Effinex, Tonalist Renew Rivalry in Jockey Club Gold Cup

Effinex (right) and Tonalist square off again in Saturday's Jockey Club Gold Cup after finishing 1-2 in the Suburban Handicap in July. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
The 97th running of the Grade 1, $1-million Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes at Belmont Park features a rematch between Effinex and Tonalist. The only time these two tough competitors faced each other previously was in the Grade 2 Suburban Handicap in July at the same 1 ¼-mile trip and over the same track.
In the Suburban, Effinex beat Tonalist by a head, both horses arguably running the best races of their career. This time there is even more on the line than the winner's share of the $1 million purse as the victor also earns an automatic starting spot in the Breeders' Cup Classic in four weeks at Keeneland. The rest of the six horse Jockey Club Gold Cup field consists of Coach Inge, Constitution, Looks to Spare and Wicked Strong.
Although it may be a tossup in terms of probability between Effinex and Tonalist based on the last time they met, the fact Effinex opens at 6-1 odds versus 6-5 odds for Tonalist has to tip the scales in favor of the former. Effinex got really good this spring, winning his first race as a 4-year-old in March with a career-best 122 Equibase Speed Figure in an allowance race, before winning the Excelsior Stakes at 10 furlongs with a 118 figure. He didn't finish in the Brooklyn Invitational Stakes after that, but redeemed himself when winning the Suburban, tying his best figure at 122. He regressed when a non-threatening fourth after that in the Woodward Stakes, but that effort may be excused because he acted up in the gate and may have become unnerved. His workout at Belmont on Sept. 20 was the third-best of 61 on the day for a half-mile, signaling he's back in form, and as such Effinex has every right to run as he did in the Suburban to take top honors in this year's Jockey Club Gold Cup.
Tonalist ran the best race of his career when making his first start of 2015 as a 4-year-old. He won the Westchester Stakes in May at Belmont with a strong 124 figure, before a fine runner-up effort behind Honor Code in the Metropolitan Handicap. Honor Code went on to win the Whitney Stakes after that to stamp himself one of the favorites for the upcoming Breeders' Cup Classic but is passing this race to run in the shorter Kelso Handicap on the card as his Classic prep.
In the Whitney, Tonalist was made the lukewarm favorite and found himself farther back early, about 18 lengths, than he had ever been in a race. Even making up 16 lengths wasn't enough, as his rally was too late to get to Honor Code or pacesetter Liam's Map, who held second. However, back at the mile and one-quarter trip of the Suburban and back at Belmont, where four of his five career wins have come, Tonalist could redeem himself and punch his ticket to the Breeders' Cup Classic at the same time.
Coach Inge has only run this 10-furlong trip once before, when third behind Effinex and Tonalist in the Suburban. Coach Inge had won the 1 ½-mile Brooklyn Invitational Stakes prior to that, leading mostly start to finish on a slow pace, but in the Suburban he set a very fast early pace before being run down late, still earning a career-best 120 figure. Coming back in the Woodward Stakes last month, Coach Inge had no chance to get the early lead he likes as Liam's Map was more intent on having the lead from the start, so Coach Inge settled into a stalking position before moving up from third in the early stages then getting second at the end. In the Jockey Club Gold Cup, with only one other horse (Constitution) having shown a desire to lead early, Coach Inge should be in front or close to a slow pace throughout more like he was in the Brooklyn, which gives him a fine chance to be in the thick of the action on the wire.
Regarding the rest: Constitution earned a 117 figure when winning the Donn Handicap in February in his first start of the year, but then went on the shelf until last month when trying turf for the first time, fading badly to fifth after leading from the start. He has never raced at 10 furlongs and I would need to see a better effort than the one put in last month before endorsing him. Wicked Strong is winless in seven starts since victory in the Jim Dandy Stakes last summer and missed by a nose in the Travers Stakes with a then-career-best 112 figure. He doesn't appear to be the same horse that won two graded stakes in 2014. Looks to Spare could have been purchased out of a $5,000 claiming race last December and, although the recent winner of the West Virginia Governor's Cup Stakes in August with a 112 figure, has little chance to do much more than finishing fifth or sixth in this race. 
My selections:EffinexTonalistCoach Inge
$1-million Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes
Saturday, Belmont Park, Race 10, 5:28 p.m. ET
1 ¼ miles, dirt, 3-year-olds 

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owners

Odds

1

Wicked Strong

Joel Rosario

Jimmy Jerkens

Centennial Farms

6-1

2

Coach Inge

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Todd Pletcher

Repole Stable

5-1

3

Constitution

Javier Castellano

Todd Pletcher

WinStar Farm and Twin Creeks Racing Stables

3-1

4

Effinex

Junior Alvarado

Jimmy Jerkens

Tri-Bone Stables

6-1

5

Looks to Spare

Deshawn Parker

Gregory DiPrima

O'zbekiston Racing

30-1

6

Tonalist

John Velazquez

Christophe Clement

Robert S. Evans

6-5