Road to the Breeders’ Cup: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down

Harmonize earned a spot in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf with a victory in the JPMorgan Chase jessamine Stakes on Oct. 7 at Keeneland Race Course. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
A capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Road to the Breeders’ Cup World Championships and three horses whose Breeders’ Cup chances are not quite as strong as they were a week ago.  
Heating Up

1. Harmonize

Keeneland/Coady 

Yes, she was the even-money favorite for the JPMorgan Chase Jessamine Stakes, but with 2-year-olds making their graded stakes debut, nothing can be taken for granted, especially in a 14-horse field. The bay Scat Daddy filly took care of business by closing from far off the pace to win by a neck despite being forced really wide entering the stretch. Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, Harmonize has two stakes wins at the 1 1/16-mile distance, including one on the course that will host the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. She earned a 90 Equibase Speed Figure, pairing her career top and setting her up to perhaps take another step forward in the Breeders’ Cup. Mott has won nine Breeders’ Cup races from 84 starters but has never won a race with a 2-year-old. 

2. Esoterique  

This 5-year-old Danehill Dancer mare has been very consistent this season and lands on this list based upon the news that she is now targeting the Breeders’ Cup Mile. She has not finished out of the top three in five starts and has a pair of wins and two seconds in her last four races, all at the Group 1 level (the very top level of racing in Europe). Esoterique defeated a very nice horse in Territories in August in a Group 1 race in France when facing males on soft turf and enters off a win on firmer ground in the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes on Oct. 3 in England. Her two seconds before the back-to-back wins also came against males, so she’ll be just fine in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Her trainer Andre Fabre has won four Breeders’ Cup races and her dam (mother), Dievotchka, has produced four group stakes winners among six stakes winners. Tons to like here.

3. Sapphire Kitten 

Keeneland/Coady 

With limited racing last week there was not much to choose from, but I was legitimately impressed with Sapphire Kitten’s runner-up finish in the JPMorgan Chase Jessamine Stakes (Check out this behind-the-scenes feature on Sapphire Kitten in the Jessamine). Making only her second career start, Sapphire Kitten took the lead in the stretch and found valiantly before succumbing very late to Harmonize. She earned the same 90 Equibase Speed Figure that Harmonize was awarded, and I think she might be able to improve with a little more foundation. She entered the Jessamine off a win going six furlongs (three-quarters of a mile) but maybe came up just a little short in a stiff class test in only her second race. Trained by rising star Joe Sharp, the chestnut Kitten’s Joy would be his first starter and I think she has a very good chance to finish in the top three.

Cooling Down

1. Sentiero Italia

Eclipse Sportswire

Back-to-back convincing wins in the Grade 2 Lake Placid and Sands Point Stakes elevated Sentiero Italia into the mix for the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, a remarkable rise for a 3-year-old filly who made her career debut in March at Gulfstream Park. She is unquestionably talented but we saw some regression in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes on Oct. 10 at Keeneland Race Course. Sentiero Italia didn’t deliver a dud in the QEII Cup — she finished third by 2 ¾ lengths — but after Equibase Speed Figures of 116 and 111 for her previous two wins, the nine-point drop to a 102 is troubling. She comes from the barn of an outstanding trainer in Kiaran McLaughlin and reportedly came out of the race in great shape, so I wouldn’t completely count her out, but I prefer to see a horse trending up at this time of year.

2. Work All Week 

Eclipse Sportswire

After finishing third in the Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes, Work All Week still looked like a potential threat for a repeat victory in the Twinspires.com Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Unfortunately, last year’s Eclipse Award winner as champion sprinter came out of that race with a knee injury and was retired by owner Midwest Thoroughbreds and trainer Roger Brueggemann. Work All Week won 13 of 19 career starts, including seven stakes victories, and amassed $1,511,071 in earnings over four seasons.

