Tip of the Week: Mud in Your Eye

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Rain can douse the enthusiasm of some handicappers, especially when it comes to turf races.
A bunch of turfers running out of their element on a muddy main track is hardly an enticing wagering proposition.
Yet these off-the-turf races can also provide an excellent opportunity thanks to main track only entrants. These are horses that can race only if the race is taken off the turf, and by nature these dirt runners usually have an inherent advantage over horses with a fondness for turf.
For the most part, these horses designated as Main Track Only (MTO) are well-bet, but there can be times when excellent wagering value pops up among them.
For example, thanks to Hurricane Joaquin, Belmont Park was reduced to a sea of slop on Oct. 2 and the second race was moved from the bog of the turf course to the main track.
Scratches reduced the field to seven and four of them were MTOs: Super Psyche (the 3-2 favorite), Bustin the Bank (9-1), Baby Snacks (23-1), and Full of Mine (25-1).
While their mere presence as MTOs spoke volumes about the interest each trainer had in running on the main track, being a MTO does not necessarily mean a horse has wet-track experience. And without that benefit of a wet track race, there’s no sure-fire way to tell how a horse might handle the messy conditions.
In this case, neither Super Psyche, Bustin the Bank nor Baby Snacks had wet-track experience.
Only Full of Mine had previously tackled a wet main track. He was second on a track labeled “good” (a wet-fast track) on Feb. 15 in the same type of maiden race as the Oct. 2 race.
Had Full of Mine been 3-1, that fact might not have been compelling. But at 25-1, it called out for further review.
Looking at Full of Mine, in his first seven starts, all in New York-bred maiden special weight races on dirt, he had three second place finishes.
Two starts back, on March 13 at Aqueduct, was the most recent of those runner-up finishes. Then he was given a six-month break before returning to the races with a fifth-place finish.
It wasn’t an overly encouraging comeback effort, yet the 4-year-old colt probably needed the race and it was reasonable to expect a better showing from him in his second race off the layoff.
Add in the wet track angle and 25-1 odds and Full of Mine became an intriguing longshot play.
Those who opened their wallet – not to mention their umbrella - were rewarded when Full of Mine relished the going and posted a one-length victory, returning $52 for a $2 win bet and topping a $354.50 trifecta with Watch the Tie and Super Psyche, who were the two betting favorites.
THE LESSON: Don’t assume that a Main Track Only entrant will naturally handle mud well. Finding good wet track form, especially with some value attached to it, should be your goal in handicapping an off-the-turf race on a sloppy or muddy racetrack.