Road to the Breeders’ Cup: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down

Got Lucky showed she was in elite form on Oct. 4 at Keeneland Race Course with a victory in the Juddmonte Spinster Stakes that should set her up well for the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff on Oct. 30. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
A capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Road to the Breeders’ Cup World Championships and three horses whose Breeders’ Cup chances are not quite as strong as they were a week ago. 
This was another exceptionally difficult week to whittle down the list of horses on the rise with so many quality Grade 1 races and Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” Challenge series stakes. It featured my three most difficult cuts to date: Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Golden Horn, Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes winner Grand Arch and Flower Bowl Invitational Stakes winner Stephanie’s Kitten.
Golden Horn has been one of the best, if not the best, racehorse in Europe for much of the season, so it’s tough to classify him as heating up. After all, he won the QIPCO Irish Champion Stakes in his previous race and earlier this season won the Investec Derby and Coral-Eclipse Stakes. What changed after his dominant two-length win in the Arc de Triomphe was that trainer John Gosden confirmed he will target the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf. He’s should be a heavy favorite and a logical single if you plan on playing multi-race wagers.
Grand Arch has three wins and three seconds in six career races on the turf at Keeneland Race Course, host of the Breeders’ Cup, and is in fantastic form with back-to-back wins that earned Equibase Speed Figures of 123 and 119. Following his Shadwell Turf Mile win on Oct. 3, he’s a legitimate threat in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.
Stephanie’s Kitten finished second in the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf and enters this year’s race off of her two best career speed figures. Don’t sleep on Stephanie’s Kitten, but do keep in mind that she’s unplaced in two races on the grass at Keeneland.
Two other notable winners from last weekend that have a big shot in the Breeders’ Cup but already were serious threats are Tonalist and Runhappy. 
Heating Up

1. Got Lucky 

Eclipse Sportswire 

With two-time champion Beholder targeting the Breeders’ Cup Classic, the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff is ripe for the picking. I think 3-year-old I’m a Chatterbox is a very nice contender, but if you’re looking for an older female with a combination of talent, experience and pedigree, look no further than Got Lucky. She tied a career-best Equibase Speed Figure (115) when winning the Grade 1 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes on Sunday at Keeneland. In her last five starts, she has three wins and two seconds and she’s been either first or second in 12 of her 16 lifetime starts. By 1992 Horse of the Year A.P. Indy, a tremendous stamina influence, Got Lucky is out of the winning Deputy Minister mare Malka, whose graded stakes-winning half-siblings (same dam [mother], different sire [father]) Daydreaming, Girolamo and Accelerator are all by the aforementioned A.P. Indy. Got Lucky is trained by seven-time Eclipse Award winner Todd Pletcher, who won the Distaff in 2004 with Ashado. 

2. Appealing Tale

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Following back-to-back wins in the seven-furlong Pat O’Brien Stakes and the one-mile Kelso Handicap on Oct. 3, Appealing Tale established himself as a very legitimate Breeders’ Cup threat for the Las Vegas Dirt Mile. He is in career-best form with a 115 Equibase Speed Figure for winning the Grade 2 Pat O’Brien and a new top of 118 for the Kelso. This is a versatile Tale of the Cat gelding with the speed to finish second in a Grade 1 sprint and finish second by a head in the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap at 1 1/16 miles. Appealing Tale boasts three wins and three seconds in his previous six starts and his high cruising speed makes him very dangerous on a main track at Keeneland that has been kind to horses who race on or near the lead.

3a. Tepin 

Eclipse Sportswire 

After back-to-back runner-up finishes, Tepin obliterated the opposition in the Grade 1 First Lady Stakes on Oct. 3 at Keeneland Race Course. The 4-year-old Bernstein filly powered away to win by seven lengths in a faster time than males ran for the same distance later on the card in the Shadwell Turf Mile and she did it on grass that was significantly softer than the Turf Mile. Tepin improved from a 106 Equibase Speed Figure in her runner-up finish in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa Stakes to a 114 in the First Lady, seven points off her career-best speed figure and trending in the right direction. She looks poised to take another step forward in the Breeders’ Cup Mile against males and clearly she likes the Keeneland turf. She also has no problem with a little moisture in the ground, a very distinct possibility in late October in Lexington.

