Your Pigskins and Ponies Picks for Oct. 8 - 11

Welcome to ABR’s Pigskins and Ponies column, where winners play!
Horse racing is my means to an end, and I love the sport like no other, but I admit it, like most of you, on a Sunday afternoon in the fall, it’s hard to pull me away from my couch … and NFL RedZone.
I have a wanted sign in Las Vegas and am feared by fantasy football mavens nationwide, but when it comes to the college game, I choose to punt.
That’s where Derek Cooley comes in. The dude is a loaded gun of university knowledge.
Let’s kick off the football, spring the horses from the gate and pad our bankrolls!
**Lines as of Wednesday Night from scoresandodds.com**
College Pigskins – by Derek Cooley
Baby steps ... that's the only way to get back into the green after having "one of those weeks" a few weeks back ... but we won't dwell on that. Overall, pretty solid. Over .500 is always good. 
Clemson hung on and got us a victory, and Northwestern continued to impress with their victory as well. Alabama wasn't going to lose two straight SEC games with their throttling on Georgia.
Nebraska has really regressed, losing at Illinois and costing us a game, and Maryland's offense was nowhere to be found. I still think Maryland would have covered if that game wasn't moved up in the day due to weather.
Either way, 3 - 2 last week is a step in the right direction.
Short, sweet and simple this week, again. We'll keep it at six games. 
Last week: 3-2
Season Total: 13-18-1 (.419)
(10) Oklahoma -16.5 vs. Texas (Saturday, noon ET, ABC)
Texas continues their woes as Baker Mayfield and the Sooners continue to ascend into college football playoffs discussion. Texas has been giving up yards in absolute bunches, and I expect a big performance from Sooners running back Samaje Perine. No Bevo the Longhorn for Texas as well, as he has what's been described as a "life-threatening illness" and won't be making the trip to the Cotton Bowl. We hope Bevo gets well, but we also think Oklahoma still wins big.
(21) Oklahoma State +6.5 @ West Virginia (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
Oklahoma State's wins that have led them to be undefeated to this point in the season haven't been THE prettiest wins, but they clearly do not care and neither should you. A win is a win any way you look at it, and until they lose, they will continue to be just that ... winning. This weekend will be a tough one for Mike Gundy's crew, as they have to play West Virginia in Morgantown at night and anything can happen in the hills at night. I think the loss of Karl Joseph, tied for the nation's lead in interceptions, will loom large for the Mountaineers as the Cowboys keep this close. I think a field goal decides this either way.
(22) Iowa -10.5 vs. Illinois (Saturday, noon ET, ESPNU)
I do not believe in the hype of Illinois ... if there even is any. I'm still not sure how they beat Nebraska, but Wes Lunt is a quality quarterback for the Illini that can win some games for you. But with Josh Ferguson questionable, and this game at the vaunted Kinnick Stadium I'll take C.J. Beathard and the Hawkeyes to win easily and remain undefeated.
(5) Utah -7 vs. (23) California (Saturday, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Jared Goff is the real deal, without question. The California quarterback could very well be the first quarterback drafted in next year’s NFL draft. However, I think Cal as a team is a tad overrated, and we will see that Saturday night in Salt Lake City. They visit a Utah team, rested mind you, that has gotten exponentially better every single week, which was on full display in Eugene two weeks ago. I'll take the Utes by 10 under the lights in Salt Lake City.
Navy +14.5 at (15) Notre Dame (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, NBC)
Keenan Reynolds, Mr. Everything for Navy as quarterback, is nearing the end of an illustrious career and is also on the verge of setting the NCAA record for rushing touchdowns ... as a quarterback. Those are just insane numbers, from an insane career.  Navy has been outstanding so far this year, I mean just great. They could make a case to be in the top 25, especially after their handling of a good Air Force team that took it to Michigan State. I think Notre Dame wins, but a two-touchdown win by ND is still a Navy cover. I would love to see the Midshipmen upset the Irish, but I like them to just simply cover.
KEENAN REYNOLDS IS CLOSING IN ON THE RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS RECORD

