Bram’s Take: Here I Am, Rock You Like a Hurricane

Horses walk onto a rain-soaked track, above, which could be the scenario that faces the contenders for this year's Jockey Club Gold Cup on Saturday at Belmont Park. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
I’m assuming Belmont Park is going to be a muddy mosh pit as Hurricane Joaquin brings the rain. Here’s hoping the meteorologists are wrong in using words like “historic” and “unprecedented” when it comes to the rainfall totals and potential damage that would accompany it.
Here’s also hoping that I’m right in prognosticating the Jockey Club Gold Cup, despite having no clue if the track is going to be a giant sinkhole by the time the field of six enters the starting gate.
I’m not a huge fan of these short fields because, well, I’m selfish and I want to find some value somewhere. In cases like this, there’s only so much juice to try to squeeze out. But four of the six runners have what looks like legitimate shots with two of them at 5-to-1 or better and again, if the track is more suitable for a demolition derby, then all six will be hoping they’ve got the right shoes on and hit just the right spots as they make their way down the long stretch.
So, with all of that in mind, I will try not to be tone deaf here. You expect me to make a pick without excuse, and so I will: Tonalist. But you and I both know that writing this days in advance of a race where the weather can be as big a factor as any stat in the past performances. I withhold my right to say, I am putting an asterisk down and don’t want to hear it from you if Tonalist looks like he’s running in quicksand.
SUPER SATURDAY STARS AT BELMONT

Here’s the field for the Jockey Club Gold Cup, a Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" Challenge Series race that will be televised on NBC, with coverage beginning Saturday at 5 p.m.:
1. Wicked Strong — He gets a chance at redemption in this race where last fall he got impeded, clipped heels and didn’t finish. I don’t want to go existential here but saying we know for certain that a horse doesn’t feel some form of redemptive emotion because it doesn’t communicate like we humans do, might be wrong. Maybe Wicked Strong puts on his best game face. Or maybe, he (like you) thinks I should be sent to a psych ward for even considering that possibility. Here’s definitive reality: his best race over the last 12 months came on turf. This surface may end up feeling really good to him, or he might just get swallowed up in the mud. The results say he’ll end up five lengths back of someone. I don’t know who, but someone.
2. Coach Inge — I love this horse … a true gamer. Pick a distance and he’s there forcing the competition to be at his best or the Inge wins. Back in July, he tried to essentially go wire to wire with Tonalist and Effinex and got caught by both. Based on the short field, which means little to no traffic to contend with, this has the feel of history repeating. But he has won twice on muddy tracks before so conditions don’t seem to make a difference. He’s a compelling bet at 5-1 or better.
3. Constitution — This is one of those classic “woulda, coulda, shoulda” horses. He wins the Florida Derby in 2014 but injuries keep him out of the Kentucky Derby. Back at it here in 2015, and granted there was yet another long break, he appears to be peaking. His last race on turf produced blistering split times, which ultimately didn’t work out to his favor. I’m assuming, not only based on conditions but also because no one figures to try to race like that here, that Constitution can take his foot off the gas a little and try to preserve some fuel for the stretch. But we are who we are and he is a front-runner, which on this track is going to be a problem.
4. Effinex — He’s the classic hit or flop. But here’s what makes him different, you won’t know if he’s got the goods until the final turn. It’s not like most, who just don’t seem to be firing early so you know the score. Effinex is always right there until the turn and then he either makes a move or apparently just doesn’t feel like it that day. He comes off a huge disappointment in the Woodward Stakes, but that’s par for the course. He just didn’t have it that day. We’ll find out at the top of the stretch on Saturday if he feels like going for it or not.
5. Looks to Spare — This horse has raced six more times then Tonalist in his career and, in fact, won more races than him, but he has a career earnings total that is not even one-tenth of the favorite. I hate making things about money but, well, if this horse was of this class, I don’t think he’d drive up to the track in a jalopy. Now, he was a huge bomb winner for those who put some cash on him West Virginia, so because the field is so small and because the track might be a mess, putting him in an exotic and hoping for payout feels like a risk worth taking.
6. Tonalist — He won this race a year ago. No, I won’t go into whether he remembers that. He should, though, considering he was 10 lengths back when he made that sweeping move. Timing this one, if the track is poor, will be interesting because it is just not clearly in his DNA to run near the front. That would be a very interesting tactic, but I assume the connections aren’t going to experiment with another big payday on the line. John Velazquez has been on him the last three races and hasn’t won any of them, so that should give more confidence to those hoping to have someone other than a 6-5 shot win, but all things being equal, I’m inclined to think Johnny V breaks his personal maiden on Tonalist here.
The weather gives me pause in how I see this thing playing out. But, no excuses right? Right. I assume Constitution heads to the front and Coach Inge will be right there with him. The rest of the field seems averse to trying to press the early speed. But I doubt if the track is sloppy that anyone would want to be too far back for fear of not being able to make the run when needed, so I anticipate a tight pack. Does that bother Tonalist? Depends on the pace, but I can’t see it being one that burns anybody out. At the final turn, we find out if Effinex feels like giving this a go or not. I’d expect Tonalist to make his move. Coach Inge will hang tough and either get passed or win. Constitution will have to show a different resolve, otherwise he’ll be lucky to end up hitting the board. So, I’ll take my chances on Tonalist getting there and winning by a length or two over Coach Inge and whoever holds on for show.
The Full Milty: Box them all. That is what the great Milton J. Weinstein (aka Manning Nash) would have done here. Is he likely to end up with less money then he spent? Yes. Is there a distinct possibility that a 5-1 or better horse wins with a 30-1 or better horse sneaking onto the board? YES!!! Do it. 
$1-million Jockey Club Gold Cup StakesSaturday, Belmont Park, Race 10, 5:28 p.m. ET1 ¼ miles, dirt, 3-year-olds

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owners

Odds

1

Wicked Strong

Joel Rosario

Jimmy Jerkens

Centennial Farms

6-1

2

Coach Inge

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Todd Pletcher

Repole Stable

5-1

3

Constitution

Javier Castellano

Todd Pletcher

WinStar Farm and Twin Creeks Racing Stables

3-1

4

Effinex

Junior Alvarado

Jimmy Jerkens

Tri-Bone Stables

6-1

5

Looks to Spare

Deshawn Parker

Gregory DiPrima

O'zbekiston Racing

30-1

6

Tonalist

John Velazquez

Christophe Clement

Robert S. Evans

6-5

WEINSTEIN: I NEED YOU TO WIN THIS RACE FOR ME