3b. New Juvenile Recruits: Brody's Cause

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Greenpointcrusader

Eclipse Sportswire

Rather than try to separate which of the 2-year-old winners belong on the heating up list and which don’t, I decided to just drop them all in here and predict which ones have the best chance to win at the Breeders’ Cup World Championships, because really the juveniles all made a significant leaps in victory. Let’s start with Brody's Cause, winner of the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, and Riker, winner of the Grade 3 Grey Stakes in Canada. Brody’s Cause won his second straight race, improved from an 86 to a 97 Equibase Speed Figure and he looks like he can run all day. By Giant’s Causeway out of 2006 Woodbine Oaks runner-up Sweet Breanna, Brody’s Cause also is in the hands of a great trainer in Dale Romans. Riker won his fourth straight race, the last three of which came in stakes races in front-running fashion. There is some class in his pedigree, he has a win at 1 1/16 miles and Riker has a solid foundation and a steady progression to a 97 career-best Equibase Speed Figure. The big question is whether he will be as effective on the dirt at Keeneland as he has been on the Polytrack at Woodbine. I think both Brody’s Cause and Riker are intriguing for the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. I think Champagne Stakes winner Greenpointcrusader challenges Nyquist for favoritism  in the Juvenile coming off a ten-point jump to a 104 Equibase Speed Figure in the slop on Oct. 3 at Belmont. This regally bred colt by Bernardini is the sixth stakes winner out of Grade 3 winner Ava Knowsthecode and is a full-brother (same dam [mother], same sire [father]) to 2012 Holy Bull Stakes winner Algorithms and a half-brother (same dame, different sire) to Grade 1 winner Justin Phillip and graded stakes winners Keyed Entry and Successful Mission. I think we have three strong Juvenile contenders from last weekend with Brody’s Cause a slight edge as the best. Airoforce, from the family of Grade 1 winner Sea Cadet, looked very strong in winning the Grade 3 Bourbon Stakes on Oct. 4 at Keeneland and deserves consideration for the Juvenile Turf. Darley Alcibiades Stakes winner Gomo earned a breakthrough win and a spot on the Juvenile Fillies with a victory in the slop on Oct. 2. It was a nice step forward but I prefer others in that race. Frizette Stakes winner Nickname rated as the least impressive of this group to me and is not nominated to the Breeders’ Cup, so she would need to be supplemented.

Cooling Down

1. Ralis 

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Ralis looked like a 2-year-old really coming into his own when he won the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes by 5 ¾ lengths and earned a career-best 103 Equibase Speed Figure that placed him among the leaders of the 2-year-old male division. Perhaps he just hated the sloppy track for the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes on Oct. 3 at Belmont Park or maybe he was less effective stretching out and extra eighth of a mile. Whatever the cause his sixth-place finish, beaten by 15 lengths, was a dud at the worst time. Under normal circumstances, I’d be more likely to forgive the effort given it was his first try on a track that wasn’t rated as fast. But with most of his challengers for the Juvenile heading into the race in fantastic form, it’s hard to envision Ralis bouncing back to win. It’s just too much to ask for me.

2. Masochistic     

Coady Photography 

Masochistic had been an absolute monster this season before a ridiculously fast pace in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes took the punch out of him in the stretch. He faded to fourth, beaten by 8 ¼ lengths, in a performance that would be tough to rebound from against the best sprinters in the world at the Breeders’ Cup. He’s proven to be among the fastest of his division, having won the Grade 1 Triple Bend Stakes with a 122 Equibase Speed Figure in June and posted a runner-up finish in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Stakes in July. But it’s tough to justify him over the horse who has beaten him by a clear margin in his last two starts, Wild Dude.

