Your Pigskins and Ponies Picks for Oct. 1-4

Welcome to ABR’s Pigskins and Ponies column, where winners play!
Horse racing is my means to an end, and I love the sport like no other, but I admit it, like most of you, on a Sunday afternoon in the fall, it’s hard to pull me away from my couch … and NFL RedZone.
I have a wanted sign in Las Vegas and am feared by fantasy football mavens nationwide, but when it comes to the college game, I choose to punt.
That’s where Derek Cooley comes in. The dude is a loaded gun of university knowledge.
Let’s kick off the football, spring the horses from the gate and pad our bankrolls!
**Lines as of Wednesday Night from scoresandodds.com**
College Pigskins – by Derek Cooley
Last week was quite the impressive feat — the true anomaly. The winless week, something this blog has seen twice so far this year. Unfortunately, last week it was my turn, and I really just wanted to get that out of the way for all you readers. And if you employ the strategy of doing exactly the opposite of what I tell you to ... you could have parlayed quite the pretty penny.
Last week is in the past and we’ll keep it there. We are a little afraid of the water, so we'll just dip our toe in and definitely stay away from that PAC-12!
Short, sweet, simple this week. 
Last week: 0-7
Season Total: 10-16-1 (.385) 
(16) Northwestern -3.5 vs. Minnesota (Saturday, noon, BTN)
Northwestern's victories haven't been pretty, but man have they gotten more and more impressive as the season has gone on. Seeing what Stanford has done and Duke did after falling to Northwestern really has the Cats looking good. Justin Jackson and the Cats running game will provide the difference in this defensive duel. Northwestern by a touchdown.
(13) Alabama +2 @ (8) Georgia (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
If Alabama can stop Nick Chubb, the Crimson Tide will roll. I just don't see Nick Saban's club falling to 3-2 while Mark Richt and Georgia move to 5-0. Just seems highly unlikely to me, regardless of where this game is being played. Alabama will win this one.
Nebraska -6.5 @ Illinois (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, BTN)
Illinois is really, really bad against teams that are any good. Supposedly, about 20,000 Nebraska fans are headed to Champaign-Urbana for this one, making it quite the atmosphere for the Huskers. Huskers by 10.
Maryland +16 vs. (22) Michigan (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, BTN)
Maryland traveled back to College Park with their tails between their legs after getting smacked in the face by West Virginia. Michigan has been flying high after a complete shutdown of BYU at the Big House. These are the perfect ingredients for a competitive game under the lights at Byrd Stadium. Maryland might not win, but this game will be close.
Pickem 2.0: (12) Clemson OVER (6) Notre Dame (Saturday, 8:00 ET, ABC)
Pro Pigskins – by Joe Kristufek
One week after going winless, we came one point away from a perfect record. The New York Giants and Oakland Raiders took care of business and Seattle and Arizona romped as expected. Had Tennessee succeeded in its two-point conversion attempt, Indianapolis could have pushed with a winning field goal, but oh well. 
Last week: 4-1
Season Total: 6-11 (.353)
Thursday, Oct. 1
Baltimore Ravens -2.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers
QB Ben Roethlisberger is out and it’s a short week of preparation for backup Mike Vick, who hasn’t been with the Steelers all that long. The Ravens are desperate. If they don’t win this game against a divisional foe, they’ll be left with an almost impossible climb to the playoffs. They’re better than that.
QB JOE FLACCO AND RAVENS ARE DESPERATE

"Joe Flacco 2014" by Keith Allison - Flickr. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons.
Sunday, Oct. 4
Indianapolis Colts -9 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts were all out to gain a narrow win last week in Tennessee, but it will allow them to breathe a little easier. They were embarrassed in their lone home appearance of the season and will be determined to perform well for their fans. If QB Andrew Luck ever gets some time, he’ll have a field day with the arsenal of weapons he has at his disposal.
Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Washington Redskins
I really believe it’s just a matter of time before the Eagles offense explodes. It might not be this week against a solid Redskins defense, but they should be able to do enough to win. Washington QB Kirk Cousins has been even less impressive than Philadelphia’s Sam Bradford. His offense doesn’t have much improvement potential and a disruptive Eagles defense should be in line for some turnovers. 
Kansas City Chiefs +4 at Cincinnati Bengals and UNDER 45
The Bengals are overachieving and the Chiefs are on the opposite end of that spectrum. Cincinnati could very well enter this matchup overconfident, while Kansas City will be determined to reverse its fortunes. Often referred to as a game manager, QB Alex Smith has handed over some costly turnovers this season and they’re third-down conversion rate is ghastly. If the Chiefs can control the ball with Jamaal Charles, they’ll keep it close and perhaps win outright.
Minnesota Vikings +6.5 at Denver Broncos and UNDER 43
The Broncos have had their share of anxious moments this young season, but somehow they’re 3-0 and much of that success is due to their defense. The Denver running game has been virtually nonexistent, and if the Vikings defense should be able to contain QB Peyton Manning, they’ll look to control the ball with RB Adrian Peterson and take timely shots down the field. A win isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but that number should be covered.
EXPECT MINNESOTA TO FEED DENVER A HEAVY DOSE OF PETERSON

"Adrian Peterson broke Vikings franchise rushing record" by Joe Bielawa - http://www.flickr.com/photos/joebielawa/7970687326/in/set-72157631498123.... Licensed under CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons.
St. Louis Rams +7 at Arizona Cardinals and UNDER 42.5
Arizona is clicking on all cylinders on both sides of the ball. After an opening week upset over Seattle, St. Louis is trying to find themselves again following consecutive losses. The Rams defense is always capable of a big effort, and they’ll likely return QB Carson Palmer and his boys back to earth. With RB Todd Gurley expected to be featured a lot more this week, the St. Louis offense still has some upside.
Ponies – by Joe Kristufek
Unfortunately, none of last week’s selections met expectations. At Churchill Downs, Viva Majorca finished second behind a game Tapiture in the Ack Ack Handicap and Flashy Chelsey ran an even fourth in the Jefferson Cup Stakes. Red Rifle failed to fire his best shot in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont, finishing fourth.
Last week: 3-0-1-0 ($2 WPS * $18 wagered * $4.80 returned)
Season Total: 12-3-3-2 ($2 WPS * $72 wagered * $63.40 returned = $5.28)
Saturday, Oct. 3
Belmont Park – Elmont, N.Y.
Race 10 – Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), 5:28 p.m. ET
#2 Coach Inge (morning-line odds, 5-1)
In a race that isn’t overloaded with speed, this steady and improving 4-year-old by Big Brown could sit the winning trip behind the probable pacesetter — and his stablemate — Constitution. Ten furlongs is right up his alley, and he’d surely welcome an off-track.
Keeneland Race Course – Lexington, Ky.
Race 6 – Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (G2), 4 p.m. ET
#5 Leigh Court (morning-line odds, 3-1)
The defending Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes champ was a bit of a disappointment in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, and she’s only run twice this season, finishing second both times. She’s building up toward championship day, and if the track comes up sloppy, she’s bred to relish it.
Race 9 – Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes (G1), 5:45 p.m. ET
#12 Tourist (morning-line odds, 10-1)
Off for ten months following his 2014 Breeders’ Cup Mile clunker, this 4-year-old by Tiznow made a big splash in his return, scoring a visually impressive win in the ungraded More Than Ready Stakes at Kentucky Downs. The post-position does him no favors here, but if the race gets washed off the grass, he is bred to relish the goo.
KEEP AN EYE ON TOURIST IN SHADWELL TURF MILE

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire