Betting the Champagne Stakes on a Budget

Hopeful Stakes winner Ralis isn't a sure bet in Saturday's Champagne at Belmont. (Photo by NYRA)
The Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park is one of a few showcases of America’s top 2-year-olds this weekend. As a part of the Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” series, the victor will punch their ticket to the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile plus get the lion’s share of a $500,000 purse.
Given these horses at this stage of their career are improving at a tremendous rate, these races offer some of the best prices from a wagering perspective. Additionally, much of the field has never raced at one mile, so we are tasked with the challenge of identifying who will stretch out well to this distance.
This marks the return of Ralis (#5), who romped in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga for West Coast trainer Doug O'Neill. I’m going to look beyond this talented colt for a few reasons. While his 5 ¾-length victory in the Hopeful was impressive, a regression is in line. Also, I’m not a huge fan of the decision to ship him back to Del Mar for training following the win and then ship him back cross-country for this race. A sluggish workout tab suggests this horse is far from superior in this position.
I’m keen on Ready Dancer (#3). He broke his maiden last out in a six-furlong (three-quarters of a mile) race at Saratoga, on the heels of two solid efforts at that level. Granted it was not a graded stakes, but Saratoga’s 2-year-olds race in tough company, and in that race he race managed to beat Sail Ahoy by nine lengths. Sail Ahoy went on to win next out at Belmont and also is entered in this race. A nice set of workouts at Belmont indicate he’s taking well to the surface at the track. As if all of that that was not appealing enough, he’s trained by Todd Pletcher, who has won the Champagne an eye-popping three years in a row, and four out of the past five.
Rafting (#6), a Graham Motion trainee, made solid showing on dirt in his win at Saratoga, after making a dud of a debut on turf. Motion has a penchant for getting steady improvement out of his young talents and I think we’ll see this horse make a step forward following his win at seven furlongs. Irad Ortiz Jr., New York’s top rider this year, will be in the irons, which will play in his favor.
Betting on a Budget Strategy:
$2 exacta box: 3, 5, 6
$4 win/place: 3
$500,000 Champagne StakesSaturday, Belmont Park, race 8, 4:18 p.m. ETOne mile, dirt, 2-year-olds 

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owners

Odds

1

Magna Light

Jose Ortiz

Rudy Rodriguez

M. Dubb, M. Imperio, E. Alexander and Bethlehem Stables

6-1

2

Greenpointcrusader

Joe Bravo

Dominick Schettino

St. Elias Stable, MeB Racing Stables and Brooklyn Boyz Stables

5-1

3

Ready Dancer

John Velazquez

Todd Pletcher

Let's Go Stable

5-1

4

Sail Ahoy

Joel Rosario

Shug McGaughey

Phipps Stable

12-1

5

Ralis

Javier Castellano

Doug O'Neill

Reddam Racin

3-1

6

Rafting

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Graham Motion

Wertheimer and Frere

8-1

7

Tale of S'avall

Cornelio Velasquez

Barclay Tagg

Charles E. Fipke

7-2

8

Sunny Ridge

Junior Alvarado

Jason Servis

Dennis A. Drazin

20-1

9

Portfolio Manager

Manuel Franco

Chad Brown

Klaravich Stables and William H. Lawrence

12-1