in training and one of the top two candidates for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, she’s not really heating up; in fact, she was scorching after her runaway win against males in the TVG Pacific Classic.
Similarly, Songbird was my top contender for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and her new career-top Equibase Speed Figure for winning the Chandelier Stakes confirmed that. I’ve also had Rock Fall as one of my top two sprinters for much of the year. With Equibase Speed Figures of 118, 117, 117, 117 in his last four starts, he not only very fast, he’s consistently very fast, but there’s no place to ascend when you are at the top. Think along the same lines for Wedding Toast’s Beldame Stakes win and La Verdad’s victory in the Gallant Bloom Stakes. Nyquist, on the other hand, won the Grade 1 FrontRunner but did not, to me, look as electric in victory. I couldn’t put him as a trending down off a Grade 1 win, but he won’t be my pick for the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile off a 16-point drop in Equibase Speed Figure.
My focus was on the most significant risers and fallers with respect to the Breeders’ Cup World Championships.
Heating Up

1. Smooth Roller 

Eclipse Sportswire 

How could he not top this list? Smooth Roller a horse who had never started in a race in mid-June and ascended in three months to a legitimate contender for the $5-million Breeders’ Cup Classic. Meteoric rise is an often-overused phrase, but in this case it is completely appropriate. Smooth Roller’s 5 ¼-length tour de force in the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes punched his Classic ticket and announced his presence as a major player in the older male division. He debuted on June 27 with a clear win that earned a 100 Equibase Speed Figure and he has increased that number in every start to a 103 then a 109 and a career-best 115 in the Awesome Again. It would be hard to imagine this 5-year-old by Hard Spun could topple giants such as Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and two-time champion Beholder in just his fifth-career start, but he clearly is very talented. It would not be a shock to see him hit the board in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. A half-brother (same dam [mother], different sire [father]) to Grade 3-placed winner Elite Alex, Smooth Roller has made a huge impact in a very short timeframe. 

2. Photo Call

Eclipse Sportswire  

In the immediate aftermath of the Rodeo Drive Stakes, I didn’t expect to like Photo Call’s win as much as I do. She went through an opening between horses and charged clear to win by 2 ¼ lengths on Sept. 26 at Santa Anita Park and earned a starting spot in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. There is plenty to like about Photo Call, starting with her improving form. After a disappointing try in her first start in a Grade 1 race in the Just a Game Stakes in June, Photo Call finished third in the Perfect Sting Stakes but posted what was then a new career-best Equibase Speed Figure of 108. She then earned her first U.S. stakes win in the Grade 3 Violet Stakes before winning the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive and raising her top speed figure to a 117. That places her at a level that indicates she should be competitive with top turf females for the Filly and Mare Turf. Photo Call also has a strong pedigree. She’s by top Irish stallion Galileo out of French Group 3 winner Theann, who is a half-sister (same dam [mother], different sire [father]) to Irish classic winner Halfway to Heaven. Photo Call is in the capable hands of trainer Graham Motion, whose record in the Breeders’ Cup — three wins, five seconds and one third with 30 starters — shows he knows how to have a good one ready for a target race. I do think probable favorite Legatissimo figures to be very formidable in the Filly and Mare Turf, but Motion toppled heavy chalk Midday with 46-to-1 Shared Account in this race in 2010, so be sure to give this one a long look.

3. Tin Type Gal 

NYRA photo

I'm going right back to Graham Motion for the third horse on the heating up list, Tin Type Gal, who improved to 2-for-2 on the grass when winning the Grade 3 Miss Grillo Stakes for 2-year-old fillies on Sept. 27. She edged a very game Thrillled to win by a nose and place herself in position to be one of the favorites for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. From a pedigree standpoint, it’s impossible to knock Tin Type Gal, although you can see why Motion tried her on dirt in her first start. She’s by leading U.S. sire Tapit out of 2007 Personal Ensign Stakes (a 1 ¼-mile, Grade 1 dirt race) winner Miss Shop. Miss Shop was a talented racehorse, winning three graded stakes and finishing in the top three in five Grade 1 races with the one win coming in the aforementioned Personal Ensign. Miss Shop also is a half-sister to Grade 2 winner and 2010 Haskell Invitational Stakes runner-up Trappe Shot who, like Tin Type Gal, is by Tapit. Tin Type Gal improved from an 87 Equibase Speed Figure in her grass debut to a 90 in the Miss Grillo and we mentioned Motion’s Breeders’ Cup record above: three wins, five seconds and one third with 30 starters. Tin Type Gal figures to be very dangerous in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Honorable Mention: Big Blue Kitten

Eclipse Sportswire

This was the toughest omission from the top three because, while Big Blue Kitten has consistently been near the top of the turf male division all year, his win in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes was extremely impressive on several levels. First, he rallied from 19 lengths off the pace to win by three-quarters of a length. He also set a new turf course record of 2:23.39, which also happens to be the fastest 1 ¼ miles ever recorded at Belmont Park, including Secretariat’s 1973 Belmont Stakes. I understand that Secretariat’s Belmont came on dirt, so it’s really comparing apples to oranges, and I’m not placing him at the level of one of the sport’s giant, but it takes a heckuva horse to traverse that distance in that fast of a time. Big Blue Kitten has recorded Equibase Speed Figures of 119, 121, 119 and 114 in his previous four races, so we know he’s both fast and consistent. But this type of performance was not unexpected. He already rated as one of the top turf horses in the U.S., so he didn’t have as far to rise as the horses listed above, but Big Blue Kitten served up a timely reminder of his ability.

