Upset Potential in Queen Elizabeth II Stakes

Blond Me could turn the tables on Sentiero Italia (pictured) in Saturday's Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. (Photo by NYRA/Coglianese Photo)
The 32nd running of the Grade 1, $500,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes at Keeneland brings together a solid field of nine 3-year-old fillies with 28 wins between them, 11 of those coming in stakes. Leading the field in terms of recent accomplishments is Sentiero Italia, winner of both the Grade 2 Lake Placid Stakes and Grade 2 Sands Point Stakes in New York this summer. Except for a loss to undefeated Lady Eli in July, Sentiero Italia has won four races in a row and should be formidable.
However, many of the other eight fillies may have a say in the outcome, with Sands Point runner-up Blond Me (IRE), winner of the Coral Distaff Stakes in July in Great Britain, likely to improve in her second U.S. start. Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon Stakes runner-up Prize Exhibit (GB) and, Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks runner-up Her Emmynency are just two of those with chances to improve.
Others worthy of note include Feathered, who finished second in both the Grade 1 American Oaks and Grade 2 Lake George Stakes this year and Miss Temple City who was second to Sentiero Italia in the Lake Placid then third behind that filly in the Sands Point so may have to settle for a minor award. Mizz Money and Return to Grace finished first and second, respectively, in the Grade 3 Pucker Up Stakes at this distance in August, with Return to Grace improving to win the Dueling Grounds Oaks Stakes in her most recent race. Olorda (GER) rounds out the field. 
Main contenders:
Blond Me won or finished second in four starts in England after a 13th-place debut. She won the Coral Distaff Stakes in July before a neck defeat in the Group 3 Atlanta Stakes on August 22. Blond Me then shipped to the U.S. and ran just three weeks later, rallying from ninth of ten in the early stages to finish second behind 3 ¾-length winner Sentiero Italia in the Sands Point Stakes at Saratoga. In that race, Blond Me was three lengths back with an eighth of a mile to go while Sentiero Italia was already in front by a length and a half. Both ran the last eighth of a mile in 11.8 seconds and I think jockey Junior Alvarado and trainer Andrew Balding may have a strategy of having Blond Me closer to the early pace in this race. From there, her late kick combined with logical improvement second time in the U.S. could help her move forward off a fine 105 Equibase Speed Figure and post the upset in this race. 
If not for finishing fourth behind undefeated Lady Eli in the Belmont Oaks Invitational in June, Sentiero Italia would be entering the Queen Elizabeth II going for her fifth straight win. After finishing seventh in her career debut in March, the filly has been nothing short of perfect. She won four races, and in all but one put in a quick turn of foot to be in front at the eighth pole, holding steady to the wire. Sentiero Italia is a perfect three-for-three at this mile and one-eighth trip and jockey Joel Rosario is in the saddle again after being in the saddle for her last two wins, with 116 and 111 Equibase Speed Figure efforts that would make her tough to beat if repeated. 
Slightly less probable contenders:
Her Emmynency earned a career-best 114 figure when last seen in mid-August in the Del Mar Oaks. She sat off the pace in second for the first mile, made the lead, then was run down late, settling for second by three-quarters of a length. Except for a sixth-place finish in July, Her Emmynency has never been worse than second in five races including a win in the Surfer Girl Stakes last fall as a 2-year-old. She was entered then scratched by her trainer from the Sands Point Stakes (won by Sentiero Italia) in September and so she returns from two months off with both Blond Me and Sentiero Italia having run just a few weeks ago, which could put her at a slight disadvantage. Still, her best effort would be competitive against these fillies. 
Feathered tried turf for the first time in May in her seventh career start, taking to the grass like a duck takes to water. She has finished first or second in all four races since, two of them stakes. In both stakes, she led in the stretch before settling for second, beaten by under a length both times. Feathered got a confidence builder when dropped into allowance company in her most recent start, also showing an off-the-pace running style she had not shown previously. Although she earned a 110 figure when second in the Lake George Stakes on July 24, she regressed to a 99 figure in her last victory and would need to improve considerably to be competitive with the best in here, but that is a distinct possibility.
The rest of the Queen Elizabeth II field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Miss Temple City (114), Mizz Money (98), Olorda (98), Prize Exhibit (112) and Return to Grace (98). 
My selections:Blond MeSentiero ItaliaHer EmmynencyFeathered 
You can get Ellis' detailed analysis and selections for Keeneland at Equibase.com.
$500,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup
Saturday, Keeneland, Race 9, 5:30 p.m. ET
1 1/8 miles, turf, 3-year-old fillies

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

Odds

1

Mizz Money

Robby Albarado

Bernard Flint

L.T.B. Inc. and Hillerich Racing

30-1

2

Prize Exhibit (GB)

Santiago Gonzalez

Jim Cassidy

DP Racing

6-1

3

Miss Temple City

Drayden Van Dyke

Graham Motion

Sagamore Farm, Allen Rosenblum and The Club Racing

5-1

4

Her Emmynency

Florent Geroux

Mike Stidham

Dawn and Ike Thrash

8-1

5

Return to Grace

Joe Rocco, Jr,

Mark Casse

Calumet Farm

15-1

6

Olorda (GER)

Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Chad Brown

Martin Schwartz

15-1

7

Blond Me (IRE)

Junior Alvarado

Andrew Balding

Mrs. Barbara M. Keller

8-1

8

Feathered

Javier Castellano

Todd Pletcher

Eclilpse Thoroughbred Partners

5-1

9

Sentiero Italia

Joel Rosario

Kiaran McLaughlin

Godolphin Racing

6-5