3. Watsdachances  

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Coming off a career-best speed figure (118) for her win (via disqualification) in the Grade 1 Beverly D. Stakes, which was a 20-point jump from her previous start, it’s not surprising that Watsdachances regressed in the Flower Bowl Stakes on Oct. 3. She finished fourth, beaten by 6 ¾ lengths, on the soft turf. The ground, however, should not be viewed as a legitimate excuse as she entered the race with three wins in as many races on soft or yielding turf. She could rebound in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, but with Legatissimo coming over from Europe and a couple of other formidable runners in top form, such as Stephanie’s Kitten, Watsdachances probably rates as at best a longshot capable of finishing third or fourth.

Also of note:Work All Week and Taris 

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

I watched Work All Week’s third-place finish in the Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes on Oct. 2 and my first reaction was that the race would set the defending Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner up well for his repeat bid. But with some additional time to analyze the race, I’m more skeptical. The 103 Equibase Speed Figure was an 18 point decline from his previous race and he just hasn’t been as consistent as he was in 2014 when he was champion male sprinter. The sloppy track wasn’t a legitimate excuse, either, because Work All Week had won his two previous races on wet tracks. Taris is capable of freaky performances and ran her best career race at Keeneland in the 2014 Raven Run Stakes. I expected her to win the Grade 3 L.A. Woman Stakes on Oct. 4 at Santa Anita, but she faded late after getting caught in a crazy speed duel and finished third, beaten by 3 ¾ lengths. It was not a huge step back, but it was a race that I thought we’d see her take a step forward and put herself in position for a monster race in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. That didn’t happen, partly because of the way the race set up. She’s still talented enough to win, but unless the odds are really appealing I’ll be looking for a more consistent filly.

Racing Terms
Allowance race – A race for which the racing secretary drafts certain conditions to determine weights to be carried based on the horse’s age, sex and/or past performance.
Also-eligible – A horse officially entered for a race, but not permitted to start unless the field is reduced by scratches below a specified number.
Apprentice – A rider who has not ridden a certain number of winners within a specified period of time. Also known as a “bug,” from the asterisk used to denote the weight allowance such riders receive.
Blinkers – A cup-shaped device that limits a horse’s vision. Blinkers, often used to try to improve a horse’s focus, come in a variety of sizes and shapes to allow as little or as much vision as the trainer feels is necessary.
Bullet – The fastest workout of the day at a track at a particular distance.
Claiming race – A race in which each horse entered is eligible to be purchased at a set price.
Closer – A horse that runs best in the latter part of the race, coming from off the pace.
Connections – Persons identified with a horse, such as owner, trainer, jockey and stable employees.
Disqualification – Change in order of finish by stewards for an infraction of the rules.
Dam – The mother of a horse.
Entry – Two or more horses with common ownership that are paired as a single betting unit in one race.
Front-runner – A horse whose running style is to attempt to get on or near the lead at the start of the race and to continue there as long as possible.
Furlong – An eighth of a mile.
Graded race – A non-restricted race with added money or guaranteed purse value of $100,000 or more which has been run at least twice under similar conditions and on the same surface and has been assigned graded status for the year contested by the American Graded Stakes Committee.
Handicap – This race type refers to a race where the weights are assigned by the track’s racing secretary or handicapper based upon past performances.
Length – A measurement approximating the length of a horse, used to denote distance between horses in a race.
Off track – A track that has a wet surface and isn’t labeled as “fast”.
Pacesetter – The horse that is running in front (on the lead).
Past performances – A horse’s racing record, earnings, bloodlines and other data, presented in composite form.
Prep – A workout (or race) used to prepare a horse for a future engagement.
Post Parade – Horses going from paddock to starting gate past the stands. The post parade provides spectators with a chance to get a final look at the horse before the race.
Post Position – Position of stall in starting gate from which a horse begins a race.
Rabbit – A speed horse running as an entry with another, usually a come-from-behind horse. The rabbit is expected to set a fast pace to help the chances of its stablemate.
Rank – A horse that refuses to settle under a jockey’s handling in a race, running in a headstrong manner without respect to pace.
Scratch – To be taken out of a race before it starts.
Silks – Jacket and cap worn by jockeys.
Sire – Father of a foal.
Stakes – A race for which the owner usually must pay a fee to run a horse. The fees can be for nominating, maintaining eligibility, entering and starting, to which the track adds more money to make up the total purse. Some stakes races are by invitation and require no payment or fee.