3a. Territories3b. The Grey Gatsby (below)    

Eclipse Sportswire 

Like stablemate Esoterique, profiled above, Territories would have been a strong contender for the Breeders’ Cup Mile, but trainer Andre Fabre instead opted to target British Champions Day with this English classic-placed Group 1 winner. Territories will remain in training in 2016 and is a European to keep an eye on next year. Likewise, The Grey Gatsby will remain in training at five but will miss a the Breeders’ Cup Turf in lieu of a extended break for trainer Kevin Ryan. The Grey Gatsby is winless in six races this year with three runner-up finishes, including the $6-million Dubai Turf, and one third in Group 1 races in 2015 he would have been a very legit contender in the Turf. Instead, we’ll have to wait a few months to see this fan favorite back on the track again.

Of note: Rachel’s Valentina   

Eclipse Sportswire 

I don’t want to sound alarm bells without merit, which is why she's not on the top three here and just a note, but it’s seems pretty clear that Rachel’s Valentina missed a planned workout last weekend. Any blip on the path to the Longines Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, very much like the Kentucky Oaks or Derby, can be very difficult to overcome. As a huge fan of 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra, I’d love to see her daughter Rachel’s Valentina run well on Breeders’ Cup weekend, which means the next workout for the filly will be key. Keep an eye out for her on the workout tab. Word is she is tentatively scheduled to breeze Friday.

Racing Terms
Allowance race – A race for which the racing secretary drafts certain conditions to determine weights to be carried based on the horse’s age, sex and/or past performance.
Also-eligible – A horse officially entered for a race, but not permitted to start unless the field is reduced by scratches below a specified number.
Apprentice – A rider who has not ridden a certain number of winners within a specified period of time. Also known as a “bug,” from the asterisk used to denote the weight allowance such riders receive.
Blinkers – A cup-shaped device that limits a horse’s vision. Blinkers, often used to try to improve a horse’s focus, come in a variety of sizes and shapes to allow as little or as much vision as the trainer feels is necessary.
Bullet – The fastest workout of the day at a track at a particular distance.
Claiming race – A race in which each horse entered is eligible to be purchased at a set price.
Closer – A horse that runs best in the latter part of the race, coming from off the pace.
Connections – Persons identified with a horse, such as owner, trainer, jockey and stable employees.
Disqualification – Change in order of finish by stewards for an infraction of the rules.
Dam – The mother of a horse.
Entry – Two or more horses with common ownership that are paired as a single betting unit in one race.
Front-runner – A horse whose running style is to attempt to get on or near the lead at the start of the race and to continue there as long as possible.
Furlong – An eighth of a mile.
Graded race – A non-restricted race with added money or guaranteed purse value of $100,000 or more which has been run at least twice under similar conditions and on the same surface and has been assigned graded status for the year contested by the American Graded Stakes Committee.
Handicap – This race type refers to a race where the weights are assigned by the track’s racing secretary or handicapper based upon past performances.
Length – A measurement approximating the length of a horse, used to denote distance between horses in a race.
Off track – A track that has a wet surface and isn’t labeled as “fast”.
Pacesetter – The horse that is running in front (on the lead).
Past performances – A horse’s racing record, earnings, bloodlines and other data, presented in composite form.
Prep – A workout (or race) used to prepare a horse for a future engagement.
Post Parade – Horses going from paddock to starting gate past the stands. The post parade provides spectators with a chance to get a final look at the horse before the race.
Post Position – Position of stall in starting gate from which a horse begins a race.
Rabbit – A speed horse running as an entry with another, usually a come-from-behind horse. The rabbit is expected to set a fast pace to help the chances of its stablemate.
Rank – A horse that refuses to settle under a jockey’s handling in a race, running in a headstrong manner without respect to pace.
Scratch – To be taken out of a race before it starts.
Silks – Jacket and cap worn by jockeys.
Sire – Father of a foal.
Stakes – A race for which the owner usually must pay a fee to run a horse. The fees can be for nominating, maintaining eligibility, entering and starting, to which the track adds more money to make up the total purse. Some stakes races are by invitation and require no payment or fee.