Photo courtesy of WikiMedia Commons/EJ-Hersom
Miami +9 @ (12) Florida State (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC)
I kept this one out for some reason, but had to edit and include after going back and forth. Nothing particularly says "Miami is prime for an upset here", but I can see it happening. Dalvin Cook is questionable at the moment for the Seminoles, who haven't impressed much on offense in the first place. Watch the money-line on this game (currently +265 for Miami), I think the Canes pull the upset of the weekend.
Pro Pigskins – by Joe Kristufek
Last week we were a lot smarter than our record would indicate. At the time I hit “send” on the column, there was no indication that Andrew Luck would be inactive, otherwise I would have put a big X on that play (but I counted it anyway).
The Eagles came back in the second half and had the Redskins covered late, only to lose outright. They’re a good team that hasn’t yet learned how to win, but they will.
Against the public, Minnesota took Denver down to the wire and covered and underdog St. Louis edged Arizona in their house. 
Last week: 3-5-1
Season Total: 9-16-1 (.36)
Week 5
Sunday, Oct. 11
Washington Redskins +7 at Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are feeling good about themselves at 4-0 (maybe too good) as are the Redskins at 2-2. Washington is on a high off their comeback win over Philadelphia and their defense should be able to do enough to keep this game close.
St. Louis Rams +8.5 at Green Bay Packers
There’s no questioning how good the Rams defense is and the week four emergence of running back Todd Gurley and wide receiver Tavon Austin bodes well for an improving offense. On the Green Bay side, quarterback Aaron Rodgers is as good as he’s ever been, but the receiving core is a little banged up. The Rams should hang around and cover the number.
TAVON AUSTIN

Photo courtesy of WikiMedia Commons/Johnmaxmena2
Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
The Philadelphia offense started to click in the second half against Washington last week, but after coming all the way back to erase a significant deficit, the defense couldn’t hold the lead late. At home in a must-win game against a marginal Saints defense, this is the week they put it all together. I’m expecting the Eagles to cover the number … and then some. Go to the window.
Seattle Seahawks +3 at Cincinnati Bengals
The Seahawks want nothing more than to go into Cincinnati and put loss number one on the Bengals. Their complete defense will be fired up and will provide a stiff test for Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton, who will return to Earth. Giving the nod to Seattle in what should be a low-scoring affair.
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens UNDER 43.5
The Browns are offensively challenged and with wide receiver Steve Smith, Sr. not expected to play for the Ravens, I’m not sure who Joe Flacco is going to throw the ball to. Expect Baltimore to play safe, try to grind it out on the ground and rely on Justin Tucker, which equals a running clock and a likely under. 
Ponies – by Joe Kristufek
Unfortunately, none of last week’s selections met expectations. At Churchill Downs, Viva Majorca finished second behind a game Tapiture in the Ack Ack Handicap and Flashy Chelsey ran an even fourth in the Jefferson Cup Stakes. Red Rifle failed to fire his best shot in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont, finishing fourth.
Last week: 3-0-1-0 ($2 WPS * $18 wagered * $4.80 returned)
Season Total: 12-3-3-2 ($2 WPS * $72 wagered * $63.40 returned = $5.28)
Friday, Oct. 9
Keeneland Race Course – Lexington, Ky.
Race 9 – The Buffalo Trace Franklin County
#9 Shrinking Violet (morning line odds 8-1)
Coming off a disastrous run at Kentucky Downs as the favorite, this talented grass dasher may fly under the radar. Her victory two back at Del Mar was monstrous, and if she can repeat it, she can also win this. 
Saturday, Oct. 10
Belmont Park – Elmont, N.Y.
Race 9 – The Knickerbocker (G3)
#1 Middleburg (morning line odds 9-2)
This ultra-consistent lawnmower enters this event on top of this game. He enters this race fresh, and is well-drawn on the rail and thus could be in line for an advantageous pocket trip for top turf jockey Joe Bravo, who is enjoying one of the best years of his amazing career. 
MIDDLEBURG (right) LOOKS TO BE AT THE TOP OF HIS GAME

Photo By Bill Denver/EQUI-PHOTO
Keeneland Race Course – Lexington, Ky.
Race 9 – The Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1)
#7 Blond Me (morning line odds 8-1)
In her North American debut, this Euro import outperformed her 16-1 odds by finishing a fast closing second behind likely QEII favorite Sentiero Italia. With an honest pace expected in this one, she may prove tough to deny down the stretch.