Cooling Down

1. Red Rifle 

Eclipse Sportswire

Horse racing is a tough sport to crack. I held out as a non-believer on Red Rifle all season, until his a runner-up finish to highly regarded Flintshire in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer Stakes that followed back-to-back graded stakes wins. I then bought in on Red Rifle and he turned in a clunker in the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes, finishing fourth, beaten by seven lengths. The Turf Classic represented a steep drop from a 129 Equibase Speed Figure down to a 106 for the Turf Classic that indicates he’s headed the wrong way with the Breeders’ Cup coming quickly on the horizon. Can he bounce back? Of course. He’s got trainer Todd Pletcher in his corner and a track record of success, but I much prefer a horse at his very best when making selections for the Breeders’ Cup. That’s a difficult spot to hope for a rebound.

2. Hard Not to Like     

Coady Photography 

Talk about a head-scratcher, Hard Not to Like’s eighth-place finish in the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive Stakes would have been nearly impossible to see coming. Following back-to-back Grade 1 wins in the Gamely and Diana Stakes, Hard Not to Like carved out a spot among the best female horses on turf in the U.S. The 117 Equibase Speed Figure earned in winning the Diana indicated she should be able to compete with the best of the best in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. It’s possible she just regressed in the Rodeo Drive off of the huge performance in the Diana, but I would have really liked to see her fight a little more in the stretch. It’s one thing to finish fourth or fifth in a race where the top half-dozen are separated by a couple of lengths, but finishing more than five lengths back while never threatening is far more concerning. She’s one of my favorite horses in training, so I was definitely hoping for better in the Rodeo Drive.

3. Bayern  

Eclipse Sportswire 

You could make a case (and more than few people have) that Bayern had already cooled off and the Awesome Again Stakes on Sept. 26 just reinforced the notion that his best days were behind him. Bayern’s San Diego Handicap third-place finish on July 25 — beaten by 1 ¼ length while earning a season-best 110 speed figure — offered a glimmer of hope for me, even though he subsequently delivered a dud in the TVG Pacific Classic. The thing about Bayern is, he’s always tossed out the occasional clunker, but usually those races came when he was taken out of his game. The Bayern who showed up in the Awesome Again clearly was not the Bayern who won the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Haskell Invitational Stakes and Pennsylvania Derby as a 3-year-old in 2014. The Awesome Again set up perfectly for Bayern as he was uncontested on the lead through very sensible fractional times and just didn’t have that determination in the stretch that we saw in 2014. Bayern subsequently was retired. He had a fantastic career, amassing $4,454,930 in earnings with six wins from 15 starts, but Bayern will not have a chance at a repeat win in the 2015 Classic.

Racing Terms
Allowance race – A race for which the racing secretary drafts certain conditions to determine weights to be carried based on the horse’s age, sex and/or past performance.
Also-eligible – A horse officially entered for a race, but not permitted to start unless the field is reduced by scratches below a specified number.
Apprentice – A rider who has not ridden a certain number of winners within a specified period of time. Also known as a “bug,” from the asterisk used to denote the weight allowance such riders receive.
Blinkers – A cup-shaped device that limits a horse’s vision. Blinkers, often used to try to improve a horse’s focus, come in a variety of sizes and shapes to allow as little or as much vision as the trainer feels is necessary.
Bullet – The fastest workout of the day at a track at a particular distance.
Claiming race – A race in which each horse entered is eligible to be purchased at a set price.
Closer – A horse that runs best in the latter part of the race, coming from off the pace.
Connections – Persons identified with a horse, such as owner, trainer, jockey and stable employees.
Disqualification – Change in order of finish by stewards for an infraction of the rules.
Dam – The mother of a horse.
Entry – Two or more horses with common ownership that are paired as a single betting unit in one race.
Front-runner – A horse whose running style is to attempt to get on or near the lead at the start of the race and to continue there as long as possible.
Furlong – An eighth of a mile.
Graded race – A non-restricted race with added money or guaranteed purse value of $100,000 or more which has been run at least twice under similar conditions and on the same surface and has been assigned graded status for the year contested by the American Graded Stakes Committee.
Handicap – This race type refers to a race where the weights are assigned by the track’s racing secretary or handicapper based upon past performances.
Length – A measurement approximating the length of a horse, used to denote distance between horses in a race.
Off track – A track that has a wet surface and isn’t labeled as “fast”.
Pacesetter – The horse that is running in front (on the lead).
Past performances – A horse’s racing record, earnings, bloodlines and other data, presented in composite form.
Prep – A workout (or race) used to prepare a horse for a future engagement.
Post Parade – Horses going from paddock to starting gate past the stands. The post parade provides spectators with a chance to get a final look at the horse before the race.
Post Position – Position of stall in starting gate from which a horse begins a race.
Rabbit – A speed horse running as an entry with another, usually a come-from-behind horse. The rabbit is expected to set a fast pace to help the chances of its stablemate.
Rank – A horse that refuses to settle under a jockey’s handling in a race, running in a headstrong manner without respect to pace.
Scratch – To be taken out of a race before it starts.
Silks – Jacket and cap worn by jockeys.
Sire – Father of a foal.
Stakes – A race for which the owner usually must pay a fee to run a horse. The fees can be for nominating, maintaining eligibility, entering and starting, to which the track adds more money to make up the total purse. Some stakes races are by invitation and require no payment or fee.